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Frances Tiafoe v Marin Cilic
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Frances Tiafoe (Local)
Prediction 65.82%1.52fair odd
EV -3.24%
Edge -2.20%
Kelly -6.90%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.47
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.53%65.85%65.77%67.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.441.441.4771.43%69.57%69.44%68.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Marin Cilic (Visit)
Prediction 34.18%2.93fair odd
EV +0.824%
Edge +0.279%
Kelly +0.423%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 2.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.26%34.15%34.23%35.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.782.802.9538.17%35.99%35.71%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Frances Tiafoe (Local): 65.82%; Marin Cilic (Visit): 34.18%. For Marin Cilic (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.93. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.824%.
Sportsbook Odds (65 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -7.19%E -5.10%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV +0.824%E +0.279%K +0.423%G +0.003% | 4.8% | 2026-08-04 22:19 |
| SportsBet | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.74%EV -7.85%E -5.61%K -19.62%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.26%EV +0.482%E +0.164%K +0.249%G +0.001% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 22:18 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.13%EV -5.87%E -4.11%K -13.66%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.87%EV -0.201%E -0.069%K -0.105%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-04 22:49 |
| Coolbet | 1.46I 68.49%NM 66.51%EV -3.90%E -2.67%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.49%EV -0.885%E -0.305%K -0.466%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-04 22:05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.47I 68.03%NM 66.28%EV -3.24%E -2.20%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 2.89I 34.60%NM 33.72%EV -1.23%E -0.424%K -0.649%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-08-04 22:25 |
| Paddy Power | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -7.85%E -5.61%K -19.62%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -1.57%E -0.545%K -0.834%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-04 22:05 |
| Sky Bet | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -7.85%E -5.61%K -19.62%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -1.57%E -0.545%K -0.834%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-04 22:05 |
| DraftKings | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.67%EV -5.87%E -4.11%K -13.66%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.33%EV -2.25%E -0.787%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-04 22:54 |
| BetMGM | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.87%E -4.11%K -13.66%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -2.59%E -0.910%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-04 21:45 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.81%EV -3.24%E -2.20%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 2.83I 35.34%NM 34.19%EV -3.28%E -1.16%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-04 22:05 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.81%EV -3.24%E -2.20%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 2.83I 35.34%NM 34.19%EV -3.28%E -1.16%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-04 22:05 |
| 1xBet | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.81%EV -3.90%E -2.67%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 2.81I 35.59%NM 34.19%EV -3.96%E -1.41%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-04 22:10 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -3.24%E -2.20%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -4.30%E -1.54%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-04 21:39 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -3.90%E -2.67%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -4.30%E -1.54%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-04 21:40 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -3.90%E -2.67%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -4.30%E -1.54%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-04 21:40 |
| Bovada | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.56%E -3.14%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.30%E -1.54%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-04 21:45 |
| BetUS | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.56%E -3.14%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.30%E -1.54%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-04 21:40 |
| betPARX | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.87%E -4.11%K -13.66%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.30%E -1.54%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 20:49 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.87%E -4.11%K -13.66%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.30%E -1.54%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 20:49 |
| Grosvenor | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.87%E -4.11%K -13.66%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.30%E -1.54%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 20:50 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.87%E -4.11%K -13.66%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.30%E -1.54%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 20:49 |
| Casumo | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.87%E -4.11%K -13.66%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.30%E -1.54%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 20:50 |
| Unibet | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.87%E -4.11%K -13.66%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.30%E -1.54%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 20:50 |
| TABtouch | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.87%E -4.11%K -13.66%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.30%E -1.54%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 20:50 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.87%E -4.11%K -13.66%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.30%E -1.54%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 20:50 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.87%E -4.11%K -13.66%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.30%E -1.54%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 20:50 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.87%E -4.11%K -13.66%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.30%E -1.54%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 20:50 |
| BetRivers | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.87%E -4.11%K -13.66%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.30%E -1.54%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 20:50 |
| Bally Bet | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.87%E -4.11%K -13.66%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.30%E -1.54%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 20:50 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.87%E -4.11%K -13.66%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.30%E -1.54%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 20:50 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.87%E -4.11%K -13.66%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.30%E -1.54%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 20:49 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.87%E -4.11%K -13.66%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.30%E -1.54%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 20:50 |
