Idioma:Español
Nicolas Mejia v Lorenzo Musetti
Resultado del partido
Nicolas Mejia (Local)
Predicción 13.46%7.43momio equitativo
EV +7.70%
Ventaja +0.962%
Kelly +1.10%
Crecimiento +0.085%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 8.00
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
11.89%13.58%13.43%15.94%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.806.736.508.0017.24%14.85%15.38%12.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Lorenzo Musetti (Visitante)
Predicción 86.54%1.16momio equitativo
EV -3.08%
Ventaja -2.75%
Kelly -25.65%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.12
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
84.06%86.42%86.57%88.11%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.061.101.101.1294.34%90.66%90.91%89.29%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Nicolas Mejia (Local): 13.46%; Lorenzo Musetti (Visitante): 86.54%. Para Nicolas Mejia (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 7.43. 8 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 8.00, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +7.70%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (63 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.09%EV +7.70%E +0.962%K +1.10%G +0.085% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 87.91%EV -4.81%E -4.37%K -48.08%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-04 14:04 |
| SportsBet | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +7.70%E +0.962%K +1.10%G +0.085% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -6.54%E -6.05%K -81.74%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-04 15:40 |
| FanDuel | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.16%EV +5.01%E +0.642%K +0.736%G +0.037% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.84%EV -6.54%E -6.05%K -81.74%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 15:44 |
| Winamax (DE) | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.89%EV +0.966%E +0.129%K +0.149%G +0.001% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 87.11%EV -3.94%E -3.55%K -35.85%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-04 20:44 |
| LowVig.ag | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.79%EV +0.966%E +0.129%K +0.149%G +0.001% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 87.21%EV -4.81%E -4.37%K -48.08%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-04 15:40 |
| BetOnline.ag | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.79%EV +0.966%E +0.129%K +0.149%G +0.001% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 87.21%EV -4.81%E -4.37%K -48.08%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-04 15:45 |
| Paddy Power | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV +0.966%E +0.129%K +0.149%G +0.001% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -6.54%E -6.05%K -81.74%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-04 15:40 |
| Sky Bet | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV +0.966%E +0.129%K +0.149%G +0.001% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -6.54%E -6.05%K -81.74%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-04 15:40 |
| Pinnacle | 7.36I 13.59%NM 13.11%EV -0.918%E -0.125%K -0.144%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.89%EV -3.94%E -3.55%K -35.85%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-04 20:20 |
| DraftKings | 7.30I 13.70%NM 13.10%EV -1.73%E -0.236%K -0.274%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.90%EV -4.81%E -4.37%K -48.08%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-04 13:35 |
| Coolbet | 7.25I 13.79%NM 13.38%EV -2.40%E -0.331%K -0.384%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 86.62%EV -3.08%E -2.75%K -25.65%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-08-04 20:24 |
| Winamax (FR) | 7.25I 13.79%NM 13.17%EV -2.40%E -0.331%K -0.384%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.83%EV -4.81%E -4.37%K -48.08%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-04 20:45 |
| Bovada | 7.25I 13.79%NM 13.17%EV -2.40%E -0.331%K -0.384%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.83%EV -4.81%E -4.37%K -48.08%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-04 14:58 |
| Fanatics | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.36%EV -3.07%E -0.427%K -0.496%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.64%EV -3.94%E -3.55%K -35.85%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-04 16:30 |
| Betsson | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.25%EV -3.07%E -0.427%K -0.496%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.75%EV -4.81%E -4.37%K -48.08%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-04 18:45 |
| NordicBet | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.25%EV -3.07%E -0.427%K -0.496%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.75%EV -4.81%E -4.37%K -48.08%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-04 18:45 |
| Tipico (DE) | 7.20I 13.89%NM 12.83%EV -3.07%E -0.427%K -0.496%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 87.17%EV -8.27%E -7.80%K -137.83%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-04 15:45 |
| 1xBet | 7.19I 13.91%NM 13.37%EV -3.21%E -0.446%K -0.518%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.63%EV -3.94%E -3.55%K -35.85%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-04 18:40 |
| Betway | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -5.76%E -0.824%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -4.81%E -4.37%K -48.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 11:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -5.76%E -0.824%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -4.81%E -4.37%K -48.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 22:20 |
| Unibet (UK) | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -5.76%E -0.824%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -5.67%E -5.21%K -63.04%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-04 21:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -5.76%E -0.824%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -5.67%E -5.21%K -63.04%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-04 14:00 |
| Coral | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -5.76%E -0.824%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -5.67%E -5.21%K -63.04%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-04 14:00 |
| BetMGM | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -5.76%E -0.824%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -5.67%E -5.21%K -63.04%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-04 14:00 |
| NetBet (FR) | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -5.76%E -0.824%K -0.961%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -6.54%E -6.05%K -81.74%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-04 21:04 |
| Marathon Bet | 6.95I 14.39%NM 13.66%EV -6.44%E -0.926%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.34%EV -4.81%E -4.37%K -48.08%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 18:35 |
| Betclic (FR) | 6.80I 14.71%NM 13.81%EV -8.46%E -1.24%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.19%EV -5.67%E -5.21%K -63.04%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-04 16:58 |
| theScore Bet | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.90%EV -9.13%E -1.35%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.10%EV -5.67%E -5.21%K -63.04%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-04 15:40 |
| GTbets | 6.71I 14.90%NM 14.19%EV -9.67%E -1.44%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.81%EV -3.94%E -3.55%K -35.85%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-04 10:14 |
| Dabble (AU) | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -12.50%E -1.92%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -3.94%E -3.55%K -35.85%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-04 21:15 |
