Idioma:Español
Daniel Merida Aguilar v Alex Michelsen
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local)
Predicción 28.74%3.48momio equitativo
EV +0.596%
Ventaja +0.170%
Kelly +0.238%
Crecimiento +0.001%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.50
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.19%28.77%28.65%31.51%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.003.243.253.5033.33%30.85%30.82%28.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Alex Michelsen (Visitante)
Predicción 71.26%1.40momio equitativo
EV -1.66%
Ventaja -1.21%
Kelly -4.38%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.38
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
68.49%71.23%71.35%72.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.271.341.331.3878.74%74.76%75.19%72.46%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local): 28.74%; Alex Michelsen (Visitante): 71.26%. Para Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.48. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.50, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.596%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (66 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV +0.596%E +0.170%K +0.238%G +0.001% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.49I 28.65%NM 28.04%EV +0.308%E +0.088%K +0.124%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.96%EV -3.09%E -2.27%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.2% | 2026-08-07 16:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.46I 28.90%NM 27.46%EV -0.554%E -0.160%K -0.225%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.54%EV -6.65%E -5.08%K -21.46%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.97%EV -0.842%E -0.244%K -0.343%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.03%EV -4.51%E -3.37%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -0.842%E -0.244%K -0.343%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -5.94%E -4.50%K -18.56%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.57%EV -2.28%E -0.670%K -0.949%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.43%EV -3.09%E -2.27%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-07 16:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -2.28%E -0.670%K -0.949%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -4.51%E -3.37%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-07 16:31 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -2.28%E -0.670%K -0.949%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -4.51%E -3.37%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -2.28%E -0.670%K -0.949%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -2.28%E -0.670%K -0.949%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-07 16:08 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -2.28%E -0.670%K -0.949%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -7.36%E -5.66%K -24.55%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -2.28%E -0.670%K -0.949%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV -9.50%E -7.48%K -35.19%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.72%E -1.11%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -3.72%E -1.11%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.94%E -4.50%K -18.56%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -5.15%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -3.80%E -2.82%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -5.15%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -4.51%E -3.37%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-07 16:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -5.15%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -5.15%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-07 16:10 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -5.15%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-07 16:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.15%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.94%E -4.50%K -18.56%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.15%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.94%E -4.50%K -18.56%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-07 16:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.15%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.94%E -4.50%K -18.56%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.15%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.94%E -4.50%K -18.56%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-07 16:15 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.29I 30.40%NM 29.55%EV -5.44%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.45%EV -1.66%E -1.21%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-07 16:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.59%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-07 05:36 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.59%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-07 16:31 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.59%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-07 16:11 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.59%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.59%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.59%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.59%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-07 16:26 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.59%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-07 08:24 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -6.59%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.27%EV -6.65%E -5.08%K -21.46%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-07 15:50 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.24I 30.86%NM 29.26%EV -6.88%E -2.12%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.74%EV -4.51%E -3.37%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -3.09%E -2.27%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.80%E -2.82%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.80%E -2.82%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.80%E -2.82%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.80%E -2.82%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.80%E -2.82%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.80%E -2.82%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.80%E -2.82%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.80%E -2.82%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.80%E -2.82%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.80%E -2.82%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.80%E -2.82%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.80%E -2.82%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.80%E -2.82%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.80%E -2.82%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -4.51%E -3.37%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -4.51%E -3.37%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-07 15:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-07 08:25 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -5.94%E -4.50%K -18.56%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.19I 31.35%NM 29.89%EV -8.31%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.11%EV -3.09%E -2.27%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-07 16:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -9.46%E -3.00%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.79%EV -7.36%E -5.66%K -24.55%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.90%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.90%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-07 16:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.90%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-07 16:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.90%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-07 16:29 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.90%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-07 08:04 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -13.78%E -4.59%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -1.66%E -1.21%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -13.78%E -4.59%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -1.66%E -1.21%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -13.78%E -4.59%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.09%E -2.27%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-07 16:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -13.78%E -4.59%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.09%E -2.27%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-07 16:01 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -13.78%E -4.59%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.09%E -2.27%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-07 15:50 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -13.78%E -4.59%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-07 01:20 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (7)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 3.64I 27.47%NM 27.35% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.65% | 0.5% | 2026-08-07 16:26 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 72.01% | 0.6% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 72.01% | 0.6% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 72.01% | 0.6% | 2026-08-07 16:26 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.72% | 1.0% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.72% | 1.0% | 2026-08-07 16:31 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.13% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 71.87% | 1.6% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |