Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

James Duckworth v Alex de Minaur

Início: 2026-08-04 23:38 UTC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

65 casas de apostas (21 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

James Duckworth (Local)

Previsão 13.64%7.33odd justa
EV +11.82%
Vantagem +1.44%
Kelly +1.64%
Crescimento +0.194%

pressupondo odds máximas de 8.20

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
11.64%13.73%13.58%16.92%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
5.506.957.008.2018.18%14.38%14.29%12.20%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Alex de Minaur (Visitante)

Previsão 86.36%1.16odd justa
EV -3.27%
Vantagem -2.92%
Kelly -27.28%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.12

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
83.08%86.27%86.42%88.36%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.061.101.101.1294.34%91.02%90.91%89.29%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: James Duckworth (Local): 13.64%; Alex de Minaur (Visitante): 86.36%. Para James Duckworth (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 7.33. 9 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 8.20, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +11.82%.

Odds das casas de apostas (65 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
FanDuel8.20I 12.20%NM 11.64%EV +11.82%E +1.44%K +1.64%G +0.194%1.08I 92.59%NM 88.36%EV -6.73%E -6.23%K -84.10%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-04 23:20
Winamax (DE)8.00I 12.50%NM 12.09%EV +9.10%E +1.14%K +1.30%G +0.118%1.10I 90.91%NM 87.91%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.01%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-04 23:20
SportsBet8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +9.10%E +1.14%K +1.30%G +0.118%1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -6.73%E -6.23%K -84.10%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-04 23:19
Paddy Power8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +9.10%E +1.14%K +1.30%G +0.118%1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -6.73%E -6.23%K -84.10%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-04 23:20
Sky Bet8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +9.10%E +1.14%K +1.30%G +0.118%1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -6.73%E -6.23%K -84.10%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-04 23:20
LowVig.ag7.61I 13.14%NM 12.63%EV +3.78%E +0.496%K +0.571%G +0.022%1.10I 90.91%NM 87.37%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.01%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-04 10:39
BetOnline.ag7.61I 13.14%NM 12.63%EV +3.78%E +0.496%K +0.571%G +0.022%1.10I 90.91%NM 87.37%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.01%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-04 10:40
Betway7.50I 13.33%NM 12.79%EV +2.28%E +0.304%K +0.350%G +0.008%1.10I 90.91%NM 87.21%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.01%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-04 23:19
Winamax (FR)7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +2.28%E +0.304%K +0.350%G +0.008%1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -5.86%E -5.38%K -65.16%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-04 23:20
Fanatics7.30I 13.70%NM 12.99%EV -0.451%E -0.062%K -0.072%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 87.01%EV -5.86%E -5.38%K -65.16%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 23:20
Coolbet7.25I 13.79%NM 13.38%EV -1.13%E -0.156%K -0.181%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 86.62%EV -3.27%E -2.92%K -27.28%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-04 19:54
Pinnacle7.17I 13.95%NM 13.51%EV -2.22%E -0.310%K -0.360%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 86.49%EV -3.27%E -2.92%K -27.28%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-04 22:15
1xBet7.03I 14.22%NM 13.53%EV -4.13%E -0.588%K -0.685%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.47%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.01%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-04 23:09
Bovada7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV -4.54%E -0.649%K -0.757%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -4.14%E -3.73%K -37.61%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-04 19:59
BoyleSports7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -4.54%E -0.649%K -0.757%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.01%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 10:34
Betclic (FR)7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -4.54%E -0.649%K -0.757%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.01%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 22:58
ReBet7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -4.54%E -0.649%K -0.757%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.01%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 21:05
Grosvenor7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -4.54%E -0.649%K -0.757%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.01%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 06:54
Casumo7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -4.54%E -0.649%K -0.757%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.01%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 06:54
Unibet7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -4.54%E -0.649%K -0.757%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.01%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 06:54
Virgin Bet7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -4.54%E -0.649%K -0.757%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.01%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 06:54
TABtouch7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -4.54%E -0.649%K -0.757%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.01%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 06:55
Unibet (NL)7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -4.54%E -0.649%K -0.757%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.01%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 06:55
LiveScore Bet7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -4.54%E -0.649%K -0.757%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.01%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 06:55
BetRivers7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -4.54%E -0.649%K -0.757%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.01%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 06:55
Unibet (SE)7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -4.54%E -0.649%K -0.757%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.01%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 06:55
LeoVegas (SE)7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -4.54%E -0.649%K -0.757%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.01%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 06:54
Bally Bet7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -4.54%E -0.649%K -0.757%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.01%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 06:54
Svenska Spel7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -4.54%E -0.649%K -0.757%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.01%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 06:54
ATG (SE)7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -4.54%E -0.649%K -0.757%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.01%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 06:55
betPARX7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -4.54%E -0.649%K -0.757%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.01%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 06:55
Ladbrokes (UK)7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -4.54%E -0.649%K -0.757%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.01%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 20:00
Coral7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -4.54%E -0.649%K -0.757%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.01%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 20:05
Hard Rock Bet7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -4.54%E -0.649%K -0.757%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.01%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 07:44
Dabble (AU)7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -4.54%E -0.649%K -0.757%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.01%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 23:20
BetUS7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -4.54%E -0.649%K -0.757%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.01%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 13:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -4.54%E -0.649%K -0.757%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.01%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 23:19
Betsson7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -4.54%E -0.649%K -0.757%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -5.86%E -5.38%K -65.16%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-04 23:20
LeoVegas7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -4.54%E -0.649%K -0.757%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -5.86%E -5.38%K -65.16%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-04 23:20
NordicBet7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -4.54%E -0.649%K -0.757%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -5.86%E -5.38%K -65.16%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-04 23:20
NetBet (FR)7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -4.54%E -0.649%K -0.757%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -6.73%E -6.23%K -84.10%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-04 22:01
TAB7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -4.54%E -0.649%K -0.757%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -6.73%E -6.23%K -84.10%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-04 23:20
DraftKings6.97I 14.35%NM 13.74%EV -4.95%E -0.710%K -0.829%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 86.26%EV -4.14%E -3.73%K -37.61%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-04 23:05
GTbets6.97I 14.35%NM 13.63%EV -4.95%E -0.710%K -0.829%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.37%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 05:30
Unibet (FR)6.90I 14.49%NM 13.75%EV -5.91%E -0.856%K -1.00%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.25%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.01%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 19:59
Fliff6.90I 14.49%NM 13.32%EV -5.91%E -0.856%K -1.00%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 86.68%EV -8.46%E -7.98%K -140.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-04 23:17
theScore Bet6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV -7.95%E -1.18%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.01%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-04 23:19
BetMGM6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV -7.95%E -1.18%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.01%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-04 20:00
BetAnything6.70I 14.93%NM 14.21%EV -8.63%E -1.29%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.79%EV -4.14%E -3.73%K -37.61%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-04 19:55
Tipico (DE)6.70I 14.93%NM 13.77%EV -8.63%E -1.29%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 86.23%EV -7.59%E -7.09%K -108.45%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-04 20:00
888sport6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -11.36%E -1.75%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.14%E -3.73%K -37.61%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-04 22:14
William Hill6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -11.36%E -1.75%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.14%E -3.73%K -37.61%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-04 22:15
Mr Green (SE)6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -11.36%E -1.75%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.14%E -3.73%K -37.61%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-04 22:15
888sport (SE)6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -11.36%E -1.75%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.14%E -3.73%K -37.61%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-04 22:15
betfred_uk6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -11.36%E -1.75%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-04 19:45
PointsBet (AU)6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -11.36%E -1.75%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-04 05:29
Betr (AU)6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -11.36%E -1.75%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-04 23:20
PlayUp6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -11.36%E -1.75%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-04 23:19
Caesars6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -11.36%E -1.75%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-04 12:25
PMU (FR)6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -11.36%E -1.75%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -6.73%E -6.23%K -84.10%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-04 06:55
Marathon Bet6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -14.77%E -2.36%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -3.27%E -2.92%K -27.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 23:14
Neds6.20I 16.13%NM 15.18%EV -15.45%E -2.49%K -2.97%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 84.82%EV -4.14%E -3.73%K -37.61%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-04 20:00
Ladbrokes (AU)6.20I 16.13%NM 15.18%EV -15.45%E -2.49%K -2.97%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 84.82%EV -4.14%E -3.73%K -37.61%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-04 20:00
betano_uk6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -18.18%E -3.03%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.01%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-04 05:30
Bet Victor5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -25.00%E -4.54%K -5.55%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -3.27%E -2.92%K -27.28%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-04 23:09
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (7)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)8.40I 11.90%NM 11.76%1.12I 89.29%NM 88.24%1.2%2026-08-04 23:05
Matchbook8.40I 11.90%NM 11.76%1.12I 89.29%NM 88.24%1.2%2026-08-04 23:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)8.40I 11.90%NM 11.76%1.12I 89.29%NM 88.24%1.2%2026-08-04 23:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)8.40I 11.90%NM 11.76%1.12I 89.29%NM 88.24%1.2%2026-08-04 23:20
ProphetX8.00I 12.50%NM 12.28%1.12I 89.29%NM 87.72%1.8%2026-08-04 23:00
Smarkets8.20I 12.20%NM 11.92%1.11I 90.09%NM 88.08%2.3%2026-08-04 23:20
Novig7.69I 13.00%NM 12.61%1.11I 90.09%NM 87.39%3.1%2026-08-04 23:20