| 888sport | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -12.50%E -1.92%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -3.94%E -3.55%K -35.85%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-04 20:15 |
| 888sport (SE) | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -12.50%E -1.92%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -3.94%E -3.55%K -35.85%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-04 20:15 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -12.50%E -1.92%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -3.94%E -3.55%K -35.85%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-04 20:15 |
| William Hill | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -12.50%E -1.92%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -3.94%E -3.55%K -35.85%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-04 20:14 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -12.50%E -1.92%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -4.81%E -4.37%K -48.08%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-04 10:14 |
| Betr (AU) | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -12.50%E -1.92%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -4.81%E -4.37%K -48.08%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-04 20:20 |
| betfred_uk | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -12.50%E -1.92%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -4.81%E -4.37%K -48.08%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-04 08:25 |
| Caesars | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -12.50%E -1.92%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -4.81%E -4.37%K -48.08%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-04 12:09 |
| TAB | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -12.50%E -1.92%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.64%EV -5.67%E -5.21%K -63.04%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-04 22:34 |
| Neds | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.67%EV -13.84%E -2.16%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.33%EV -4.81%E -4.37%K -48.08%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-04 13:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.67%EV -13.84%E -2.16%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.33%EV -4.81%E -4.37%K -48.08%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-04 14:00 |
| Unibet (FR) | 6.30I 15.87%NM 14.75%EV -15.19%E -2.41%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.25%EV -5.67%E -5.21%K -63.04%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-04 21:04 |
| Unibet (NL) | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -15.86%E -2.54%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -3.08%E -2.75%K -25.65%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 06:59 |
| Unibet (SE) | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -15.86%E -2.54%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -3.08%E -2.75%K -25.65%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 06:59 |
| BetRivers | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -15.86%E -2.54%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -3.08%E -2.75%K -25.65%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 06:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -15.86%E -2.54%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -3.08%E -2.75%K -25.65%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 06:59 |
| LiveScore Bet | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -15.86%E -2.54%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -3.08%E -2.75%K -25.65%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 06:59 |
| Grosvenor | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -15.86%E -2.54%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -3.08%E -2.75%K -25.65%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 07:00 |
| Virgin Bet | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -15.86%E -2.54%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -3.08%E -2.75%K -25.65%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 07:00 |
| Casumo | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -15.86%E -2.54%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -3.08%E -2.75%K -25.65%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 07:00 |
| TABtouch | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -15.86%E -2.54%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -3.08%E -2.75%K -25.65%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 06:59 |
| Unibet | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -15.86%E -2.54%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -3.08%E -2.75%K -25.65%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 06:59 |
| betPARX | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -15.86%E -2.54%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -3.08%E -2.75%K -25.65%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 06:59 |
| ATG (SE) | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -15.86%E -2.54%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -3.08%E -2.75%K -25.65%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 06:59 |
| Bally Bet | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -15.86%E -2.54%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -3.08%E -2.75%K -25.65%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 07:00 |
| Svenska Spel | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -15.86%E -2.54%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -3.08%E -2.75%K -25.65%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 07:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -15.86%E -2.54%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -3.08%E -2.75%K -25.65%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 07:44 |
| PlayUp | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -15.86%E -2.54%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -3.94%E -3.55%K -35.85%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-04 21:19 |
| LeoVegas | 6.20I 16.13%NM 14.95%EV -16.53%E -2.67%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.05%EV -5.67%E -5.21%K -63.04%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-04 22:20 |
| ReBet | 6.20I 16.13%NM 14.95%EV -16.53%E -2.67%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.05%EV -5.67%E -5.21%K -63.04%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-04 15:05 |
| betano_uk | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -19.23%E -3.20%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -4.81%E -4.37%K -48.08%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-04 10:13 |
| Bet Victor | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -19.23%E -3.20%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -4.81%E -4.37%K -48.08%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-04 10:14 |
| PMU (FR) | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.94%EV -21.92%E -3.78%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.06%EV -4.81%E -4.37%K -48.08%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-04 06:59 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (6)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.45% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 86.55% | 0.5% | 2026-08-04 22:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.45% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 86.55% | 0.5% | 2026-08-04 22:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.45% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 86.55% | 0.5% | 2026-08-04 22:15 |
| Matchbook | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.45% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 86.55% | 0.5% | 2026-08-04 22:20 |
| Smarkets | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.67% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 86.33% | 1.6% | 2026-08-04 23:10 |
| Novig | 7.14I 14.01%NM 13.66% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 86.34% | 2.5% | 2026-08-04 23:50 |