Idioma:Español
Daniel Merida Aguilar v Learner Tien
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local)
Predicción 35.88%2.79momio equitativo
EV -1.33%
Ventaja -0.482%
Kelly -0.758%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.75
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.99%35.91%35.84%37.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.502.632.602.7540.00%38.02%38.46%36.36%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Learner Tien (Visitante)
Predicción 64.12%1.56momio equitativo
EV -2.54%
Ventaja -1.67%
Kelly -4.88%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.52
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
62.50%64.09%64.16%65.01%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.431.491.501.5269.93%67.31%66.89%65.79%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local): 35.88%; Learner Tien (Visitante): 64.12%. Para Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.79. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 2.75, con un valor esperado de -1.33%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (66 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -1.33%E -0.482%K -0.758%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -5.10%E -3.45%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-11 22:44 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.74I 36.50%NM 35.38%EV -1.68%E -0.615%K -0.968%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.62%EV -3.82%E -2.55%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-10 06:06 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.74I 36.50%NM 35.38%EV -1.68%E -0.615%K -0.968%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.62%EV -3.82%E -2.55%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-11 23:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.74I 36.50%NM 35.38%EV -1.68%E -0.615%K -0.968%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.62%EV -3.82%E -2.55%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-11 23:29 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.73I 36.63%NM 35.76%EV -2.04%E -0.749%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 64.24%EV -2.54%E -1.67%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-08-11 23:35 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.02%EV -3.12%E -1.16%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.98%EV -2.54%E -1.67%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-08-11 23:34 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -3.12%E -1.16%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -3.82%E -2.55%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-11 22:39 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -3.12%E -1.16%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -4.46%E -3.00%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-11 22:49 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -3.12%E -1.16%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -4.46%E -3.00%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-11 23:29 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -3.12%E -1.16%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.10%E -3.45%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-11 22:40 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -3.12%E -1.16%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.10%E -3.45%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-11 21:09 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.68I 37.31%NM 35.73%EV -3.84%E -1.43%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.27%EV -4.46%E -3.00%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-11 20:54 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.67I 37.45%NM 35.97%EV -4.20%E -1.57%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.03%EV -3.82%E -2.55%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-11 21:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.67I 37.45%NM 35.82%EV -4.20%E -1.57%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.18%EV -4.46%E -3.00%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-11 23:34 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.66I 37.59%NM 35.75%EV -4.56%E -1.71%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.25%EV -5.10%E -3.45%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-11 20:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -4.91%E -1.85%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -3.82%E -2.55%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-11 18:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.99%EV -4.91%E -1.85%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.01%EV -4.46%E -3.00%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-11 22:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.91%E -1.85%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.10%E -3.45%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-11 22:39 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.91%E -1.85%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.10%E -3.45%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-11 17:14 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.91%E -1.85%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.10%E -3.45%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-11 22:40 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.91%E -1.85%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.10%E -3.45%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-11 22:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.91%E -1.85%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.10%E -3.45%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-11 22:39 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.91%E -1.85%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.10%E -3.45%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-11 22:29 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.91%E -1.85%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.10%E -3.45%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-11 15:24 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -4.91%E -1.85%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -7.03%E -4.85%K -15.62%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-10 04:03 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.64I 37.88%NM 35.92%EV -5.27%E -2.00%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.08%EV -5.10%E -3.45%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-11 21:19 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -5.63%E -2.14%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -3.82%E -2.55%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-11 20:54 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -5.63%E -2.14%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -3.82%E -2.55%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-11 17:15 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -5.99%E -2.29%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -3.82%E -2.55%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-11 15:18 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -5.99%E -2.29%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -3.82%E -2.55%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-11 22:39 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -5.99%E -2.29%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -7.67%E -5.33%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-11 17:14 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.31%EV -5.99%E -2.29%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.69%EV -8.31%E -5.81%K -19.33%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-11 22:44 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.71%E -2.58%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.82%E -2.55%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-11 20:44 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.71%E -2.58%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.82%E -2.55%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-11 20:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.71%E -2.58%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.82%E -2.55%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-11 20:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.71%E -2.58%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.82%E -2.55%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-11 20:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.71%E -2.58%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.82%E -2.55%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-11 21:09 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.71%E -2.58%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.82%E -2.55%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-11 21:09 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.71%E -2.58%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.82%E -2.55%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-11 21:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.71%E -2.58%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.82%E -2.55%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-11 21:09 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.71%E -2.58%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.82%E -2.55%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-11 21:09 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.71%E -2.58%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.82%E -2.55%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-11 21:09 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.71%E -2.58%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.82%E -2.55%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-11 21:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.71%E -2.58%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.82%E -2.55%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-11 21:09 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.71%E -2.58%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.82%E -2.55%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-11 21:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.71%E -2.58%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.82%E -2.55%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-11 21:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.71%E -2.58%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.82%E -2.55%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-11 21:09 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.71%E -2.58%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.82%E -2.55%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-11 21:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.71%E -2.58%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.82%E -2.55%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-11 21:09 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.71%E -2.58%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.82%E -2.55%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-11 21:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.71%E -2.58%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.82%E -2.55%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-11 21:09 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.71%E -2.58%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.10%E -3.45%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-11 23:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.71%E -2.58%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.10%E -3.45%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-11 21:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.71%E -2.58%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.10%E -3.45%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-11 22:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -6.71%E -2.58%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -5.75%E -3.91%K -12.23%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-11 23:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -6.71%E -2.58%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -5.75%E -3.91%K -12.23%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-11 20:54 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -6.71%E -2.58%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.04%EV -6.39%E -4.37%K -13.88%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-11 22:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.71%E -2.58%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -7.03%E -4.85%K -15.62%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-11 21:23 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.71%E -2.58%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -7.03%E -4.85%K -15.62%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-11 21:20 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.71%E -2.58%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -7.03%E -4.85%K -15.62%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-11 22:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.71%E -2.58%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -7.03%E -4.85%K -15.62%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-11 22:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -6.71%E -2.58%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -7.67%E -5.33%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-11 15:24 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -6.71%E -2.58%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -7.67%E -5.33%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-11 15:25 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.57%EV -8.50%E -3.33%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.43%EV -5.75%E -3.91%K -12.23%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-11 21:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -10.30%E -4.12%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -3.82%E -2.55%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-11 15:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -10.30%E -4.12%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -3.82%E -2.55%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-11 15:25 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (7)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.85% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 65.15% | 0.3% | 2026-08-11 23:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.84I 35.21%NM 35.01% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.99% | 0.6% | 2026-08-11 23:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.84I 35.21%NM 35.01% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.99% | 0.6% | 2026-08-11 23:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.84I 35.21%NM 35.01% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.99% | 0.6% | 2026-08-11 23:30 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.84I 35.21%NM 35.01% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.99% | 0.6% | 2026-08-11 23:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.84I 35.21%NM 35.01% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.99% | 0.6% | 2026-08-11 23:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.88% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 65.12% | 2.4% | 2026-08-11 23:35 |