Language:English
Daniel Merida Aguilar v Alex Michelsen
Head to Head
Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local)
Prediction 32.93%3.04fair odd
EV -1.22%
Edge -0.407%
Kelly -0.610%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.55%33.01%32.91%34.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.862.903.0038.46%34.97%34.48%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alex Michelsen (Visit)
Prediction 67.07%1.49fair odd
EV -2.74%
Edge -1.89%
Kelly -6.10%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.63%66.99%67.09%68.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.411.411.4573.53%70.94%70.92%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local): 32.93%; Alex Michelsen (Visit): 67.07%. For Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.04. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.00, with an expected value of -1.22%; they do not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.43%EV -1.22%E -0.407%K -0.610%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.57%EV -3.41%E -2.37%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-08-06 12:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.27%EV -1.88%E -0.630%K -0.949%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.73%EV -4.76%E -3.35%K -11.32%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-06 12:35 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.12%EV -1.88%E -0.630%K -0.949%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.88%EV -5.43%E -3.85%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-06 11:04 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -2.87%E -0.972%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -4.76%E -3.35%K -11.32%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-06 12:31 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -2.87%E -0.972%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.45%EV -8.78%E -6.46%K -24.39%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-06 11:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.26%EV -3.20%E -1.09%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.74%EV -6.10%E -4.36%K -15.24%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-06 12:29 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.56%EV -3.85%E -1.32%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.44%EV -5.43%E -3.85%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-06 11:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -4.51%E -1.56%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.76%E -3.35%K -11.32%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-06 11:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -4.51%E -1.56%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.76%E -3.35%K -11.32%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-06 11:14 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -4.51%E -1.56%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.76%E -3.35%K -11.32%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-06 11:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -4.51%E -1.56%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -5.43%E -3.85%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-06 11:14 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -4.51%E -1.56%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -5.43%E -3.85%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-06 11:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -4.51%E -1.56%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -5.43%E -3.85%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-06 11:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -4.51%E -1.56%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -5.43%E -3.85%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-06 11:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -4.51%E -1.56%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -5.43%E -3.85%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-06 11:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -4.51%E -1.56%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -5.43%E -3.85%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-06 11:14 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -4.51%E -1.56%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -5.43%E -3.85%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-06 11:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -4.51%E -1.56%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -5.43%E -3.85%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-06 11:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -4.51%E -1.56%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -5.43%E -3.85%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-06 11:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -4.51%E -1.56%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -5.43%E -3.85%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-06 11:14 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -4.51%E -1.56%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -5.43%E -3.85%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-06 11:15 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -4.51%E -1.56%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -5.43%E -3.85%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-06 11:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -4.51%E -1.56%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -5.43%E -3.85%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-06 11:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -4.51%E -1.56%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -5.43%E -3.85%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-06 11:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -4.51%E -1.56%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.10%E -4.36%K -15.24%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-06 11:14 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -4.51%E -1.56%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.10%E -4.36%K -15.24%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-06 12:34 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -4.51%E -1.56%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.10%E -4.36%K -15.24%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-06 11:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.33%EV -5.17%E -1.80%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.67%EV -3.41%E -2.37%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-06 11:15 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -5.17%E -1.80%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -6.10%E -4.36%K -15.24%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-06 11:04 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -5.17%E -1.80%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -6.10%E -4.36%K -15.24%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-06 11:04 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -5.17%E -1.80%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -6.10%E -4.36%K -15.24%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-06 11:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -6.16%E -2.16%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -5.43%E -3.85%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-06 11:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -6.16%E -2.16%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -5.43%E -3.85%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-06 12:37 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -6.16%E -2.16%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -6.10%E -4.36%K -15.24%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-06 11:15 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -6.16%E -2.16%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -7.44%E -5.39%K -19.58%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-06 11:14 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -7.81%E -2.79%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -4.76%E -3.35%K -11.32%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-06 12:14 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -7.81%E -2.79%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -4.76%E -3.35%K -11.32%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-06 12:14 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -7.81%E -2.79%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -6.10%E -4.36%K -15.24%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-06 11:14 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -7.81%E -2.79%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -6.10%E -4.36%K -15.24%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-06 11:15 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.36%EV -8.79%E -3.17%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.64%EV -2.74%E -1.89%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-06 11:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -9.45%E -3.44%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.41%E -2.37%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-06 11:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -9.45%E -3.44%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.41%E -2.37%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-06 11:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -9.45%E -3.44%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.41%E -2.37%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-06 11:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -9.45%E -3.44%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.41%E -2.37%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-06 11:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -9.45%E -3.44%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.10%E -4.36%K -15.24%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-06 11:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -9.45%E -3.44%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 66.43%EV -6.77%E -4.87%K -17.35%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-06 11:14 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -11.10%E -4.11%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -6.10%E -4.36%K -15.24%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-06 11:10 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.66%EV -11.10%E -4.11%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 66.34%EV -8.11%E -5.92%K -21.92%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-06 11:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.34%EV -14.39%E -5.53%K -8.99%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.66%EV -8.78%E -6.46%K -24.39%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-06 11:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 3.13I 31.95%NM 30.60% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.40% | 4.4% | 2026-08-06 12:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.11% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.89% | 5.2% | 2026-08-06 11:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.11% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.89% | 5.2% | 2026-08-06 11:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.11% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.89% | 5.2% | 2026-08-06 11:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.24% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.76% | 7.7% | 2026-08-06 11:55 |