Idioma:Español
Barcelona v Athletic Bilbao
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Barcelona (Local)
Predicción 66.49%1.50momio equitativo
EV -3.59%
Ventaja -2.48%
Kelly -7.99%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.45
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
64.44%66.56%66.46%68.77%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.281.391.401.4578.13%71.71%71.43%68.97%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Athletic Bilbao (Visitante)
Predicción 14.26%7.01momio equitativo
EV +9.77%
Ventaja +1.27%
Kelly +1.46%
Crecimiento +0.143%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.70
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
12.76%14.26%14.31%15.65%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.606.656.507.7017.86%15.04%15.38%12.99%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 19.26%5.19momio equitativo
EV +2.06%
Ventaja +0.390%
Kelly +0.480%
Crecimiento +0.010%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.30
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.66%19.19%19.22%20.70%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.354.794.755.3022.99%20.87%21.05%18.87%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Barcelona (Local): 66.49%; Athletic Bilbao (Visitante): 14.26%; Empate: 19.26%. Para Athletic Bilbao (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 7.01. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 7.70, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +9.77%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (49 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.83%EV -3.59%E -2.48%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 7.70I 12.99%NM 12.77%EV +9.77%E +1.27%K +1.46%G +0.143% | 5.07I 19.72%NM 19.40%EV -2.36%E -0.466%K -0.581%G +0.000% | 1.7% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.84%EV -4.92%E -3.44%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.76%EV +8.35%E +1.10%K +1.26%G +0.106% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.40%EV -3.71%E -0.743%K -0.928%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.56%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.62%EV -1.79%E -0.350%K -0.436%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-14 05:16 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -3.71%E -0.743%K -0.928%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-01 20:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -3.71%E -0.743%K -0.928%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-01 20:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.59%EV -5.59%E -3.94%K -13.31%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.91%EV -8.53%E -1.80%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-14 05:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.98%EV -7.58%E -5.46%K -19.45%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.50%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53%EV -1.79%E -0.350%K -0.436%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-06 07:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.77%EV -8.91%E -6.51%K -24.09%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.46%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.78%EV +2.06%E +0.390%K +0.480%G +0.010% | 6.1% | 2026-07-06 07:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.29%EV -8.91%E -6.51%K -24.09%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.34%EV -1.79%E -0.350%K -0.436%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-06 07:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -9.49%E -2.02%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-02 22:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -9.49%E -2.02%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-02 22:19 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -9.49%E -2.02%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-02 22:19 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -9.49%E -2.02%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-02 22:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -9.49%E -2.02%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-02 22:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -9.49%E -2.02%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-02 23:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -9.49%E -2.02%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-02 23:09 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -9.49%E -2.02%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-02 23:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -9.49%E -2.02%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-02 23:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -9.49%E -2.02%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-02 23:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -9.49%E -2.02%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-02 23:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -9.49%E -2.02%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-03 02:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.00%EV -4.26%E -2.96%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 6.90I 14.49%NM 13.77%EV -1.63%E -0.237%K -0.277%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.22%EV -9.49%E -2.02%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-11 08:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.00%EV -4.26%E -2.96%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 6.90I 14.49%NM 13.77%EV -1.63%E -0.237%K -0.277%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.22%EV -9.49%E -2.02%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-11 08:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.38%EV -7.58%E -5.46%K -19.45%G +0.000% | 6.82I 14.66%NM 13.73%EV -2.77%E -0.407%K -0.477%G +0.000% | 4.96I 20.16%NM 18.88%EV -4.48%E -0.904%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-10 10:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.25%EV -4.26%E -2.96%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.68%EV -7.34%E -1.13%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -3.71%E -0.743%K -0.928%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-06 16:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.40%EV -4.92%E -3.44%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.61%EV -7.34%E -1.13%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.99%EV -3.71%E -0.743%K -0.928%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-06 16:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.04%EV -5.59%E -3.94%K -13.31%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.43%EV -7.34%E -1.13%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -7.56%E -1.58%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-18 04:14 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -7.34%E -1.13%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -3.71%E -0.743%K -0.928%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-01 23:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -7.34%E -1.13%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -3.71%E -0.743%K -0.928%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-06 16:54 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -7.34%E -1.13%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -3.71%E -0.743%K -0.928%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-06 17:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -7.34%E -1.13%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -3.71%E -0.743%K -0.928%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-06 16:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.51%EV -9.58%E -7.04%K -26.61%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -7.34%E -1.13%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -3.71%E -0.743%K -0.928%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-07-09 08:39 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -7.34%E -1.13%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -13.34%E -2.96%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-17 15:25 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -7.34%E -1.13%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -13.34%E -2.96%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-17 15:23 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.87%EV -9.58%E -7.04%K -26.61%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.99%EV -7.34%E -1.13%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.14%EV -8.53%E -1.80%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-01 20:50 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.87%EV -9.58%E -7.04%K -26.61%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.99%EV -7.34%E -1.13%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.14%EV -8.53%E -1.80%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-13 11:58 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.09%EV -4.26%E -2.96%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.87%EV -8.76%E -1.37%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.04%EV -3.71%E -0.743%K -0.928%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-11 04:54 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.06%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.23%EV -8.76%E -1.37%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.70%EV -15.27%E -3.47%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-07-16 17:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.84%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.52%EV -10.90%E -1.74%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.63%EV -15.27%E -3.47%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-07-22 09:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 65.02%EV -8.25%E -5.98%K -21.71%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.36%EV -10.90%E -1.74%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.63%EV -16.23%E -3.73%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-07-02 22:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 65.02%EV -8.25%E -5.98%K -21.71%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.36%EV -10.90%E -1.74%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.63%EV -16.23%E -3.73%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-07-02 22:19 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.03%EV -8.91%E -6.51%K -24.09%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -14.46%E -2.41%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.66%EV +0.139%E +0.027%K +0.033%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-07-11 05:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.57%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -14.46%E -2.41%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -7.56%E -1.58%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-07-11 05:24 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.44%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -14.46%E -2.41%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.29%EV -8.53%E -1.80%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-11 04:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.09%EV -9.58%E -7.04%K -26.61%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.98%EV -14.46%E -2.41%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.92%EV -8.53%E -1.80%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-07-05 11:35 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 66.48%EV -14.90%E -11.64%K -53.20%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.18%EV -14.46%E -2.41%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 19.34%EV -15.27%E -3.47%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 17.5% | 2026-07-16 08:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 66.72%EV -10.24%E -7.59%K -29.27%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.27%EV -15.89%E -2.69%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.01%EV -3.71%E -0.743%K -0.928%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-07-13 16:35 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 65.41%EV -10.91%E -8.14%K -32.08%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.11%EV -17.31%E -2.99%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.48%EV -13.34%E -2.96%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-07-11 04:54 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 64.44%EV -9.58%E -7.04%K -26.61%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 15.65%EV -20.17%E -3.60%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 19.92%EV -15.27%E -3.47%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-07-11 05:20 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (4)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.68% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.12% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.20% | 4.2% | 2026-07-14 05:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.68% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.12% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.20% | 4.2% | 2026-07-14 00:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.68% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.12% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.20% | 4.2% | 2026-07-14 05:19 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 64.87% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.24% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88% | 9.3% | 2026-07-14 09:19 |