Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Daniel Merida Aguilar v Learner Tien

2026-08-11 20:00 UTC — ATP Canadian Open

Resultado del partido

46 corredores (18 en el análisis )

34%

66%

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local)

Predicción 34.41%2.91momio equitativo

EV +1.85%

Ventaja +0.626%

Kelly +0.946%

Crecimiento +0.018%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.96

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

32.08%34.36%34.62%36.59%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Distribución de los momios

2.452.752.752.9640.82%36.42%36.36%33.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Learner Tien (Visitante)

Predicción 65.59%1.52momio equitativo

EV -1.61%

Ventaja -1.08%

Kelly -3.23%

Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

63.41%65.64%65.38%67.92%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Distribución de los momios

1.371.431.441.5072.99%69.74%69.44%66.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local): 34.41%; Learner Tien (Visitante): 65.59%. Para Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.91. 3 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.96, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +1.85%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (46 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

Corredor	Local ▼	Visitante	Margen	Actualizado
Pinnacle🎯	2.96I 33.78%NM 32.88%EV +1.85%E +0.626%K +0.946%G +0.018%	1.45I 68.97%NM 67.12%EV -4.89%E -3.38%K -10.88%G +0.000%	2.7%	2026-08-10 00:20
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.92I 34.25%NM 32.87%EV +0.477%E +0.163%K +0.249%G +0.001%	1.43I 69.93%NM 67.13%EV -6.21%E -4.34%K -14.43%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-08-10 01:25
LowVig.ag🎯	2.92I 34.25%NM 32.87%EV +0.477%E +0.163%K +0.249%G +0.001%	1.43I 69.93%NM 67.13%EV -6.21%E -4.34%K -14.43%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-08-10 01:25
Coolbet🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 33.49%EV -0.211%E -0.073%K -0.111%G +0.000%	1.46I 68.49%NM 66.51%EV -4.24%E -2.90%K -9.21%G +0.000%	3.0%	2026-08-10 02:30
FanDuel🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -0.211%E -0.073%K -0.111%G +0.000%	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -6.21%E -4.34%K -14.43%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-08-10 00:14
BetMGM🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -0.211%E -0.073%K -0.111%G +0.000%	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -6.21%E -4.34%K -14.43%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-08-10 02:39
SportsBet🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -0.211%E -0.073%K -0.111%G +0.000%	1.37I 72.99%NM 67.92%EV -10.14%E -7.40%K -27.41%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-08-10 00:15
1xBet🎯	2.89I 34.60%NM 33.26%EV -0.555%E -0.192%K -0.294%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.74%EV -5.55%E -3.85%K -12.61%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-08-10 00:15
Sky Bet🎯	2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -0.899%E -0.312%K -0.478%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -8.17%E -5.84%K -20.43%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-08-10 00:15
Paddy Power🎯	2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -0.899%E -0.312%K -0.478%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -8.17%E -5.84%K -20.43%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-08-10 00:15
Bovada🎯	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -1.93%E -0.678%K -1.04%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.55%E -3.85%K -12.61%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-08-10 02:04
BetUS🎯	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -1.93%E -0.678%K -1.04%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.55%E -3.85%K -12.61%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-08-10 02:25
DraftKings🎯	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -1.93%E -0.678%K -1.04%G +0.000%	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -6.21%E -4.34%K -14.43%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-08-10 00:20
Marathon Bet🎯	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -1.93%E -0.678%K -1.04%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -6.86%E -4.83%K -16.34%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-08-10 00:15
Coral🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -3.65%E -1.30%K -2.03%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -8.17%E -5.84%K -20.43%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-08-10 00:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -3.65%E -1.30%K -2.03%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -8.17%E -5.84%K -20.43%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-08-10 00:15
betfred_uk🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.37%E -1.95%K -3.07%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.55%E -3.85%K -12.61%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-08-10 00:03
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.37%E -1.95%K -3.07%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.55%E -3.85%K -12.61%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-08-10 00:05
888sport🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.37%E -1.95%K -3.07%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.55%E -3.85%K -12.61%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-08-10 00:05
William Hill🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.37%E -1.95%K -3.07%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.55%E -3.85%K -12.61%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-08-10 00:05
888sport (SE)🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.37%E -1.95%K -3.07%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.55%E -3.85%K -12.61%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-08-10 00:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.37%E -1.95%K -3.07%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.55%E -3.85%K -12.61%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-08-10 00:55
Betr (AU)🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -5.37%E -1.95%K -3.07%G +0.000%	1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -6.21%E -4.34%K -14.43%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-08-10 01:15
Fliff🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -5.37%E -1.95%K -3.07%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -6.86%E -4.83%K -16.34%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-08-10 02:05
NetBet (FR)🎯	2.72I 36.76%NM 34.46%EV -6.40%E -2.35%K -3.72%G +0.000%	1.43I 69.93%NM 65.54%EV -6.21%E -4.34%K -14.43%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-08-10 01:35
Betsson🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -7.09%E -2.63%K -4.17%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -3.58%E -2.44%K -7.62%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-10 00:05
NordicBet🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -7.09%E -2.63%K -4.17%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -3.58%E -2.44%K -7.62%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-10 00:05
Winamax (DE)🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -7.09%E -2.63%K -4.17%G +0.000%	1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -4.24%E -2.90%K -9.21%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-08-10 00:05
theScore Bet🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.09%E -2.63%K -4.17%G +0.000%	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.89%E -3.38%K -10.88%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-08-10 00:05
Tipico (DE)🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.09%E -2.63%K -4.17%G +0.000%	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.89%E -3.38%K -10.88%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-08-10 02:24
Dabble (AU)🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.09%E -2.63%K -4.17%G +0.000%	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.89%E -3.38%K -10.88%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-08-10 01:10
PlayUp🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.09%E -2.63%K -4.17%G +0.000%	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.89%E -3.38%K -10.88%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-08-09 22:20
Fanatics🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -7.09%E -2.63%K -4.17%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.55%E -3.85%K -12.61%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-08-10 00:05
Neds🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -7.09%E -2.63%K -4.17%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.55%E -3.85%K -12.61%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-08-10 00:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -7.09%E -2.63%K -4.17%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.55%E -3.85%K -12.61%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-08-10 00:15
TAB🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -7.09%E -2.63%K -4.17%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -6.86%E -4.83%K -16.34%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-08-10 01:09
Unibet (UK)🎯	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -8.81%E -3.33%K -5.34%G +0.000%	1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -4.89%E -3.38%K -10.88%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-08-10 00:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -8.81%E -3.33%K -5.34%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -5.55%E -3.85%K -12.61%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-08-10 00:05
LeoVegas🎯	2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -8.81%E -3.33%K -5.34%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -6.86%E -4.83%K -16.34%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-08-10 00:05
Bet Victor🎯	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.85%E -3.76%K -6.08%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.55%E -3.85%K -12.61%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-08-10 00:14
betano_uk🎯	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.85%E -3.76%K -6.08%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.55%E -3.85%K -12.61%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-08-10 00:18
GTbets🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -10.53%E -4.05%K -6.58%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -1.61%E -1.08%K -3.23%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-09 20:44
Betclic (FR)🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 35.77%EV -12.25%E -4.81%K -7.91%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 64.23%EV -6.86%E -4.83%K -16.34%G +0.000%	9.6%	2026-08-10 00:08
ReBet🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 35.77%EV -12.25%E -4.81%K -7.91%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 64.23%EV -6.86%E -4.83%K -16.34%G +0.000%	9.6%	2026-08-10 00:05
Winamax (FR)🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -13.98%E -5.59%K -9.32%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 64.10%EV -8.17%E -5.84%K -20.43%G +0.000%	11.4%	2026-08-10 00:05
Unibet (FR)🎯	2.45I 40.82%NM 36.36%EV -15.70%E -6.41%K -10.82%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 63.64%EV -8.17%E -5.84%K -20.43%G +0.000%	12.2%	2026-08-10 00:04

Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

Corredor	Local	Visitante	Margen ▲	Actualizado
ProphetX◎	3.00I 33.33%NM 32.58%	1.45I 68.97%NM 67.42%	2.3%	2026-08-10 02:30
Novig◎	2.90I 34.48%NM 33.33%	1.45I 68.97%NM 66.67%	3.4%	2026-08-10 03:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	2.88I 34.72%NM 32.87%	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.13%	5.6%	2026-08-10 01:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	2.88I 34.72%NM 32.87%	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.13%	5.6%	2026-08-10 01:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	2.88I 34.72%NM 32.87%	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.13%	5.6%	2026-08-10 01:55
Smarkets◎	2.64I 37.88%NM 34.65%	1.40I 71.43%NM 65.35%	9.3%	2026-08-10 01:35