Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Barcelona v Athletic Bilbao

Início: 2026-08-16 19:00 UTC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

49 casas de apostas (14 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Barcelona (Local)

Previsão 66.49%1.50odd justa
EV -3.59%
Vantagem -2.48%
Kelly -7.99%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.45

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
64.44%66.56%66.46%68.77%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.281.391.401.4578.13%71.71%71.43%68.97%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Athletic Bilbao (Visitante)

Previsão 14.26%7.01odd justa
EV +9.77%
Vantagem +1.27%
Kelly +1.46%
Crescimento +0.143%

pressupondo odds máximas de 7.70

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
12.76%14.26%14.31%15.65%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
5.606.656.507.7017.86%15.04%15.38%12.99%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 19.26%5.19odd justa
EV +2.06%
Vantagem +0.390%
Kelly +0.480%
Crescimento +0.010%

pressupondo odds máximas de 5.30

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
17.66%19.19%19.22%20.70%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.354.794.755.3022.99%20.87%21.05%18.87%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Barcelona (Local): 66.49%; Athletic Bilbao (Visitante): 14.26%; Empate: 19.26%. Para Athletic Bilbao (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 7.01. 2 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 7.70, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +9.77%.

Odds das casas de apostas (49 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
1xBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 67.83%EV -3.59%E -2.48%K -7.99%G +0.000%7.70I 12.99%NM 12.77%EV +9.77%E +1.27%K +1.46%G +0.143%5.07I 19.72%NM 19.40%EV -2.36%E -0.466%K -0.581%G +0.000%1.7%2026-07-14 09:19
Marathon Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.84%EV -4.92%E -3.44%K -11.45%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.76%EV +8.35%E +1.10%K +1.26%G +0.106%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.40%EV -3.71%E -0.743%K -0.928%G +0.000%3.1%2026-07-14 09:19
Bovada🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.56%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.62%EV -1.79%E -0.350%K -0.436%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-14 05:16
betfred_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -3.71%E -0.743%K -0.928%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-01 20:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -3.71%E -0.743%K -0.928%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-01 20:50
TAB🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.59%EV -5.59%E -3.94%K -13.31%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.91%EV -8.53%E -1.80%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-14 05:29
SportsBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.98%EV -7.58%E -5.46%K -19.45%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.50%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53%EV -1.79%E -0.350%K -0.436%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-06 07:05
Tipico (DE)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.77%EV -8.91%E -6.51%K -24.09%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.46%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.78%EV +2.06%E +0.390%K +0.480%G +0.010%6.1%2026-07-06 07:05
FanDuel🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.29%EV -8.91%E -6.51%K -24.09%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.34%EV -1.79%E -0.350%K -0.436%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-06 07:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -9.49%E -2.02%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-02 22:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -9.49%E -2.02%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-02 22:19
Svenska Spel🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -9.49%E -2.02%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-02 22:19
Bally Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -9.49%E -2.02%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-02 22:40
betPARX🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -9.49%E -2.02%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-02 22:45
Casumo🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -9.49%E -2.02%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-02 23:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -9.49%E -2.02%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-02 23:09
Grosvenor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -9.49%E -2.02%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-02 23:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -9.49%E -2.02%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-02 23:10
Unibet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -9.49%E -2.02%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-02 23:10
TABtouch🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -9.49%E -2.02%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-02 23:10
BetRivers🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -0.207%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -9.49%E -2.02%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-03 02:20
Betsson🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.00%EV -4.26%E -2.96%K -9.68%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.77%EV -1.63%E -0.237%K -0.277%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.22%EV -9.49%E -2.02%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-11 08:49
NordicBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.00%EV -4.26%E -2.96%K -9.68%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.77%EV -1.63%E -0.237%K -0.277%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.22%EV -9.49%E -2.02%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-11 08:50
Pinnacle🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.38%EV -7.58%E -5.46%K -19.45%G +0.000%6.82I 14.66%NM 13.73%EV -2.77%E -0.407%K -0.477%G +0.000%4.96I 20.16%NM 18.88%EV -4.48%E -0.904%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-10 10:45
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.25%EV -4.26%E -2.96%K -9.68%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.68%EV -7.34%E -1.13%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -3.71%E -0.743%K -0.928%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-06 16:55
BetMGM🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.40%EV -4.92%E -3.44%K -11.45%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.61%EV -7.34%E -1.13%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.99%EV -3.71%E -0.743%K -0.928%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-06 16:54
