Language:English
Barcelona v Athletic Bilbao
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Barcelona (Local)
Prediction 66.49%1.50fair odd
EV -3.59%
Edge -2.48%
Kelly -7.99%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.44%66.56%66.46%68.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.391.401.4578.13%71.71%71.43%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Athletic Bilbao (Visit)
Prediction 14.26%7.01fair odd
EV +9.77%
Edge +1.27%
Kelly +1.46%
Growth +0.143%
assuming max odds 7.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.76%14.26%14.31%15.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.606.656.507.7017.86%15.04%15.38%12.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 19.26%5.19fair odd
EV +2.06%
Edge +0.390%
Kelly +0.480%
Growth +0.010%
assuming max odds 5.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.66%19.19%19.22%20.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.354.794.755.3022.99%20.87%21.05%18.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Barcelona (Local): 66.49%; Athletic Bilbao (Visit): 14.26%; Draw: 19.26%. For Athletic Bilbao (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.01. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.77%.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.83%EV -3.59%E -2.48%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 7.70I 12.99%NM 12.77%EV +9.77%E +1.27%K +1.46%G +0.143% | 5.07I 19.72%NM 19.40%EV -2.36%E -0.466%K -0.581%G +0.000% | 1.7% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.84%EV -4.92%E -3.44%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.76%EV +8.35%E +1.10%K +1.26%G +0.106% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.40%EV -3.71%E -0.743%K -0.928%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.56%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.62%EV -1.79%E -0.350%K -0.436%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-14 05:16 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -3.71%E -0.743%K -0.928%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-01 20:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -3.71%E -0.743%K -0.928%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-01 20:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.59%EV -5.59%E -3.94%K -13.31%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.91%EV -8.53%E -1.80%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-14 05:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.98%EV -7.58%E -5.46%K -19.45%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.50%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53%EV -1.79%E -0.350%K -0.436%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-06 07:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.77%EV -8.91%E -6.51%K -24.09%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.46%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.78%EV +2.06%E +0.390%K +0.480%G +0.010% | 6.1% | 2026-07-06 07:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.29%EV -8.91%E -6.51%K -24.09%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.34%EV -1.79%E -0.350%K -0.436%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-06 07:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -9.49%E -2.02%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-02 22:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -9.49%E -2.02%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-02 22:19 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -9.49%E -2.02%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-02 22:19 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -9.49%E -2.02%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-02 22:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -9.49%E -2.02%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-02 22:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -9.49%E -2.02%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-02 23:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -9.49%E -2.02%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-02 23:09 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -9.49%E -2.02%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-02 23:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -9.49%E -2.02%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-02 23:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -9.49%E -2.02%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-02 23:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -9.49%E -2.02%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-02 23:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -9.49%E -2.02%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-03 02:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.00%EV -4.26%E -2.96%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 6.90I 14.49%NM 13.77%EV -1.63%E -0.237%K -0.277%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.22%EV -9.49%E -2.02%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-11 08:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.00%EV -4.26%E -2.96%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 6.90I 14.49%NM 13.77%EV -1.63%E -0.237%K -0.277%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.22%EV -9.49%E -2.02%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-11 08:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.38%EV -7.58%E -5.46%K -19.45%G +0.000% | 6.82I 14.66%NM 13.73%EV -2.77%E -0.407%K -0.477%G +0.000% | 4.96I 20.16%NM 18.88%EV -4.48%E -0.904%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-10 10:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.25%EV -4.26%E -2.96%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.68%EV -7.34%E -1.13%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -3.71%E -0.743%K -0.928%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-06 16:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.40%EV -4.92%E -3.44%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.61%EV -7.34%E -1.13%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.99%EV -3.71%E -0.743%K -0.928%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-06 16:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.04%EV -5.59%E -3.94%K -13.31%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.43%EV -7.34%E -1.13%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -7.56%E -1.58%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-18 04:14 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -7.34%E -1.13%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -3.71%E -0.743%K -0.928%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-01 23:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -7.34%E -1.13%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -3.71%E -0.743%K -0.928%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-06 16:54 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -7.34%E -1.13%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -3.71%E -0.743%K -0.928%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-06 17:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -7.34%E -1.13%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -3.71%E -0.743%K -0.928%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-06 16:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.51%EV -9.58%E -7.04%K -26.61%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -7.34%E -1.13%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -3.71%E -0.743%K -0.928%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-07-09 08:39 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -7.34%E -1.13%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -13.34%E -2.96%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-17 15:25 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -7.34%E -1.13%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -13.34%E -2.96%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-17 15:23 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.87%EV -9.58%E -7.04%K -26.61%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.99%EV -7.34%E -1.13%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.14%EV -8.53%E -1.80%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-01 20:50 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.87%EV -9.58%E -7.04%K -26.61%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.99%EV -7.34%E -1.13%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.14%EV -8.53%E -1.80%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-13 11:58 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.09%EV -4.26%E -2.96%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.87%EV -8.76%E -1.37%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.04%EV -3.71%E -0.743%K -0.928%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-11 04:54 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.06%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.23%EV -8.76%E -1.37%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.70%EV -15.27%E -3.47%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-07-16 17:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.84%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.52%EV -10.90%E -1.74%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.63%EV -15.27%E -3.47%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-07-22 09:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 65.02%EV -8.25%E -5.98%K -21.71%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.36%EV -10.90%E -1.74%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.63%EV -16.23%E -3.73%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-07-02 22:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 65.02%EV -8.25%E -5.98%K -21.71%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.36%EV -10.90%E -1.74%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.63%EV -16.23%E -3.73%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-07-02 22:19 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.03%EV -8.91%E -6.51%K -24.09%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -14.46%E -2.41%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.66%EV +0.139%E +0.027%K +0.033%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-07-11 05:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.57%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -14.46%E -2.41%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -7.56%E -1.58%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-07-11 05:24 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.44%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -14.46%E -2.41%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.29%EV -8.53%E -1.80%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-11 04:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.09%EV -9.58%E -7.04%K -26.61%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.98%EV -14.46%E -2.41%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.92%EV -8.53%E -1.80%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-07-05 11:35 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 66.48%EV -14.90%E -11.64%K -53.20%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.18%EV -14.46%E -2.41%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 19.34%EV -15.27%E -3.47%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 17.5% | 2026-07-16 08:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 66.72%EV -10.24%E -7.59%K -29.27%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.27%EV -15.89%E -2.69%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.01%EV -3.71%E -0.743%K -0.928%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-07-13 16:35 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 65.41%EV -10.91%E -8.14%K -32.08%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.11%EV -17.31%E -2.99%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.48%EV -13.34%E -2.96%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-07-11 04:54 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 64.44%EV -9.58%E -7.04%K -26.61%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 15.65%EV -20.17%E -3.60%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 19.92%EV -15.27%E -3.47%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-07-11 05:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.68% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.12% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.20% | 4.2% | 2026-07-14 05:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.68% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.12% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.20% | 4.2% | 2026-07-14 00:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.68% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.12% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.20% | 4.2% | 2026-07-14 05:19 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 64.87% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.24% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88% | 9.3% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |