Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Korona Kielce v Legia Warszawa

Início: 2026-08-08 18:15 UTC

Final: Korona Kielce 1–1 Legia Warszawa

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

52 casas de apostas (20 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Korona Kielce (Local)

Previsão 30.69%3.26odd justa
EV -0.555%
Vantagem -0.171%
Kelly -0.248%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.24

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
29.31%30.80%30.67%33.79%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.632.922.953.2438.02%34.20%33.90%30.86%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Legia Warszawa (Visitante)

Previsão 40.23%2.49odd justa
EV +0.567%
Vantagem +0.227%
Kelly +0.378%
Crescimento +0.002%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.50

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
37.17%40.12%40.26%41.83%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.152.342.302.5046.51%42.82%43.48%40.00%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 29.08%3.44odd justa
EV -4.04%
Vantagem -1.22%
Kelly -1.75%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.30

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
27.84%29.09%29.07%30.98%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.903.143.163.3034.48%31.85%31.70%30.30%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Korona Kielce (Local): 30.69%; Legia Warszawa (Visitante): 40.23%; Empate: 29.08%. Para Legia Warszawa (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 2.49. 8 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 2.50, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +0.567%.

Odds das casas de apostas (52 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Unibet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -14.06%E -5.02%K -7.81%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV +0.567%E +0.227%K +0.378%G +0.002%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -6.94%E -2.17%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 18:04
Unibet (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -14.06%E -5.02%K -7.81%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV +0.567%E +0.227%K +0.378%G +0.002%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -6.94%E -2.17%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 18:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -14.06%E -5.02%K -7.81%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV +0.567%E +0.227%K +0.378%G +0.002%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -6.94%E -2.17%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 18:04
ATG (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -14.06%E -5.02%K -7.81%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV +0.567%E +0.227%K +0.378%G +0.002%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -6.94%E -2.17%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 18:04
Casumo🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -15.59%E -5.67%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV +0.567%E +0.227%K +0.378%G +0.002%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -6.94%E -2.17%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-08 18:05
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -15.59%E -5.67%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV +0.567%E +0.227%K +0.378%G +0.002%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -6.94%E -2.17%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-08 18:04
Svenska Spel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -15.59%E -5.67%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV +0.567%E +0.227%K +0.378%G +0.002%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -6.94%E -2.17%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-08 18:05
betPARX🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -15.59%E -5.67%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV +0.567%E +0.227%K +0.378%G +0.002%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -6.94%E -2.17%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-08 18:05
BetRivers🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.29%EV -14.06%E -5.02%K -7.81%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.58%EV -0.237%E -0.096%K -0.160%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -6.94%E -2.17%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 17:59
TABtouch🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -15.59%E -5.67%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.19%EV -0.237%E -0.096%K -0.160%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.28%EV -8.40%E -2.67%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-08 18:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -17.13%E -6.34%K -10.08%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.26%EV -2.25%E -0.925%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -9.85%E -3.18%K -4.69%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-08 18:04
LiveScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -17.13%E -6.34%K -10.08%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.26%EV -2.25%E -0.925%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -9.85%E -3.18%K -4.69%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-08 18:04
Virgin Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -17.13%E -6.34%K -10.08%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.26%EV -2.25%E -0.925%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -9.85%E -3.18%K -4.69%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-08 18:05
Pinnacle🎯3.09I 32.36%NM 31.12%EV -5.16%E -1.67%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.74%EV -2.65%E -1.10%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.14%EV -4.04%E -1.22%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-08 18:00
Coolbet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.65%EV -7.92%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.57%EV -3.46%E -1.44%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.78%EV -4.04%E -1.22%K -1.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-08 17:39
DraftKings🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -7.92%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -3.46%E -1.44%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.09%EV -5.49%E -1.69%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-08 17:59
FanDuel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -4.85%E -1.57%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -3.46%E -1.44%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -9.85%E -3.18%K -4.69%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-08 17:58
BetMGM🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -7.92%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -5.47%E -2.33%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -6.94%E -2.17%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-08 17:14
Bovada🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -7.92%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.35%EV -5.47%E -2.33%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -9.85%E -3.18%K -4.69%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-08 18:09
PMU (FR)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.38%EV -19.28%E -7.33%K -11.83%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.36%EV -5.47%E -2.33%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.26%EV -12.76%E -4.25%K -6.38%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-08 18:04
LowVig.ag🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.36%EV -4.85%E -1.57%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.22%EV -5.87%E -2.51%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -6.94%E -2.17%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-08 18:10
BetOnline.ag🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.36%EV -4.85%E -1.57%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.22%EV -5.87%E -2.51%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -6.94%E -2.17%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-08 18:10
Marathon Bet🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 31.09%EV -8.54%E -2.86%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 39.59%EV -5.87%E -2.51%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 29.32%EV -8.11%E -2.57%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 18:05
BetUS🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -9.46%E -3.21%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.53%EV -6.27%E -2.69%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -8.40%E -2.67%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-08 18:04
Unibet (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -4.85%E -1.57%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -7.48%E -3.25%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -5.49%E -1.69%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 17:35
Fanatics🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -7.92%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -7.48%E -3.25%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -6.94%E -2.17%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-08 17:14
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -7.92%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -7.48%E -3.25%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -6.94%E -2.17%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-08 18:04
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -11.60%E -4.03%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.72%EV -7.48%E -3.25%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -6.94%E -2.17%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-08 17:39
SportsBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.92%EV -6.39%E -2.09%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.67%EV -7.48%E -3.25%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -12.76%E -4.25%K -6.38%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-08 17:59
888sport🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -7.92%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -7.48%E -3.25%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -12.76%E -4.25%K -6.38%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-08 18:10
888sport (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -7.92%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -7.48%E -3.25%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -12.76%E -4.25%K -6.38%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-08 18:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -7.92%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -7.48%E -3.25%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -12.76%E -4.25%K -6.38%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-08 18:10
Betr (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -12.53%E -4.39%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.41%EV -7.48%E -3.25%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -8.40%E -2.67%K -3.91%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-08 17:40
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -7.92%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -7.48%E -3.25%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -15.67%E -5.40%K -8.25%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-08 17:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -7.92%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -7.48%E -3.25%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -15.67%E -5.40%K -8.25%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-08 18:04
Sky Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -10.99%E -3.79%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.67%EV -7.48%E -3.25%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -15.67%E -5.40%K -8.25%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-08 18:00
NordicBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -6.39%E -2.09%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.65%EV -8.28%E -3.63%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.96%EV -6.94%E -2.17%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 17:34
Betsson🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -6.39%E -2.09%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.65%EV -8.28%E -3.63%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.96%EV -6.94%E -2.17%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 17:34
PlayUp🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.18%EV -10.99%E -3.79%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.66%EV -8.28%E -3.63%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.17%EV -9.85%E -3.18%K -4.69%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-08 17:10
1xBet🎯3.24I 30.86%NM 29.31%EV -0.555%E -0.171%K -0.248%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.83%EV -8.68%E -3.83%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 28.86%EV -4.33%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-08 18:04
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -4.85%E -1.57%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -9.49%E -4.22%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -9.85%E -3.18%K -4.69%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-08 17:49
Codere (IT)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -7.92%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -9.49%E -4.22%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -6.94%E -2.17%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-08 17:34
Bet Victor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -7.92%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.47%EV -9.49%E -4.22%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.18%EV -9.27%E -2.97%K -4.37%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-08 17:59
betano_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -7.92%E -2.64%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.47%EV -9.49%E -4.22%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.18%EV -9.27%E -2.97%K -4.37%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-08 18:05
Coral🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -11.91%E -4.15%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.84%EV -9.49%E -4.22%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -9.85%E -3.18%K -4.69%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-08 17:15
Bet Right🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -14.06%E -5.02%K -7.81%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.72%EV -9.49%E -4.22%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.37%EV -8.40%E -2.67%K -3.91%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-08 18:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.78%EV -9.46%E -3.21%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.28%EV -11.50%E -5.23%K -9.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -5.49%E -1.69%K -2.44%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-08 17:35
NetBet (FR)🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 30.87%EV -13.45%E -4.77%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 40.11%EV -12.71%E -5.86%K -10.86%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.02%EV -12.76%E -4.25%K -6.38%G +0.000%14.9%2026-08-08 17:59
Winamax (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -10.99%E -3.79%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.44%EV -13.51%E -6.28%K -11.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.84%EV -6.94%E -2.17%K -3.16%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-08 17:34
Unibet (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.09%EV -9.46%E -3.21%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.28%EV -13.51%E -6.28%K -11.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.63%EV -9.85%E -3.18%K -4.69%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-08 17:34
Betclic (FR)🎯2.93I 34.13%NM 30.23%EV -10.07%E -3.44%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.20%EV -13.51%E -6.28%K -11.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.57%EV -9.85%E -3.18%K -4.69%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-08 17:48
BoyleSports🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.45%EV -10.99%E -3.79%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.07%EV -13.51%E -6.28%K -11.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -9.85%E -3.18%K -4.69%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-08 17:22
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.59%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.83%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.59%0.6%2026-08-08 18:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.59%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.83%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.59%0.6%2026-08-08 18:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.59%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.83%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.59%0.6%2026-08-08 18:10
Matchbook◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.59%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.83%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.59%0.6%2026-08-08 18:05
Smarkets◎3.20I 31.25%NM 30.73%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.02%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.25%1.7%2026-08-08 18:05
Kalshi◎3.23I 30.96%NM 30.38%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.25%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.38%1.9%2026-08-08 18:10