Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Basaksehir v Kasimpasa SK

2026-08-30 18:30 UTC — Turkey Super League

Resultado del partido

24 corredores (12 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Basaksehir (Local)

Predicción 58.38%1.71momio equitativo
EV +6.25%
Ventaja +3.44%
Kelly +7.62%
Crecimiento +0.477%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.82

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
51.07%57.91%58.43%59.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.501.601.591.8266.67%62.66%62.89%54.95%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Kasimpasa SK (Visitante)

Predicción 18.50%5.41momio equitativo
EV +1.74%
Ventaja +0.317%
Kelly +0.388%
Crecimiento +0.007%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.24%18.81%18.45%24.14%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.854.845.005.5025.97%20.64%20.00%18.18%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 23.12%4.33momio equitativo
EV -2.66%
Ventaja -0.632%
Kelly -0.829%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.21

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.65%23.28%23.13%24.79%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.603.933.984.2127.78%25.47%25.16%23.75%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Basaksehir (Local): 58.38%; Kasimpasa SK (Visitante): 18.50%; Empate: 23.12%. Para Basaksehir (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 1.71. 2 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 1.82, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +6.25%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (24 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Betsson🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.07%EV +6.25%E +3.44%K +7.62%G +0.477%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.14%EV -28.78%E -7.47%K -10.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.79%EV -13.30%E -3.55%K -4.84%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-23 18:55
NordicBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.07%EV +6.25%E +3.44%K +7.62%G +0.477%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.14%EV -28.78%E -7.47%K -10.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.79%EV -13.30%E -3.55%K -4.84%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-23 18:55
1xBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.71%EV -3.67%E -2.23%K -5.65%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.28%EV -1.96%E -0.369%K -0.455%G +0.000%4.21I 23.75%NM 23.01%EV -2.66%E -0.632%K -0.829%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-23 22:09
Pinnacle🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.50%EV -5.42%E -3.35%K -8.75%G +0.000%5.17I 19.34%NM 18.33%EV -4.36%E -0.843%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.17%EV -5.44%E -1.33%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-23 22:20
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.85%EV -6.01%E -3.73%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -11.20%E -2.33%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.09%EV -12.14%E -3.20%K -4.34%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-23 22:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.85%EV -6.01%E -3.73%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -11.20%E -2.33%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.09%EV -12.14%E -3.20%K -4.34%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-23 22:19
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.85%EV -6.01%E -3.73%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -11.20%E -2.33%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.09%EV -12.14%E -3.20%K -4.34%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-23 22:19
Coolbet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.81%EV -6.59%E -4.12%K -10.99%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.40%EV +1.74%E +0.317%K +0.388%G +0.007%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -2.89%E -0.689%K -0.904%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-23 21:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.47%EV -6.59%E -4.12%K -10.99%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -7.50%E -1.50%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -5.21%E -1.27%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-23 22:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -6.59%E -4.12%K -10.99%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -7.50%E -1.50%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -7.52%E -1.88%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-23 22:15
Codere (IT)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.75%EV -6.59%E -4.12%K -10.99%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.86%EV -9.35%E -1.91%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.39%EV -8.67%E -2.20%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-23 22:15
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.63%EV -7.18%E -4.51%K -12.16%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.24%EV +1.74%E +0.317%K +0.388%G +0.007%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.13%EV -5.21%E -1.27%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-23 21:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.67%EV -7.18%E -4.51%K -12.16%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.29%EV -5.65%E -1.11%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.03%EV -6.36%E -1.57%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-23 22:14
SportsBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.45%EV -8.34%E -5.31%K -14.64%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.78%EV -2.88%E -0.549%K -0.678%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -5.21%E -1.27%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-23 21:24
FanDuel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.35%EV -8.34%E -5.31%K -14.64%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.92%EV -3.80%E -0.732%K -0.906%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -5.21%E -1.27%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-23 21:24
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -8.34%E -5.31%K -14.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -7.50%E -1.50%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -7.52%E -1.88%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-23 21:24
Bet Right🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.26%EV -8.34%E -5.31%K -14.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.29%EV -7.50%E -1.50%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.45%EV -9.83%E -2.52%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-23 21:24
BoyleSports🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.91%EV -9.51%E -6.14%K -17.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -7.50%E -1.50%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -7.52%E -1.88%K -2.51%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-23 21:04
Betclic (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.77%EV -9.51%E -6.14%K -17.29%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.85%EV -12.13%E -2.55%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 23.38%EV -11.45%E -2.99%K -4.05%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-23 22:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 57.14%EV -10.09%E -6.55%K -18.69%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.00%EV -18.60%E -4.23%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.86%EV -10.99%E -2.85%K -3.85%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-23 22:14
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -10.68%E -6.98%K -20.15%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -7.50%E -1.50%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -7.52%E -1.88%K -2.51%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-23 21:23
Unibet (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 56.84%EV -10.68%E -6.98%K -20.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.33%EV -16.75%E -3.72%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.83%EV -15.61%E -4.28%K -5.89%G +0.000%15.0%2026-08-23 22:14
Sky Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 57.14%EV -12.43%E -8.29%K -24.86%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.05%EV -16.75%E -3.72%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.81%EV -16.77%E -4.66%K -6.45%G +0.000%16.7%2026-08-23 21:24
Winamax (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 56.10%EV -12.43%E -8.29%K -24.86%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 20.52%EV -24.15%E -5.89%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.38%EV -16.77%E -4.66%K -6.45%G +0.000%18.8%2026-08-23 22:15
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi1.61I 62.11%NM 59.10%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.09%4.17I 23.98%NM 22.82%5.1%2026-08-23 21:35
Smarkets1.52I 65.79%NM 56.57%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.54%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.89%16.3%2026-08-23 22:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.09I 91.74%NM 32.72%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.64%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.64%180.4%2026-08-23 20:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.09I 91.74%NM 32.72%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.64%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.64%180.4%2026-08-23 20:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-23 19:55
Arbitraje (402 combinaciones) +3.22%Betsson 1.82 (56.7%) / Coolbet 5.50 (18.8%) / 1xBet 4.21 (24.5%)Ver las 402 combinaciones
Basaksehir (Local)Kasimpasa SK (Visitante)EmpateMargen
Betsson🎯 1.82 (56.7%)Coolbet🎯 5.50 (18.8%)1xBet🎯 4.21 (24.5%)+3.22%
Betsson🎯 1.82 (56.7%)Fanatics🎯 5.50 (18.8%)1xBet🎯 4.21 (24.5%)+3.22%
NordicBet🎯 1.82 (56.7%)Coolbet🎯 5.50 (18.8%)1xBet🎯 4.21 (24.5%)+3.22%
NordicBet🎯 1.82 (56.7%)Fanatics🎯 5.50 (18.8%)1xBet🎯 4.21 (24.5%)+3.22%
Betsson🎯 1.82 (56.7%)Coolbet🎯 5.50 (18.8%)Coolbet🎯 4.20 (24.6%)+3.16%
Betsson🎯 1.82 (56.7%)Fanatics🎯 5.50 (18.8%)Coolbet🎯 4.20 (24.6%)+3.16%
NordicBet🎯 1.82 (56.7%)Coolbet🎯 5.50 (18.8%)Coolbet🎯 4.20 (24.6%)+3.16%
NordicBet🎯 1.82 (56.7%)Fanatics🎯 5.50 (18.8%)Coolbet🎯 4.20 (24.6%)+3.16%
Betsson🎯 1.82 (56.3%)Coolbet🎯 5.50 (18.6%)Fanatics🎯 4.10 (25.0%)+2.55%
Betsson🎯 1.82 (56.3%)Coolbet🎯 5.50 (18.6%)Tipico (DE)🎯 4.10 (25.0%)+2.55%
Betsson🎯 1.82 (56.3%)Coolbet🎯 5.50 (18.6%)SportsBet🎯 4.10 (25.0%)+2.55%
Betsson🎯 1.82 (56.3%)Coolbet🎯 5.50 (18.6%)FanDuel🎯 4.10 (25.0%)+2.55%
Betsson🎯 1.82 (56.3%)Fanatics🎯 5.50 (18.6%)Fanatics🎯 4.10 (25.0%)+2.55%
Betsson🎯 1.82 (56.3%)Fanatics🎯 5.50 (18.6%)Tipico (DE)🎯 4.10 (25.0%)+2.55%
Betsson🎯 1.82 (56.3%)Fanatics🎯 5.50 (18.6%)SportsBet🎯 4.10 (25.0%)+2.55%
Betsson🎯 1.82 (56.3%)Fanatics🎯 5.50 (18.6%)FanDuel🎯 4.10 (25.0%)+2.55%
NordicBet🎯 1.82 (56.3%)Coolbet🎯 5.50 (18.6%)Fanatics🎯 4.10 (25.0%)+2.55%
NordicBet🎯 1.82 (56.3%)Coolbet🎯 5.50 (18.6%)Tipico (DE)🎯 4.10 (25.0%)+2.55%
NordicBet🎯 1.82 (56.3%)Coolbet🎯 5.50 (18.6%)SportsBet🎯 4.10 (25.0%)+2.55%
NordicBet🎯 1.82 (56.3%)Coolbet🎯 5.50 (18.6%)FanDuel🎯 4.10 (25.0%)+2.55%
NordicBet🎯 1.82 (56.3%)Fanatics🎯 5.50 (18.6%)Fanatics🎯 4.10 (25.0%)+2.55%
NordicBet🎯 1.82 (56.3%)Fanatics🎯 5.50 (18.6%)Tipico (DE)🎯 4.10 (25.0%)+2.55%
NordicBet🎯 1.82 (56.3%)Fanatics🎯 5.50 (18.6%)SportsBet🎯 4.10 (25.0%)+2.55%
NordicBet🎯 1.82 (56.3%)Fanatics🎯 5.50 (18.6%)FanDuel🎯 4.10 (25.0%)+2.55%
Betsson🎯 1.82 (56.3%)1xBet🎯 5.30 (19.3%)1xBet🎯 4.21 (24.3%)+2.49%
NordicBet🎯 1.82 (56.3%)1xBet🎯 5.30 (19.3%)1xBet🎯 4.21 (24.3%)+2.49%
Betsson🎯 1.82 (56.3%)Coolbet🎯 5.50 (18.6%)Pinnacle🎯 4.09 (25.1%)+2.48%
Betsson🎯 1.82 (56.3%)Fanatics🎯 5.50 (18.6%)Pinnacle🎯 4.09 (25.1%)+2.48%
NordicBet🎯 1.82 (56.3%)Coolbet🎯 5.50 (18.6%)Pinnacle🎯 4.09 (25.1%)+2.48%
NordicBet🎯 1.82 (56.3%)Fanatics🎯 5.50 (18.6%)Pinnacle🎯 4.09 (25.1%)+2.48%
Betsson🎯 1.82 (56.3%)1xBet🎯 5.30 (19.3%)Coolbet🎯 4.20 (24.4%)+2.44%
NordicBet🎯 1.82 (56.3%)1xBet🎯 5.30 (19.3%)Coolbet🎯 4.20 (24.4%)+2.44%
Betsson🎯 1.82 (56.2%)SportsBet🎯 5.25 (19.5%)1xBet🎯 4.21 (24.3%)+2.31%
NordicBet🎯 1.82 (56.2%)SportsBet🎯 5.25 (19.5%)1xBet🎯 4.21 (24.3%)+2.31%
Betsson🎯 1.82 (56.2%)SportsBet🎯 5.25 (19.5%)Coolbet🎯 4.20 (24.3%)+2.25%
NordicBet🎯 1.82 (56.2%)SportsBet🎯 5.25 (19.5%)Coolbet🎯 4.20 (24.3%)+2.25%
Betsson🎯 1.82 (56.2%)Coolbet🎯 5.50 (18.6%)Marathon Bet🎯 4.05 (25.2%)+2.23%
Betsson🎯 1.82 (56.2%)Fanatics🎯 5.50 (18.6%)Marathon Bet🎯 4.05 (25.2%)+2.23%
NordicBet🎯 1.82 (56.2%)Coolbet🎯 5.50 (18.6%)Marathon Bet🎯 4.05 (25.2%)+2.23%
NordicBet🎯 1.82 (56.2%)Fanatics🎯 5.50 (18.6%)Marathon Bet🎯 4.05 (25.2%)+2.23%
Betsson🎯 1.82 (56.1%)FanDuel🎯 5.20 (19.6%)1xBet🎯 4.21 (24.3%)+2.12%
NordicBet🎯 1.82 (56.1%)FanDuel🎯 5.20 (19.6%)1xBet🎯 4.21 (24.3%)+2.12%
Betsson🎯 1.82 (56.1%)FanDuel🎯 5.20 (19.6%)Coolbet🎯 4.20 (24.3%)+2.06%
NordicBet🎯 1.82 (56.1%)FanDuel🎯 5.20 (19.6%)Coolbet🎯 4.20 (24.3%)+2.06%
Betsson🎯 1.82 (56.0%)Pinnacle🎯 5.17 (19.7%)1xBet🎯 4.21 (24.2%)+2.00%
NordicBet🎯 1.82 (56.0%)Pinnacle🎯 5.17 (19.7%)1xBet🎯 4.21 (24.2%)+2.00%
Betsson🎯 1.82 (56.0%)Pinnacle🎯 5.17 (19.7%)Coolbet🎯 4.20 (24.3%)+1.94%
NordicBet🎯 1.82 (56.0%)Pinnacle🎯 5.17 (19.7%)Coolbet🎯 4.20 (24.3%)+1.94%
Betsson🎯 1.82 (56.0%)Coolbet🎯 5.50 (18.5%)Unibet (UK)🎯 4.00 (25.5%)+1.91%
Betsson🎯 1.82 (56.0%)Coolbet🎯 5.50 (18.5%)betfred_uk🎯 4.00 (25.5%)+1.91%

Mostrando 50 de 402 combinaciones