DraftKings🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.04%EV -5.59%E -3.94%K -13.31%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.43%EV -7.34%E -1.13%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -7.56%E -1.58%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-18 04:14
Sky Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -7.34%E -1.13%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -3.71%E -0.743%K -0.928%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-01 23:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -7.34%E -1.13%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -3.71%E -0.743%K -0.928%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-06 16:54
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -7.34%E -1.13%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -3.71%E -0.743%K -0.928%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-06 17:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -7.34%E -1.13%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -3.71%E -0.743%K -0.928%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-06 16:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.51%EV -9.58%E -7.04%K -26.61%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -7.34%E -1.13%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -3.71%E -0.743%K -0.928%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-09 08:39
Bet Victor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -7.34%E -1.13%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -13.34%E -2.96%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-17 15:25
betano_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -7.34%E -1.13%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -13.34%E -2.96%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-17 15:23
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.87%EV -9.58%E -7.04%K -26.61%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.99%EV -7.34%E -1.13%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.14%EV -8.53%E -1.80%K -2.27%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-01 20:50
Everygame🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.87%EV -9.58%E -7.04%K -26.61%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.99%EV -7.34%E -1.13%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.14%EV -8.53%E -1.80%K -2.27%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-13 11:58
Codere (IT)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.09%EV -4.26%E -2.96%K -9.68%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.87%EV -8.76%E -1.37%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.04%EV -3.71%E -0.743%K -0.928%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-11 04:54
PMU (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.06%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.23%EV -8.76%E -1.37%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.70%EV -15.27%E -3.47%K -4.49%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-16 17:30
PlayUp🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.84%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.52%EV -10.90%E -1.74%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.63%EV -15.27%E -3.47%K -4.49%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-22 09:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.02%EV -8.25%E -5.98%K -21.71%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.36%EV -10.90%E -1.74%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.63%EV -16.23%E -3.73%K -4.84%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-02 22:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.02%EV -8.25%E -5.98%K -21.71%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.36%EV -10.90%E -1.74%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.63%EV -16.23%E -3.73%K -4.84%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-02 22:19
Winamax (DE)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.03%EV -8.91%E -6.51%K -24.09%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -14.46%E -2.41%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.66%EV +0.139%E +0.027%K +0.033%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-11 05:00
LeoVegas🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.57%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -14.46%E -2.41%K -2.89%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -7.56%E -1.58%K -1.99%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-11 05:24
Unibet (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.44%EV -6.92%E -4.94%K -17.30%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -14.46%E -2.41%K -2.89%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.29%EV -8.53%E -1.80%K -2.27%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-11 04:59
BoyleSports🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.09%EV -9.58%E -7.04%K -26.61%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.98%EV -14.46%E -2.41%K -2.89%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.92%EV -8.53%E -1.80%K -2.27%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-05 11:35
NetBet (FR)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 66.48%EV -14.90%E -11.64%K -53.20%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.18%EV -14.46%E -2.41%K -2.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.34%EV -15.27%E -3.47%K -4.49%G +0.000%17.5%2026-07-16 08:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.72%EV -10.24%E -7.59%K -29.27%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.27%EV -15.89%E -2.69%K -3.24%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.01%EV -3.71%E -0.743%K -0.928%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-13 16:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 65.41%EV -10.91%E -8.14%K -32.08%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.11%EV -17.31%E -2.99%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.48%EV -13.34%E -2.96%K -3.81%G +0.000%14.1%2026-07-11 04:54
Betclic (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.44%EV -9.58%E -7.04%K -26.61%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.65%EV -20.17%E -3.60%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.92%EV -15.27%E -3.47%K -4.49%G +0.000%14.1%2026-07-11 05:20
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (4)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 66.68%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.12%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.20%4.2%2026-07-14 05:19
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 66.68%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.12%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.20%4.2%2026-07-14 00:19
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.44I 69.44%NM 66.68%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.12%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.20%4.2%2026-07-14 05:19
Smarkets1.41I 70.92%NM 64.87%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.24%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%9.3%2026-07-14 09:19