Language:English
Nacional v Vitória SC
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Nacional (Local)
Prediction 44.95%2.22fair odd
EV -1.57%
Edge -0.717%
Kelly -1.32%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.19
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.62%45.07%44.89%46.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.052.042.1952.36%48.85%49.02%45.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Vitória SC (Visit)
Prediction 27.44%3.64fair odd
EV +1.54%
Edge +0.415%
Kelly +0.569%
Growth +0.009%
assuming max odds 3.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.07%27.29%27.50%28.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.403.363.7031.25%29.45%29.76%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.61%3.62fair odd
EV -3.08%
Edge -0.878%
Kelly -1.23%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.51
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.62%27.64%27.60%28.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.383.403.5133.33%29.61%29.41%28.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nacional (Local): 44.95%; Vitória SC (Visit): 27.44%; Draw: 27.61%. For Vitória SC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.64. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.54%.
Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.59%EV -10.11%E -5.05%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV +1.54%E +0.415%K +0.569%G +0.009% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -8.88%E -2.69%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -10.11%E -5.05%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.07%EV +1.54%E +0.415%K +0.569%G +0.009% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -10.26%E -3.16%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -10.11%E -5.05%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.07%EV +1.54%E +0.415%K +0.569%G +0.009% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -10.26%E -3.16%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.10%EV -10.11%E -5.05%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.26%EV +0.165%E +0.045%K +0.062%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 28.64%EV -11.09%E -3.44%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-16 16:34 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 46.06%EV -6.06%E -2.90%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 3.63I 27.55%NM 26.52%EV -0.384%E -0.106%K -0.146%G +0.000% | 3.51I 28.49%NM 27.42%EV -3.08%E -0.878%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-16 16:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -10.11%E -5.05%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -1.21%E -0.335%K -0.464%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-16 16:29 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.33%EV -9.21%E -4.56%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 3.59I 27.86%NM 26.07%EV -1.48%E -0.413%K -0.572%G +0.000% | 3.39I 29.50%NM 27.61%EV -6.40%E -1.89%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-16 16:25 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.19I 45.66%NM 44.23%EV -1.57%E -0.717%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.28%EV -2.58%E -0.727%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.49%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-16 16:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 44.98%EV -5.16%E -2.45%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -3.95%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.91%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-16 16:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 44.98%EV -5.16%E -2.45%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -3.95%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.91%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-16 16:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -5.61%E -2.67%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -3.95%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-16 16:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -10.11%E -5.05%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -3.95%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -3.36%E -0.959%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-16 16:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.15%EV -6.51%E -3.13%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.22%EV -5.32%E -1.54%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.62%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-16 16:52 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -7.86%E -3.83%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -5.32%E -1.54%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-16 16:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.86%EV -4.72%E -2.22%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.17%EV -3.36%E -0.959%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-16 16:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.61%E -2.67%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-16 16:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.57%EV -7.41%E -3.60%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -3.36%E -0.959%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-16 16:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.57%EV -7.41%E -3.60%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -3.36%E -0.959%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-16 16:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.81%EV -8.31%E -4.07%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -3.36%E -0.959%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-16 16:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.81%EV -8.31%E -4.07%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -3.36%E -0.959%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-16 16:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.81%EV -8.31%E -4.07%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -3.36%E -0.959%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-16 16:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.81%EV -8.31%E -4.07%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -3.36%E -0.959%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-16 16:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.81%EV -8.31%E -4.07%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -3.36%E -0.959%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-16 16:35 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.81%EV -8.31%E -4.07%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -3.36%E -0.959%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-16 16:35 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.63%EV -11.01%E -5.56%K -11.23%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.57%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.80%EV -10.26%E -3.16%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-16 16:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.01%EV -12.36%E -6.34%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%EV -10.26%E -3.16%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-16 16:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.41%EV -5.61%E -2.67%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 3.36I 29.76%NM 27.75%EV -7.79%E -2.32%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.84%EV -7.50%E -2.24%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-16 16:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 44.02%EV -4.27%E -2.00%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -8.07%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -7.50%E -2.24%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-16 16:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.69%EV -9.21%E -4.56%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.55%EV -8.07%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -4.74%E -1.37%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-16 16:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.69%EV -9.21%E -4.56%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.55%EV -8.07%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -4.74%E -1.37%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-16 16:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.69%EV -9.21%E -4.56%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.55%EV -8.07%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -4.74%E -1.37%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-16 16:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.69%EV -9.21%E -4.56%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.55%EV -8.07%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -4.74%E -1.37%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-16 16:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.69%EV -9.21%E -4.56%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.55%EV -8.07%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -4.74%E -1.37%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-16 16:35 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 45.32%EV -10.56%E -5.31%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.92%EV -8.07%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.75%EV -10.26%E -3.16%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-16 16:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -5.61%E -2.67%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -3.36%E -0.959%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-16 16:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -5.61%E -2.67%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-16 16:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.14%EV -7.86%E -3.83%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.82%EV -4.74%E -1.37%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-16 16:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -5.61%E -2.67%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -8.88%E -2.69%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-16 16:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -5.61%E -2.67%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -8.88%E -2.69%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-16 16:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -5.61%E -2.67%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -11.64%E -3.64%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-16 16:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -5.61%E -2.67%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -11.64%E -3.64%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-16 16:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -5.61%E -2.67%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -11.64%E -3.64%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-16 16:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -10.11%E -5.05%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-16 16:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.82%EV -11.01%E -5.56%K -11.23%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-16 16:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 45.95%EV -11.46%E -5.82%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.62%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-05-16 16:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -10.11%E -5.05%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -8.88%E -2.69%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-16 16:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 45.14%EV -14.15%E -7.41%K -15.55%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.13%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.74%EV -17.16%E -5.72%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 16.0% | 2026-05-16 16:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.76%EV -4.72%E -2.22%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.55%EV -10.81%E -3.33%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.69%EV -7.50%E -2.24%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-16 16:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.76%EV -4.72%E -2.22%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.55%EV -10.81%E -3.33%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.69%EV -7.50%E -2.24%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-16 16:55 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -7.86%E -3.83%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -10.81%E -3.33%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-16 16:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -7.86%E -3.83%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -10.81%E -3.33%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -8.88%E -2.69%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-16 16:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 45.70%EV -11.91%E -6.07%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.56%EV -10.81%E -3.33%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.74%EV -7.50%E -2.24%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-05-16 16:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -10.11%E -5.05%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -12.18%E -3.81%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.87%EV -7.50%E -2.24%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-16 16:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.16% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99% | 0.7% | 2026-05-16 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.16% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99% | 0.7% | 2026-05-16 16:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.16% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99% | 0.7% | 2026-05-16 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.39% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.74% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.87% | 1.1% | 2026-05-16 16:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.17I 46.08%NM 45.57% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.70% | 1.1% | 2026-05-16 16:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.04% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.90% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.06% | 1.8% | 2026-05-16 16:55 |