Language:English
Daniel Merida Aguilar v Alex Michelsen
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local)
Prediction 28.74%3.48fair odd
EV +0.596%
Edge +0.170%
Kelly +0.238%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 3.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.19%28.77%28.65%31.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.243.253.5033.33%30.85%30.82%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alex Michelsen (Visit)
Prediction 71.26%1.40fair odd
EV -1.66%
Edge -1.21%
Kelly -4.38%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.38
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.49%71.23%71.35%72.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.271.341.331.3878.74%74.76%75.19%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local): 28.74%; Alex Michelsen (Visit): 71.26%. For Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.48. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.596%.
Sportsbook Odds (66 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV +0.596%E +0.170%K +0.238%G +0.001% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.49I 28.65%NM 28.04%EV +0.308%E +0.088%K +0.124%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.96%EV -3.09%E -2.27%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.2% | 2026-08-07 16:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.46I 28.90%NM 27.46%EV -0.554%E -0.160%K -0.225%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.54%EV -6.65%E -5.08%K -21.46%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.97%EV -0.842%E -0.244%K -0.343%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.03%EV -4.51%E -3.37%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -0.842%E -0.244%K -0.343%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -5.94%E -4.50%K -18.56%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.57%EV -2.28%E -0.670%K -0.949%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.43%EV -3.09%E -2.27%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-07 16:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -2.28%E -0.670%K -0.949%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -4.51%E -3.37%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-07 16:31 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -2.28%E -0.670%K -0.949%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -4.51%E -3.37%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -2.28%E -0.670%K -0.949%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -2.28%E -0.670%K -0.949%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-07 16:08 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -2.28%E -0.670%K -0.949%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -7.36%E -5.66%K -24.55%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -2.28%E -0.670%K -0.949%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV -9.50%E -7.48%K -35.19%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.72%E -1.11%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -3.72%E -1.11%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.94%E -4.50%K -18.56%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -5.15%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -3.80%E -2.82%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -5.15%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -4.51%E -3.37%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-07 16:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -5.15%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -5.15%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-07 16:10 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -5.15%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-07 16:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.15%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.94%E -4.50%K -18.56%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.15%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.94%E -4.50%K -18.56%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-07 16:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.15%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.94%E -4.50%K -18.56%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.15%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.94%E -4.50%K -18.56%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-07 16:15 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.29I 30.40%NM 29.55%EV -5.44%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.45%EV -1.66%E -1.21%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-07 16:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.59%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-07 05:36 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.59%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-07 16:31 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.59%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-07 16:11 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.59%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.59%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.59%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.59%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-07 16:26 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.59%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-07 08:24 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -6.59%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.27%EV -6.65%E -5.08%K -21.46%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-07 15:50 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.24I 30.86%NM 29.26%EV -6.88%E -2.12%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.74%EV -4.51%E -3.37%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -3.09%E -2.27%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.80%E -2.82%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.80%E -2.82%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.80%E -2.82%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.80%E -2.82%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.80%E -2.82%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.80%E -2.82%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.80%E -2.82%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.80%E -2.82%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.80%E -2.82%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.80%E -2.82%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.80%E -2.82%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.80%E -2.82%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.80%E -2.82%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.80%E -2.82%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -4.51%E -3.37%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -4.51%E -3.37%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-07 15:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-07 08:25 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -5.94%E -4.50%K -18.56%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.19I 31.35%NM 29.89%EV -8.31%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.11%EV -3.09%E -2.27%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-07 16:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -9.46%E -3.00%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.79%EV -7.36%E -5.66%K -24.55%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.90%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.90%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-07 16:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.90%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-07 16:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.90%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-07 16:29 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.90%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-07 08:04 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -13.78%E -4.59%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -1.66%E -1.21%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -13.78%E -4.59%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -1.66%E -1.21%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -13.78%E -4.59%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.09%E -2.27%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-07 16:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -13.78%E -4.59%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.09%E -2.27%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-07 16:01 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -13.78%E -4.59%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.09%E -2.27%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-07 15:50 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -13.78%E -4.59%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-07 01:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 3.64I 27.47%NM 27.35% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.65% | 0.5% | 2026-08-07 16:26 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 72.01% | 0.6% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 72.01% | 0.6% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 72.01% | 0.6% | 2026-08-07 16:26 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.72% | 1.0% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.72% | 1.0% | 2026-08-07 16:31 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.13% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 71.87% | 1.6% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |