The School of Odds
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Korona Kielce v Legia Warszawa

2026-08-08 18:15 UTC — Ekstraklasa - Poland

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Korona Kielce (Local)

Prediction 33.25%3.01fair odd
EV -5.22%
Edge -1.83%
Kelly -2.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.75%33.32%33.26%34.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.732.752.8539.22%36.61%36.36%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Legia Warszawa (Visit)

Prediction 37.13%2.69fair odd
EV -4.95%
Edge -1.93%
Kelly -3.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.68%37.24%37.07%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.442.502.5643.48%40.97%40.00%39.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.62%3.38fair odd
EV +0.697%
Edge +0.205%
Kelly +0.290%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.73%29.44%29.67%30.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.123.103.4033.90%32.08%32.26%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Korona Kielce (Local): 33.25%; Legia Warszawa (Visit): 37.13%; Draw: 29.62%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.38. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.40, producing a positive expected value of +0.697%.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Coolbet2.80I 35.71%NM 33.97%EV -6.89%E -2.46%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.05%EV -7.18%E -2.87%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV +0.697%E +0.205%K +0.290%G +0.002%5.1%2026-08-02 13:29
FanDuel2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -8.55%E -3.11%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -9.03%E -3.69%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -2.27%E -0.686%K -0.985%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-02 13:33
betfred_uk2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -8.55%E -3.11%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -10.89%E -4.54%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -2.27%E -0.686%K -0.985%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-02 13:35
SportsBet2.70I 37.04%NM 33.98%EV -10.21%E -3.78%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -10.89%E -4.54%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.80%EV -2.27%E -0.686%K -0.985%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-02 13:29
Paddy Power2.62I 38.17%NM 34.40%EV -12.87%E -4.91%K -7.95%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.87%EV -11.63%E -4.89%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.73%EV -3.75%E -1.15%K -1.66%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-02 13:35
Pinnacle2.85I 35.09%NM 33.29%EV -5.22%E -1.83%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.06%EV -4.95%E -1.93%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.65%EV -5.23%E -1.63%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 14:20
Marathon Bet2.79I 35.84%NM 33.22%EV -7.22%E -2.59%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.07%EV -7.18%E -2.87%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.71%EV -7.60%E -2.43%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-02 13:19
1xBet2.79I 35.84%NM 33.22%EV -7.22%E -2.59%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.07%EV -7.18%E -2.87%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.71%EV -7.60%E -2.43%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-02 13:50
NordicBet2.78I 35.97%NM 33.33%EV -7.55%E -2.72%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.77%EV -6.44%E -2.55%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.89%EV -8.19%E -2.64%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-02 14:20
Betsson2.78I 35.97%NM 33.33%EV -7.55%E -2.72%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.77%EV -6.44%E -2.55%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.89%EV -8.19%E -2.64%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-02 14:19
DraftKings2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -6.89%E -2.46%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -7.18%E -2.87%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -8.19%E -2.64%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-02 16:29
Unibet (UK)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -8.55%E -3.11%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -7.18%E -2.87%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -8.19%E -2.64%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-02 14:20
Fanatics2.75I 36.36%NM 33.23%EV -8.55%E -3.11%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.30%EV -9.03%E -3.69%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -8.19%E -2.64%K -3.90%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-02 13:40
Winamax (DE)2.60I 38.46%NM 33.80%EV -13.54%E -5.21%K -8.46%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.39%EV -12.75%E -5.42%K -9.44%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.81%EV -9.67%E -3.17%K -4.72%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-02 14:20
888sport2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -6.89%E -2.46%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -7.18%E -2.87%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -11.15%E -3.72%K -5.58%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-02 14:15
888sport (SE)2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -6.89%E -2.46%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -7.18%E -2.87%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -11.15%E -3.72%K -5.58%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-02 14:14
Mr Green (SE)2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -6.89%E -2.46%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -7.18%E -2.87%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -11.15%E -3.72%K -5.58%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-02 14:14
Sky Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 33.37%EV -13.54%E -5.21%K -8.46%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.72%EV -14.60%E -6.35%K -11.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.92%EV -11.15%E -3.72%K -5.58%G +0.000%15.3%2026-08-02 13:35
Winamax (FR)2.55I 39.22%NM 33.80%EV -15.20%E -5.96%K -9.81%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.47%EV -14.60%E -6.35%K -11.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.73%EV -11.15%E -3.72%K -5.58%G +0.000%16.0%2026-08-02 14:20
Betclic (FR)2.65I 37.74%NM 33.04%EV -11.87%E -4.48%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 37.58%EV -13.49%E -5.79%K -10.14%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 29.38%EV -11.74%E -3.94%K -5.93%G +0.000%14.2%2026-08-02 14:18
Unibet (FR)2.65I 37.74%NM 32.78%EV -11.87%E -4.48%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.77%EV -14.60%E -6.35%K -11.23%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.45%EV -12.63%E -4.28%K -6.48%G +0.000%15.1%2026-08-02 18:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets2.64I 37.88%NM 33.49%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.84%2.98I 33.56%NM 29.67%13.1%2026-08-02 14:20