The School of Odds

Barcelona v Athletic Bilbao

2026-08-16 19:00 UTC — La Liga - Spain

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Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Barcelona (Local)

Prediction 66.38%1.51fair odd
EV -4.41%
Edge -3.06%
Kelly -10.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.84%66.38%66.38%66.76%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.381.401.401.4472%71%71%69%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Athletic Bilbao (Visit)

Prediction 13.56%7.37fair odd
EV -5.06%
Edge -0.722%
Kelly -0.843%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 7.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.35%13.56%13.56%14.52%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
6.256.847.007.0016%15%14%14%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 20.05%4.99fair odd
EV -4.74%
Edge -0.998%
Kelly -1.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.89%20.05%20.05%20.70%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.354.634.704.7523%22%21%21%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betsson1.44I 69.44%NM 66.00%EV -4.41%E -3.06%K -10.02%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.77%EV -6.41%E -0.929%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.22%EV -5.74%E -1.22%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-11 08:49
NordicBet1.44I 69.44%NM 66.00%EV -4.41%E -3.06%K -10.02%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.77%EV -6.41%E -0.929%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.22%EV -5.74%E -1.22%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-11 08:50
TAB1.42I 70.42%NM 66.59%EV -5.74%E -4.04%K -13.66%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -5.06%E -0.722%K -0.843%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.91%EV -4.74%E -0.998%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-14 05:29
LeoVegas (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -7.06%E -5.05%K -17.66%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -5.06%E -0.722%K -0.843%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -5.74%E -1.22%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-02 22:20
ATG (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -7.06%E -5.05%K -17.66%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -5.06%E -0.722%K -0.843%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -5.74%E -1.22%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-02 22:19
Svenska Spel1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -7.06%E -5.05%K -17.66%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -5.06%E -0.722%K -0.843%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -5.74%E -1.22%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-02 22:19
Bally Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -7.06%E -5.05%K -17.66%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -5.06%E -0.722%K -0.843%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -5.74%E -1.22%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-02 22:40
betPARX1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -7.06%E -5.05%K -17.66%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -5.06%E -0.722%K -0.843%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -5.74%E -1.22%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-02 22:45
Casumo1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -7.06%E -5.05%K -17.66%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -5.06%E -0.722%K -0.843%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -5.74%E -1.22%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-02 23:05
Unibet (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -7.06%E -5.05%K -17.66%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -5.06%E -0.722%K -0.843%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -5.74%E -1.22%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-02 23:09
Grosvenor1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -7.06%E -5.05%K -17.66%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -5.06%E -0.722%K -0.843%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -5.74%E -1.22%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-02 23:10
Unibet (NL)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -7.06%E -5.05%K -17.66%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -5.06%E -0.722%K -0.843%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -5.74%E -1.22%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-02 23:10
Unibet1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -7.06%E -5.05%K -17.66%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -5.06%E -0.722%K -0.843%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -5.74%E -1.22%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-02 23:10
TABtouch1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -7.06%E -5.05%K -17.66%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -5.06%E -0.722%K -0.843%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -5.74%E -1.22%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-02 23:10
BetRivers1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -7.06%E -5.05%K -17.66%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -5.06%E -0.722%K -0.843%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -5.74%E -1.22%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-03 02:20
PMU (FR)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.06%EV -7.06%E -5.05%K -17.66%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.23%EV -13.19%E -2.06%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.70%EV -11.76%E -2.67%K -3.46%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-16 17:30
PlayUp1.40I 71.43%NM 64.84%EV -7.06%E -5.05%K -17.66%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.52%EV -15.23%E -2.44%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.63%EV -11.76%E -2.67%K -3.46%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-22 09:00
LiveScore Bet1.38I 72.46%NM 65.02%EV -8.39%E -6.08%K -22.09%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.36%EV -15.23%E -2.44%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.63%EV -12.76%E -2.93%K -3.81%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-02 22:20
Virgin Bet1.38I 72.46%NM 65.02%EV -8.39%E -6.08%K -22.09%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.36%EV -15.23%E -2.44%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.63%EV -12.76%E -2.93%K -3.81%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-02 22:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.