StandardmodellInterkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista)

Alex Michelsen v Francisco Cerundolo

Matchstart: 2026-08-05 21:08 UTC

Slutresultat: Alex Michelsen 2–0 Francisco Cerundolo

Slutodds — de beräknade sannolikheterna och väntevärdet från de sista odds som registrerades före matchstart, enligt den valda modellen. Matchen har börjat, så siffrorna är inte aktuella realtidsvärden. Bedöm tillförlitligheten hos varje modells sannolikhetsprognoser mot utfallen i samtliga avgjorda matcher →

Matchresultat

66 spelbolag (22 i analysen )

Beräknad sannolikhet för varje utfall enligt modellen: Interkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista)

Alex Michelsen (Hemma)

Prognos 58.79%1.70rättvist odds
EV -1.82%
Fördel -1.09%
Kelly -2.72%
Tillväxt +0.000%

med antagandet om högsta odds 1.67

Fördelning av spelbolagens sannolikhetsprognoser
56.85%58.83%58.78%61.07%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.
Oddsfördelning
1.531.611.621.6765.36%62.08%61.73%59.88%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.

Francisco Cerundolo (Borta)

Prognos 41.21%2.43rättvist odds
EV -1.09%
Fördel -0.455%
Kelly -0.780%
Tillväxt +0.000%

med antagandet om högsta odds 2.40

Fördelning av spelbolagens sannolikhetsprognoser
38.93%41.17%41.22%43.15%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.
Oddsfördelning
2.202.292.302.4045.45%43.60%43.48%41.67%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.

Vid de sista oddsen före start uppskattade Interkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista) för Matchresultat: Alex Michelsen (Hemma): 58.79%; Francisco Cerundolo (Borta): 41.21%. För Francisco Cerundolo (Borta) motsvarade uppskattningen ett rättvist decimalodds på 2.43. Inget kvalificerat spelbolag erbjöd slutodds över den nivån: bästa odds var 2.40, med väntevärdet -1.09%; det gav inget positivt väntevärde.

Spelbolagsodds (66 spelbolag)

Vi är inte knutna till något spelbolag och får ingen ersättning för transaktioner som genomförs hos dem.

SpelbolagHemma ▼BortaMarginalUppdaterat
Pinnacle🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 58.25%EV -1.82%E -1.09%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.75%EV -3.98%E -1.71%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-05 20:45
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.82%E -1.09%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.33%E -4.24%K -7.78%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-05 19:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.82%E -1.09%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.33%E -4.24%K -7.78%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-05 19:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.82%E -1.09%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.33%E -4.24%K -7.78%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-05 19:20
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.82%E -1.09%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.33%E -4.24%K -7.78%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-05 19:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.29%EV -2.41%E -1.45%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.71%EV -4.39%E -1.89%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-05 20:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.29%EV -2.41%E -1.45%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.71%EV -4.39%E -1.89%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-05 20:30
DraftKings🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -2.41%E -1.45%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -8.10%E -3.63%K -6.58%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-05 19:05
Dabble (AU)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -2.41%E -1.45%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -9.33%E -4.24%K -7.78%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-05 19:25
Coolbet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -3.00%E -1.82%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -3.15%E -1.34%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-05 19:25
Bovada🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.00%E -1.82%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -5.21%E -2.27%K -4.01%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-05 19:05
BetAnything🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.00%E -1.82%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -7.27%E -3.23%K -5.82%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-05 19:10
BetUS🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.00%E -1.82%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -7.27%E -3.23%K -5.82%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-05 19:05
PlayUp🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -3.00%E -1.82%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -9.33%E -4.24%K -7.78%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-05 19:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.38%EV -3.59%E -2.19%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.62%EV -5.21%E -2.27%K -4.01%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-05 17:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.38%EV -3.59%E -2.19%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.62%EV -5.21%E -2.27%K -4.01%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-05 17:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -3.59%E -2.19%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -9.33%E -4.24%K -7.78%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-05 18:35
Neds🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -3.59%E -2.19%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -9.33%E -4.24%K -7.78%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-05 18:35
1xBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -4.76%E -2.94%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -2.74%E -1.16%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-05 19:04
Fanatics🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.76%E -2.94%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.15%E -1.34%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-05 18:05
FanDuel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.09%EV -4.76%E -2.94%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.91%EV -3.57%E -1.52%K -2.66%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-05 19:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.99%EV -4.76%E -2.94%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.01%EV -3.98%E -1.71%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-05 20:49
ReBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -4.76%E -2.94%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -4.80%E -2.08%K -3.67%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-05 19:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -4.76%E -2.94%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -4.80%E -2.08%K -3.67%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-05 19:10
Betsson🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -4.76%E -2.94%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -4.80%E -2.08%K -3.67%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-05 19:10
NordicBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -4.76%E -2.94%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -4.80%E -2.08%K -3.67%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-05 19:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.76%E -2.94%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.21%E -2.27%K -4.01%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 19:09
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.76%E -2.94%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.21%E -2.27%K -4.01%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 19:10
theScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.76%E -2.94%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.21%E -2.27%K -4.01%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 19:10
betfred_uk🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.76%E -2.94%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.27%E -3.23%K -5.82%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-05 16:45
Sky Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.76%E -2.94%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.27%E -3.23%K -5.82%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-05 19:10
BetMGM🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.76%E -2.94%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.27%E -3.23%K -5.82%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-05 18:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.76%E -2.94%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.27%E -3.23%K -5.82%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-05 19:10
TAB🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -4.76%E -2.94%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -9.33%E -4.24%K -7.78%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-05 19:30
SportsBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -5.35%E -3.32%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -4.39%E -1.89%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 19:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -5.35%E -3.32%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -7.27%E -3.23%K -5.82%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-05 19:25
GTbets🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.60%EV -5.94%E -3.71%K -9.90%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.40%EV -2.74%E -1.16%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-05 17:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.94%E -3.71%K -9.90%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -3.98%E -1.71%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 18:55
LeoVegas🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.94%E -3.71%K -9.90%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.21%E -2.27%K -4.01%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-05 20:05
Betway🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.94%E -3.71%K -9.90%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.21%E -2.27%K -4.01%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-05 18:04
NetBet (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -5.94%E -3.71%K -9.90%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -7.27%E -3.23%K -5.82%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-05 19:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -5.94%E -3.71%K -9.90%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -9.33%E -4.24%K -7.78%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-05 18:35
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -5.94%E -3.71%K -9.90%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -9.33%E -4.24%K -7.78%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-05 18:35
betano_uk🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -5.94%E -3.71%K -9.90%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -9.33%E -4.24%K -7.78%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-05 19:10
Bet Victor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -5.94%E -3.71%K -9.90%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -9.33%E -4.24%K -7.78%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-05 19:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -6.53%E -4.10%K -11.06%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -3.15%E -1.34%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 17:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -6.53%E -4.10%K -11.06%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -5.21%E -2.27%K -4.01%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-05 18:05
Fliff🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%EV -6.53%E -4.10%K -11.06%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -7.27%E -3.23%K -5.82%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-05 19:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -7.11%E -4.50%K -12.27%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -3.15%E -1.34%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-05 17:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -7.11%E -4.50%K -12.27%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -3.15%E -1.34%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-05 17:25
BoyleSports🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -7.70%E -4.91%K -13.51%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -1.92%E -0.805%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-04 12:40
Unibet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.70%E -4.91%K -13.51%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.15%E -1.34%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-05 17:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.70%E -4.91%K -13.51%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.15%E -1.34%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-05 17:25
TABtouch🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.70%E -4.91%K -13.51%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.15%E -1.34%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-05 17:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.70%E -4.91%K -13.51%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.15%E -1.34%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-05 17:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.70%E -4.91%K -13.51%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.15%E -1.34%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-05 17:25
Grosvenor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.70%E -4.91%K -13.51%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.15%E -1.34%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-05 17:25
BetRivers🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.70%E -4.91%K -13.51%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.15%E -1.34%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-05 17:25
Casumo🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.70%E -4.91%K -13.51%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.15%E -1.34%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-05 17:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.70%E -4.91%K -13.51%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.15%E -1.34%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-05 17:25
betPARX🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.70%E -4.91%K -13.51%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.15%E -1.34%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-05 17:23
ATG (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.70%E -4.91%K -13.51%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.15%E -1.34%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-05 17:25
Bally Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.70%E -4.91%K -13.51%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.15%E -1.34%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-05 17:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -8.29%E -5.31%K -14.80%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -5.21%E -2.27%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-05 17:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -8.88%E -5.73%K -16.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -5.21%E -2.27%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-05 19:10
Caesars🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -10.05%E -6.57%K -18.97%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -1.09%E -0.455%K -0.780%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-04 12:09
Marginal = Marginal · I = Implicit sannolikhet · NM = Marginalrensad sannolikhet · EV = Väntevärde · E = Fördel · K = Kelly-kriteriet · G = Spelkapitalets tillväxt

Uppdaterat anger när respektive spelbolag senast ändrade sitt odds. En äldre tidpunkt betyder därför att oddset inte har rört sig, inte att det är inaktuellt. Spelbolag som inte har observerats under de senaste cirka 15 minuterna utesluts normalt; endast om dataflödet för en hel marknad tystnar visas i stället de senast registrerade oddsen.

Spelbörser (7)

SpelbolagHemmaBortaMarginal ▲Uppdaterat
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16%0.5%2026-08-05 20:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16%0.5%2026-08-05 20:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16%0.5%2026-08-05 20:45
Matchbook◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16%0.5%2026-08-05 20:45
ProphetX◎1.71I 58.48%NM 57.78%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.22%1.2%2026-08-05 20:45
Smarkets◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.06%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.94%1.9%2026-08-05 20:50
Novig◎1.71I 58.48%NM 57.36%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.64%2.0%2026-08-05 20:50