Language:English
Nicolas Mejia v Lorenzo Musetti
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Nicolas Mejia (Local)
Prediction 15.22%6.57fair odd
EV +6.52%
Edge +0.931%
Kelly +1.09%
Growth +0.071%
assuming max odds 7.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.77%15.21%15.26%18.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.206.146.257.0019.23%16.28%16.00%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Lorenzo Musetti (Visit)
Prediction 84.78%1.18fair odd
EV -2.50%
Edge -2.17%
Kelly -16.66%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.89%84.79%84.74%86.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.071.121.121.1593.46%89.20%89.29%86.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nicolas Mejia (Local): 15.22%; Lorenzo Musetti (Visit): 84.78%. For Nicolas Mejia (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.57. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.52%.
Sportsbook Odds (64 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.79%EV +6.52%E +0.931%K +1.09%G +0.071% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 86.21%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -42.03%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-08-05 14:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 6.90I 14.49%NM 13.86%EV +5.00%E +0.724%K +0.847%G +0.042% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.14%EV -5.89%E -5.31%K -53.55%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-05 11:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.23%EV +2.72%E +0.402%K +0.472%G +0.013% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.77%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -42.03%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-05 14:15 |
| GTbets🎯 | 6.71I 14.90%NM 14.19%EV +2.11%E +0.314%K +0.369%G +0.008% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.81%EV -5.89%E -5.31%K -53.55%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-04 10:14 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 6.70I 14.93%NM 14.21%EV +1.95%E +0.292%K +0.343%G +0.007% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.79%EV -5.89%E -5.31%K -53.55%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-05 14:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 6.70I 14.93%NM 14.21%EV +1.95%E +0.292%K +0.343%G +0.007% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.79%EV -5.89%E -5.31%K -53.55%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-05 14:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 6.70I 14.93%NM 14.10%EV +1.95%E +0.292%K +0.343%G +0.007% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.90%EV -6.74%E -6.13%K -67.39%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 11:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 6.70I 14.93%NM 13.77%EV +1.95%E +0.292%K +0.343%G +0.007% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.23%EV -9.28%E -8.68%K -132.60%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-05 05:54 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.92%EV -1.09%E -0.168%K -0.198%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 85.08%EV -3.35%E -2.94%K -23.91%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-08-05 13:24 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -1.09%E -0.168%K -0.198%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -42.03%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -1.09%E -0.168%K -0.198%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -42.03%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-05 14:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -1.09%E -0.168%K -0.198%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -6.74%E -6.13%K -67.39%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-05 11:09 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -1.09%E -0.168%K -0.198%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -6.74%E -6.13%K -67.39%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-05 11:09 |
| Caesars🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -1.09%E -0.168%K -0.198%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -6.74%E -6.13%K -67.39%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-04 12:09 |
| ReBet🎯 | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.89%EV -2.61%E -0.408%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.11%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -42.03%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-05 14:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.89%EV -2.61%E -0.408%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.11%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -42.03%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-05 14:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.89%EV -2.61%E -0.408%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.11%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -42.03%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-05 14:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 6.26I 15.97%NM 15.52%EV -4.74%E -0.757%K -0.901%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 84.48%EV -2.50%E -2.17%K -16.66%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-05 14:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -4.89%E -0.783%K -0.932%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -42.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 06:59 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -4.89%E -0.783%K -0.932%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -42.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 06:59 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -4.89%E -0.783%K -0.932%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -42.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 06:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -4.89%E -0.783%K -0.932%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -42.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 06:59 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -4.89%E -0.783%K -0.932%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -42.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 06:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -4.89%E -0.783%K -0.932%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -42.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 07:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -4.89%E -0.783%K -0.932%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -42.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 07:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -4.89%E -0.783%K -0.932%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -42.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 07:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -4.89%E -0.783%K -0.932%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -42.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 06:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -4.89%E -0.783%K -0.932%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -42.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 06:59 |
| betPARX🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -4.89%E -0.783%K -0.932%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -42.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 06:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -4.89%E -0.783%K -0.932%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -42.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 06:59 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -4.89%E -0.783%K -0.932%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -42.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 07:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -4.89%E -0.783%K -0.932%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -42.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 07:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -4.89%E -0.783%K -0.932%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -42.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 07:44 |
| Bovada🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -4.89%E -0.783%K -0.932%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -42.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 6.24I 16.03%NM 15.33%EV -5.05%E -0.809%K -0.963%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.67%EV -4.20%E -3.71%K -32.27%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-05 13:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.53%EV -5.65%E -0.912%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.47%EV -3.35%E -2.94%K -23.91%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-05 14:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.53%EV -5.65%E -0.912%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.47%EV -3.35%E -2.94%K -23.91%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-05 14:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.07%EV -5.65%E -0.912%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.93%EV -6.74%E -6.13%K -67.39%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-05 14:35 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.07%EV -5.65%E -0.912%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.93%EV -6.74%E -6.13%K -67.39%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-05 14:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.51%EV -7.18%E -1.18%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.49%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -42.03%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-05 14:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.51%EV -7.18%E -1.18%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.49%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -42.03%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-05 14:04 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 6.05I 16.53%NM 15.62%EV -7.94%E -1.31%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.38%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -42.03%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 14:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -8.70%E -1.45%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -42.03%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-05 14:15 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -8.70%E -1.45%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -42.03%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-05 10:48 |
| Betway🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -8.70%E -1.45%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -42.03%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-05 14:15 |
| BetUS🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -8.70%E -1.45%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -42.03%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-05 14:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -8.70%E -1.45%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -5.89%E -5.31%K -53.55%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-05 14:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -8.70%E -1.45%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -5.89%E -5.31%K -53.55%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-05 11:09 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -8.70%E -1.45%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -6.74%E -6.13%K -67.39%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-05 10:45 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -12.50%E -2.17%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -3.35%E -2.94%K -23.91%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-05 14:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -12.50%E -2.17%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -4.20%E -3.71%K -32.27%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 14:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -12.50%E -2.17%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -4.20%E -3.71%K -32.27%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -12.50%E -2.17%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.70%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -42.03%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -12.50%E -2.17%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.70%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -42.03%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -16.31%E -2.96%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -3.35%E -2.94%K -23.91%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 14:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -16.31%E -2.96%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -3.35%E -2.94%K -23.91%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 14:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -16.31%E -2.96%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -3.35%E -2.94%K -23.91%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 13:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -16.31%E -2.96%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -3.35%E -2.94%K -23.91%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 13:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -16.31%E -2.96%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -3.35%E -2.94%K -23.91%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 13:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -16.31%E -2.96%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -3.35%E -2.94%K -23.91%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 13:20 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -16.31%E -2.96%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -42.03%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-05 13:18 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -16.31%E -2.96%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -42.03%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-05 13:19 |
| Neds🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -20.87%E -4.01%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -2.50%E -2.17%K -16.66%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -20.87%E -4.01%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -2.50%E -2.17%K -16.66%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-05 14:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 7.60I 13.16%NM 13.04% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 86.96% | 0.9% | 2026-08-05 14:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 7.60I 13.16%NM 13.04% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 86.96% | 0.9% | 2026-08-05 14:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 7.60I 13.16%NM 13.04% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 86.96% | 0.9% | 2026-08-05 14:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 7.60I 13.16%NM 13.04% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 86.96% | 0.9% | 2026-08-05 14:35 |
| ProphetX◎ | 7.30I 13.70%NM 13.51% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 86.49% | 1.4% | 2026-08-05 14:45 |
| Novig◎ | 6.90I 14.49%NM 14.18% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 85.82% | 2.2% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.15% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 86.85% | 2.8% | 2026-08-05 14:45 |