Language:English
James Duckworth v Alex de Minaur
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
James Duckworth (Local)
Prediction 14.04%7.12fair odd
EV +12.30%
Edge +1.54%
Kelly +1.76%
Growth +0.216%
assuming max odds 8.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.99%14.05%13.89%15.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.006.646.508.0016.67%15.06%15.38%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alex de Minaur (Visit)
Prediction 85.96%1.16fair odd
EV -2.86%
Edge -2.53%
Kelly -22.02%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.13
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
84.15%85.95%86.11%88.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.071.111.111.1393.46%90.36%90.09%88.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: James Duckworth (Local): 14.04%; Alex de Minaur (Visit): 85.96%. For James Duckworth (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.12. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.30%.
Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winamax (DE) | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.99%EV +12.30%E +1.54%K +1.76%G +0.216% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 88.01%EV -6.30%E -5.78%K -70.01%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-04 19:54 |
| Winamax (FR) | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.33%EV +8.79%E +1.13%K +1.30%G +0.114% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.67%EV -6.30%E -5.78%K -70.01%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-04 19:59 |
| LowVig.ag | 7.61I 13.14%NM 12.63%EV +6.83%E +0.897%K +1.03%G +0.070% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 87.37%EV -5.44%E -4.95%K -54.41%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-04 10:39 |
| BetOnline.ag | 7.61I 13.14%NM 12.63%EV +6.83%E +0.897%K +1.03%G +0.070% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 87.37%EV -5.44%E -4.95%K -54.41%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-04 10:40 |
| Pinnacle | 7.17I 13.95%NM 13.51%EV +0.649%E +0.091%K +0.105%G +0.001% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 86.49%EV -3.72%E -3.32%K -31.02%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-04 22:15 |
| Fanatics | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV -1.74%E -0.248%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -4.58%E -4.13%K -41.65%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-04 20:00 |
| Bovada | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV -1.74%E -0.248%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -4.58%E -4.13%K -41.65%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-04 19:59 |
| BoyleSports | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -1.74%E -0.248%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.44%E -4.95%K -54.41%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 10:34 |
| Betsson | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -1.74%E -0.248%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.44%E -4.95%K -54.41%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 19:55 |
| NordicBet | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -1.74%E -0.248%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.44%E -4.95%K -54.41%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 19:55 |
| Betclic (FR) | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -1.74%E -0.248%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.44%E -4.95%K -54.41%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 22:58 |
| ReBet | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -1.74%E -0.248%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.44%E -4.95%K -54.41%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 21:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -1.74%E -0.248%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.44%E -4.95%K -54.41%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 20:00 |
| Coral | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -1.74%E -0.248%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.44%E -4.95%K -54.41%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 20:05 |
| DraftKings | 6.97I 14.35%NM 13.74%EV -2.16%E -0.310%K -0.361%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.26%EV -4.58%E -4.13%K -41.65%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-04 23:05 |
| BetMGM | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV -5.25%E -0.777%K -0.912%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -5.44%E -4.95%K -54.41%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-04 20:00 |
| BetAnything | 6.70I 14.93%NM 14.21%EV -5.95%E -0.888%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.79%EV -4.58%E -4.13%K -41.65%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-04 19:55 |
| Tipico (DE) | 6.70I 14.93%NM 13.77%EV -5.95%E -0.888%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.23%EV -8.02%E -7.50%K -114.57%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-04 20:00 |
| FanDuel | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -8.76%E -1.35%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -3.72%E -3.32%K -31.02%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-04 22:15 |
| 888sport | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -8.76%E -1.35%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.58%E -4.13%K -41.65%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-04 22:14 |
| William Hill | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -8.76%E -1.35%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.58%E -4.13%K -41.65%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-04 22:15 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -8.76%E -1.35%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.58%E -4.13%K -41.65%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-04 22:15 |
| 888sport (SE) | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -8.76%E -1.35%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.58%E -4.13%K -41.65%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-04 22:15 |
| betfred_uk | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -8.76%E -1.35%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -5.44%E -4.95%K -54.41%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-04 19:45 |
| LeoVegas | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -8.76%E -1.35%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -5.44%E -4.95%K -54.41%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-04 23:00 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -8.76%E -1.35%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -5.44%E -4.95%K -54.41%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-04 05:29 |
| Betway | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -8.76%E -1.35%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -5.44%E -4.95%K -54.41%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-04 20:00 |
| Caesars | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -8.76%E -1.35%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -5.44%E -4.95%K -54.41%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-04 12:25 |
| TAB | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -8.76%E -1.35%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.64%EV -6.30%E -5.78%K -70.01%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-04 22:59 |
| theScore Bet | 6.45I 15.50%NM 14.68%EV -9.46%E -1.47%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.32%EV -4.58%E -4.13%K -41.65%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 19:59 |
| SportsBet | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.89%EV -10.16%E -1.59%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.11%EV -3.72%E -3.32%K -31.02%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-04 22:15 |
| 1xBet | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -12.27%E -1.96%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -2.86%E -2.53%K -22.02%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-04 23:04 |
| Betr (AU) | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -12.27%E -1.96%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -4.58%E -4.13%K -41.65%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-04 22:14 |
| Neds | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.18%EV -12.97%E -2.09%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.82%EV -4.58%E -4.13%K -41.65%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-04 20:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.18%EV -12.97%E -2.09%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.82%EV -4.58%E -4.13%K -41.65%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-04 20:00 |
| Marathon Bet | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.51%EV -14.37%E -2.36%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.49%EV -3.72%E -3.32%K -31.02%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-04 23:05 |
| Sky Bet | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -15.77%E -2.63%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -2.86%E -2.53%K -22.02%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 22:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -15.77%E -2.63%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -2.86%E -2.53%K -22.02%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 22:15 |
| Paddy Power | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -15.77%E -2.63%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -3.72%E -3.32%K -31.02%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-04 22:15 |
| Dabble (AU) | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -15.77%E -2.63%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -3.72%E -3.32%K -31.02%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-04 23:00 |
| PlayUp | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -15.77%E -2.63%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -3.72%E -3.32%K -31.02%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-04 23:00 |
| betano_uk | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -15.77%E -2.63%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -5.44%E -4.95%K -54.41%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-04 05:30 |
| Bet Victor | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -15.77%E -2.63%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -5.44%E -4.95%K -54.41%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-04 05:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.76% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 88.24% | 1.2% | 2026-08-04 23:05 |
| Matchbook | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.02% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 87.98% | 1.5% | 2026-08-04 23:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.02% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 87.98% | 1.5% | 2026-08-04 23:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.02% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 87.98% | 1.5% | 2026-08-04 23:00 |
| Novig | 7.69I 13.00%NM 12.81% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 87.19% | 1.5% | 2026-08-04 23:00 |
| ProphetX | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.28% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 87.72% | 1.8% | 2026-08-04 23:00 |
| Smarkets | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.18% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 87.82% | 2.6% | 2026-08-04 23:00 |