| Coral | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -7.85%E -5.61%K -19.62%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -4.30%E -1.54%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-04 21:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -7.85%E -5.61%K -19.62%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -4.30%E -1.54%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-04 21:45 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.88%EV -5.22%E -3.62%K -11.85%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 34.12%EV -4.99%E -1.79%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 22:03 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.27%EV -7.19%E -5.10%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 33.73%EV -5.33%E -1.92%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-04 22:10 |
| GTbets | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.25%EV -3.24%E -2.20%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 34.75%EV -5.67%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-04 21:39 |
| BetAnything | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -3.24%E -2.20%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -6.01%E -2.19%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-04 22:05 |
| Betsson | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.56%E -3.14%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.01%E -2.19%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 21:40 |
| NordicBet | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.56%E -3.14%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.01%E -2.19%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 21:35 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.56%E -3.14%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.01%E -2.19%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 21:39 |
| ReBet | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.56%E -3.14%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.01%E -2.19%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 22:05 |
| Betway | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.22%E -3.62%K -11.85%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.01%E -2.19%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-04 21:40 |
| LeoVegas | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.22%E -3.62%K -11.85%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.01%E -2.19%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-04 21:40 |
| betfred_uk | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.22%E -3.62%K -11.85%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.01%E -2.19%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-04 20:49 |
| BoyleSports | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.22%E -3.62%K -11.85%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.01%E -2.19%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-04 21:40 |
| 888sport | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.22%E -3.62%K -11.85%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.01%E -2.19%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-04 21:35 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.22%E -3.62%K -11.85%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.01%E -2.19%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-04 21:35 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.22%E -3.62%K -11.85%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.01%E -2.19%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-04 21:35 |
| William Hill | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.22%E -3.62%K -11.85%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.01%E -2.19%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-04 21:34 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.22%E -3.62%K -11.85%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.01%E -2.19%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-04 22:55 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -5.87%E -4.11%K -13.66%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -6.01%E -2.19%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-04 22:05 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.11%EV -7.19%E -5.10%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -6.01%E -2.19%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-04 20:50 |
| Dabble (AU) | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -3.90%E -2.67%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -7.72%E -2.86%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-04 22:25 |
| theScore Bet | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.56%E -3.14%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.72%E -2.86%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-04 20:49 |
| PlayUp | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.56%E -3.14%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.72%E -2.86%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-04 22:24 |
| Fanatics | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.22%E -3.62%K -11.85%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -7.72%E -2.86%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-04 22:49 |
| Neds | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.22%E -3.62%K -11.85%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -7.72%E -2.86%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-04 21:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.22%E -3.62%K -11.85%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -7.72%E -2.86%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-04 21:45 |
| TAB | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -6.53%E -4.60%K -15.55%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -7.72%E -2.86%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-04 22:25 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.85%E -5.61%K -19.62%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -7.72%E -2.86%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-04 20:50 |
| Caesars | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -4.56%E -3.14%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -9.43%E -3.56%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-04 21:39 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -5.22%E -3.62%K -11.85%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -9.43%E -3.56%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-04 20:49 |
| Bet Victor | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.22%E -3.62%K -11.85%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -10.45%E -3.99%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-04 22:10 |
| betano_uk | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.22%E -3.62%K -11.85%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -10.45%E -3.99%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-04 22:04 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.67% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.33% | 0.7% | 2026-08-04 22:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.52% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.48% | 0.9% | 2026-08-04 22:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.52% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.48% | 0.9% | 2026-08-04 22:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.52% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.48% | 0.9% | 2026-08-04 22:55 |
| ProphetX | 1.48I 67.57%NM 66.96% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.04% | 0.9% | 2026-08-04 22:50 |
| Smarkets | 1.47I 68.03%NM 66.67% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.33% | 2.0% | 2026-08-04 22:55 |
| Novig | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.34% | 2.99I 33.44%NM 32.66% | 2.4% | 2026-08-04 22:40 |