Idioma:Português
Daniel Merida Aguilar v Alex Michelsen
Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →
Frente a frente
Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local)
Previsão 28.74%3.48odd justa
EV +0.596%
Vantagem +0.170%
Kelly +0.238%
Crescimento +0.001%
pressupondo odds máximas de 3.50
Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
27.19%28.77%28.65%31.51%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.003.243.253.5033.33%30.85%30.82%28.57%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Alex Michelsen (Visitante)
Previsão 71.26%1.40odd justa
EV -1.66%
Vantagem -1.21%
Kelly -4.38%
Crescimento +0.000%
pressupondo odds máximas de 1.38
Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
68.49%71.23%71.35%72.81%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.271.341.331.3878.74%74.76%75.19%72.46%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local): 28.74%; Alex Michelsen (Visitante): 71.26%. Para Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.48. 2 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 3.50, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +0.596%.
Odds das casas de apostas (66 casas de apostas)
Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.
| Casa de apostas | Local ▼ | Visitante | Margem | Atualização |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV +0.596%E +0.170%K +0.238%G +0.001% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.49I 28.65%NM 28.04%EV +0.308%E +0.088%K +0.124%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.96%EV -3.09%E -2.27%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.2% | 2026-08-07 16:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.46I 28.90%NM 27.46%EV -0.554%E -0.160%K -0.225%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.54%EV -6.65%E -5.08%K -21.46%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.97%EV -0.842%E -0.244%K -0.343%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.03%EV -4.51%E -3.37%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -0.842%E -0.244%K -0.343%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -5.94%E -4.50%K -18.56%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.57%EV -2.28%E -0.670%K -0.949%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.43%EV -3.09%E -2.27%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-07 16:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -2.28%E -0.670%K -0.949%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -4.51%E -3.37%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-07 16:31 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -2.28%E -0.670%K -0.949%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -4.51%E -3.37%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -2.28%E -0.670%K -0.949%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -2.28%E -0.670%K -0.949%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-07 16:08 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -2.28%E -0.670%K -0.949%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -7.36%E -5.66%K -24.55%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -2.28%E -0.670%K -0.949%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV -9.50%E -7.48%K -35.19%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.72%E -1.11%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -3.72%E -1.11%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.94%E -4.50%K -18.56%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -5.15%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -3.80%E -2.82%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -5.15%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -4.51%E -3.37%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-07 16:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -5.15%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -5.15%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-07 16:10 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -5.15%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-07 16:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.15%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.94%E -4.50%K -18.56%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.15%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.94%E -4.50%K -18.56%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-07 16:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.15%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.94%E -4.50%K -18.56%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.15%E -1.56%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.94%E -4.50%K -18.56%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-07 16:15 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.29I 30.40%NM 29.55%EV -5.44%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.45%EV -1.66%E -1.21%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-07 16:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.59%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-07 05:36 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.59%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-07 16:31 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.59%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-07 16:11 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.59%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.59%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.59%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.59%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-07 16:26 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.59%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-07 08:24 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -6.59%E -2.03%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.27%EV -6.65%E -5.08%K -21.46%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-07 15:50 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.24I 30.86%NM 29.26%EV -6.88%E -2.12%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.74%EV -4.51%E -3.37%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -3.09%E -2.27%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.80%E -2.82%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.80%E -2.82%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.80%E -2.82%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.80%E -2.82%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.80%E -2.82%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.80%E -2.82%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.80%E -2.82%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.80%E -2.82%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.80%E -2.82%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.80%E -2.82%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.80%E -2.82%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.80%E -2.82%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.80%E -2.82%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.80%E -2.82%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -4.51%E -3.37%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -4.51%E -3.37%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-07 15:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-07 08:25 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -8.03%E -2.51%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -5.94%E -4.50%K -18.56%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.19I 31.35%NM 29.89%EV -8.31%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.11%EV -3.09%E -2.27%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-07 16:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -9.46%E -3.00%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.79%EV -7.36%E -5.66%K -24.55%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.90%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-06 16:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.90%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-07 16:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.90%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-07 16:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.90%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-07 16:29 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.90%E -3.52%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-07 08:04 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -13.78%E -4.59%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -1.66%E -1.21%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -13.78%E -4.59%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -1.66%E -1.21%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -13.78%E -4.59%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.09%E -2.27%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-07 16:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -13.78%E -4.59%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.09%E -2.27%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-07 16:01 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -13.78%E -4.59%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.09%E -2.27%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-07 15:50 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -13.78%E -4.59%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -5.23%E -3.93%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-07 01:20 |
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas
Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.
Bolsas de apostas (7)
| Casa de apostas | Local | Visitante | Margem ▲ | Atualização |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 3.64I 27.47%NM 27.35% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.65% | 0.5% | 2026-08-07 16:26 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 72.01% | 0.6% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 72.01% | 0.6% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 72.01% | 0.6% | 2026-08-07 16:26 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.72% | 1.0% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.72% | 1.0% | 2026-08-07 16:31 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.13% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 71.87% | 1.6% | 2026-08-07 16:30 |