Language:English
Nicolas Mejia v Lorenzo Musetti
Head to Head
Nicolas Mejia (Local)
Prediction 13.46%7.43fair odd
EV +7.70%
Edge +0.962%
Kelly +1.10%
Growth +0.085%
assuming max odds 8.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.89%13.58%13.43%15.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.806.736.508.0017.24%14.85%15.38%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Lorenzo Musetti (Visit)
Prediction 86.54%1.16fair odd
EV -3.08%
Edge -2.75%
Kelly -25.65%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.12
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
84.06%86.42%86.57%88.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.061.101.101.1294.34%90.66%90.91%89.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Nicolas Mejia (Local): 13.46%; Lorenzo Musetti (Visit): 86.54%. For Nicolas Mejia (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.43. 8 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 8.00, producing a positive expected value of +7.70%.
Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.09%EV +7.70%E +0.962%K +1.10%G +0.085% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 87.91%EV -4.81%E -4.37%K -48.08%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-04 14:04 |
| SportsBet | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +7.70%E +0.962%K +1.10%G +0.085% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -6.54%E -6.05%K -81.74%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 15:40 |
| FanDuel | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.16%EV +5.01%E +0.642%K +0.736%G +0.037% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.84%EV -6.54%E -6.05%K -81.74%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 15:44 |
| Winamax (DE) | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.89%EV +0.966%E +0.129%K +0.149%G +0.001% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 87.11%EV -3.94%E -3.55%K -35.85%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-04 20:44 |
| LowVig.ag | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.79%EV +0.966%E +0.129%K +0.149%G +0.001% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 87.21%EV -4.81%E -4.37%K -48.08%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-04 15:40 |
| BetOnline.ag | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.79%EV +0.966%E +0.129%K +0.149%G +0.001% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 87.21%EV -4.81%E -4.37%K -48.08%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-04 15:45 |
| Paddy Power | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV +0.966%E +0.129%K +0.149%G +0.001% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -6.54%E -6.05%K -81.74%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-04 15:40 |
| Sky Bet | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV +0.966%E +0.129%K +0.149%G +0.001% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -6.54%E -6.05%K -81.74%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-04 15:40 |
| Pinnacle | 7.36I 13.59%NM 13.11%EV -0.918%E -0.125%K -0.144%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.89%EV -3.94%E -3.55%K -35.85%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-04 20:20 |
| DraftKings | 7.30I 13.70%NM 13.10%EV -1.73%E -0.236%K -0.274%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.90%EV -4.81%E -4.37%K -48.08%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-04 13:35 |
| Coolbet | 7.25I 13.79%NM 13.38%EV -2.40%E -0.331%K -0.384%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 86.62%EV -3.08%E -2.75%K -25.65%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-08-04 20:24 |
| Winamax (FR) | 7.25I 13.79%NM 13.17%EV -2.40%E -0.331%K -0.384%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.83%EV -4.81%E -4.37%K -48.08%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-04 20:45 |
| Bovada | 7.25I 13.79%NM 13.17%EV -2.40%E -0.331%K -0.384%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.83%EV -4.81%E -4.37%K -48.08%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-04 14:58 |
| Fanatics | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.36%EV -3.07%E -0.427%K -0.496%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.64%EV -3.94%E -3.55%K -35.85%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-04 16:30 |
| Betsson | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.25%EV -3.07%E -0.427%K -0.496%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.75%EV -4.81%E -4.37%K -48.08%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-04 18:45 |
| NordicBet | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.25%EV -3.07%E -0.427%K -0.496%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.75%EV -4.81%E -4.37%K -48.08%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-04 18:45 |
| Tipico (DE) | 7.20I 13.89%NM 12.83%EV -3.07%E -0.427%K -0.496%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 87.17%EV -8.27%E -7.80%K -137.83%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-04 15:45 |
| 1xBet | 7.19I 13.91%NM 13.37%EV -3.21%E -0.446%K -0.518%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.63%EV -3.94%E -3.55%K -35.85%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-04 18:40 |
| Betway | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -5.76%E -0.824%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -4.81%E -4.37%K -48.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 11:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -5.76%E -0.824%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -4.81%E -4.37%K -48.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 22:20 |
| Unibet (UK) | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -5.76%E -0.824%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -5.67%E -5.21%K -63.04%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-04 21:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -5.76%E -0.824%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -5.67%E -5.21%K -63.04%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-04 14:00 |
| Coral | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -5.76%E -0.824%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -5.67%E -5.21%K -63.04%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-04 14:00 |
| BetMGM | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -5.76%E -0.824%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -5.67%E -5.21%K -63.04%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-04 14:00 |
| NetBet (FR) | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -5.76%E -0.824%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -6.54%E -6.05%K -81.74%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-04 21:04 |
| Marathon Bet | 6.95I 14.39%NM 13.66%EV -6.44%E -0.926%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.34%EV -4.81%E -4.37%K -48.08%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 18:35 |
| Betclic (FR) | 6.80I 14.71%NM 13.81%EV -8.46%E -1.24%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.19%EV -5.67%E -5.21%K -63.04%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-04 16:58 |
| theScore Bet | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.90%EV -9.13%E -1.35%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.10%EV -5.67%E -5.21%K -63.04%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-04 15:40 |
| GTbets | 6.71I 14.90%NM 14.19%EV -9.67%E -1.44%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.81%EV -3.94%E -3.55%K -35.85%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-04 10:14 |
| Dabble (AU) | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -12.50%E -1.92%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -3.94%E -3.55%K -35.85%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-04 21:15 |
| 888sport | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -12.50%E -1.92%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -3.94%E -3.55%K -35.85%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-04 20:15 |
| 888sport (SE) | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -12.50%E -1.92%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -3.94%E -3.55%K -35.85%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-04 20:15 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -12.50%E -1.92%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -3.94%E -3.55%K -35.85%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-04 20:15 |
| William Hill | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -12.50%E -1.92%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -3.94%E -3.55%K -35.85%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-04 20:14 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -12.50%E -1.92%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -4.81%E -4.37%K -48.08%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-04 10:14 |
| Betr (AU) | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -12.50%E -1.92%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -4.81%E -4.37%K -48.08%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-04 20:20 |
| betfred_uk | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -12.50%E -1.92%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -4.81%E -4.37%K -48.08%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-04 08:25 |
| Caesars | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -12.50%E -1.92%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -4.81%E -4.37%K -48.08%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-04 12:09 |
| TAB | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -12.50%E -1.92%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.64%EV -5.67%E -5.21%K -63.04%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-04 22:34 |
| Neds | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.67%EV -13.84%E -2.16%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.33%EV -4.81%E -4.37%K -48.08%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-04 13:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.67%EV -13.84%E -2.16%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.33%EV -4.81%E -4.37%K -48.08%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-04 14:00 |
| Unibet (FR) | 6.30I 15.87%NM 14.75%EV -15.19%E -2.41%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.25%EV -5.67%E -5.21%K -63.04%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-04 21:04 |
| Unibet (NL) | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -15.86%E -2.54%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -3.08%E -2.75%K -25.65%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 06:59 |
| Unibet (SE) | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -15.86%E -2.54%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -3.08%E -2.75%K -25.65%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 06:59 |
| BetRivers | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -15.86%E -2.54%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -3.08%E -2.75%K -25.65%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 06:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -15.86%E -2.54%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -3.08%E -2.75%K -25.65%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 06:59 |
| LiveScore Bet | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -15.86%E -2.54%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -3.08%E -2.75%K -25.65%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 06:59 |
| Grosvenor | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -15.86%E -2.54%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -3.08%E -2.75%K -25.65%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 07:00 |
| Virgin Bet | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -15.86%E -2.54%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -3.08%E -2.75%K -25.65%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 07:00 |
| Casumo | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -15.86%E -2.54%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -3.08%E -2.75%K -25.65%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 07:00 |
| TABtouch | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -15.86%E -2.54%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -3.08%E -2.75%K -25.65%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 06:59 |
| Unibet | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -15.86%E -2.54%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -3.08%E -2.75%K -25.65%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 06:59 |
| betPARX | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -15.86%E -2.54%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -3.08%E -2.75%K -25.65%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 06:59 |
| ATG (SE) | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -15.86%E -2.54%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -3.08%E -2.75%K -25.65%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 06:59 |
| Bally Bet | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -15.86%E -2.54%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -3.08%E -2.75%K -25.65%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 07:00 |
| Svenska Spel | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -15.86%E -2.54%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -3.08%E -2.75%K -25.65%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 07:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -15.86%E -2.54%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -3.08%E -2.75%K -25.65%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 07:44 |
| PlayUp | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -15.86%E -2.54%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -3.94%E -3.55%K -35.85%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-04 21:19 |
| LeoVegas | 6.20I 16.13%NM 14.95%EV -16.53%E -2.67%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.05%EV -5.67%E -5.21%K -63.04%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-04 22:20 |
| ReBet | 6.20I 16.13%NM 14.95%EV -16.53%E -2.67%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.05%EV -5.67%E -5.21%K -63.04%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-04 15:05 |
| betano_uk | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -19.23%E -3.20%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -4.81%E -4.37%K -48.08%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-04 10:13 |
| Bet Victor | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -19.23%E -3.20%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -4.81%E -4.37%K -48.08%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-04 10:14 |
| PMU (FR) | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.94%EV -21.92%E -3.78%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.06%EV -4.81%E -4.37%K -48.08%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-04 06:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.45% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 86.55% | 0.5% | 2026-08-04 22:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.45% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 86.55% | 0.5% | 2026-08-04 22:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.45% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 86.55% | 0.5% | 2026-08-04 22:15 |
| Matchbook | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.45% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 86.55% | 0.5% | 2026-08-04 22:20 |
| Smarkets | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.57% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 86.43% | 2.4% | 2026-08-04 22:25 |
| Novig | 7.14I 14.01%NM 13.66% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 86.34% | 2.5% | 2026-08-04 23:00 |