Language:English
Toluca v Guadalajara
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Toluca (Local)
Prediction 45.25%2.21fair odd
EV -1.81%
Edge -0.835%
Kelly -1.55%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.17
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.49%45.18%45.39%46.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.882.052.052.1753.19%48.77%48.78%46.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Guadalajara (Visit)
Prediction 26.76%3.74fair odd
EV +0.090%
Edge +0.024%
Kelly +0.033%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.74
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.66%26.75%26.72%27.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.453.453.7432.26%29.02%28.99%26.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.99%3.57fair odd
EV -3.43%
Edge -0.995%
Kelly -1.40%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.04%28.07%27.89%30.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.183.203.4534.72%31.41%31.25%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toluca (Local): 45.25%; Guadalajara (Visit): 26.76%; Draw: 27.99%. For Guadalajara (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.737. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.740, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.090%.
Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.36%EV -6.34%E -3.06%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.66%EV +0.090%E +0.024%K +0.033%G +0.000% | 3.43I 29.15%NM 27.98%EV -3.99%E -1.16%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-02-28 22:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.01%EV -4.98%E -2.37%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 25.98%EV -0.445%E -0.120%K -0.164%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.01%EV -3.43%E -0.995%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-02-28 23:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.01%EV -4.98%E -2.37%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 25.98%EV -0.445%E -0.120%K -0.164%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.01%EV -3.43%E -0.995%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-02-28 23:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.60%EV -4.08%E -1.92%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.13%EV -0.980%E -0.265%K -0.363%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 28.27%EV -4.27%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-02-28 22:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.79%EV -1.81%E -0.835%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.04%EV -2.32%E -0.635%K -0.875%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.17%EV -11.83%E -3.76%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-28 23:03 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.79%EV -1.81%E -0.835%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.04%EV -2.32%E -0.635%K -0.875%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.17%EV -11.83%E -3.76%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-28 23:03 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.40%EV -8.60%E -4.26%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -3.66%E -1.02%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -4.83%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.15%EV -5.43%E -2.60%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.56I 28.09%NM 26.51%EV -4.73%E -1.33%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 28.34%EV -6.79%E -2.04%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-28 22:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.84%EV -4.08%E -1.92%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -4.99%E -1.41%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -13.23%E -4.27%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.84%EV -4.08%E -1.92%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -4.99%E -1.41%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -13.23%E -4.27%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.84%EV -4.08%E -1.92%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -4.99%E -1.41%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -13.23%E -4.27%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.84%EV -4.08%E -1.92%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -4.99%E -1.41%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -13.23%E -4.27%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.84%EV -4.08%E -1.92%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -4.99%E -1.41%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -13.23%E -4.27%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-02-28 23:03 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.84%EV -4.08%E -1.92%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -4.99%E -1.41%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -13.23%E -4.27%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.01%EV -6.79%E -3.30%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 26.19%EV -5.26%E -1.49%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 28.80%EV -9.87%E -3.07%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-02-28 22:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -7.24%E -3.53%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -6.33%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -4.83%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-02-28 23:03 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -7.24%E -3.53%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -6.33%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -4.83%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-02-28 23:02 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.24%EV -7.69%E -3.77%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.37%EV -6.33%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -9.03%E -2.78%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-02-28 22:57 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.24%EV -7.69%E -3.77%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.37%EV -6.33%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -9.03%E -2.78%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-02-28 22:58 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.70%EV -4.98%E -2.37%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -6.33%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -14.63%E -4.80%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-02-28 23:03 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.71%EV -5.88%E -2.83%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.98%EV -6.33%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -16.03%E -5.34%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-02-28 23:03 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.71%EV -5.88%E -2.83%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.98%EV -6.33%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -16.03%E -5.34%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-02-28 23:03 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.39%EV -5.88%E -2.83%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.76%EV -7.67%E -2.22%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.85%EV -10.43%E -3.26%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.39%EV -5.88%E -2.83%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.76%EV -7.67%E -2.22%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.85%EV -10.43%E -3.26%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-02-28 23:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.75%EV -9.50%E -4.75%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.52%EV -7.67%E -2.22%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -7.63%E -2.31%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-02-28 22:59 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 43.79%EV -6.79%E -3.30%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.15%EV -7.67%E -2.22%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.07%EV -16.03%E -5.34%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-02-28 23:03 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -7.24%E -3.53%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -9.01%E -2.65%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -3.43%E -0.995%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -4.98%E -2.37%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -9.01%E -2.65%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -10.43%E -3.26%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -7.24%E -3.53%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -9.01%E -2.65%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -7.63%E -2.31%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -7.24%E -3.53%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -9.01%E -2.65%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -7.63%E -2.31%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -7.24%E -3.53%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -9.01%E -2.65%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -10.43%E -3.26%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-02-28 22:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.64%EV -10.41%E -5.26%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -10.35%E -3.09%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -7.63%E -2.31%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 43.49%EV -8.60%E -4.26%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.22%EV -10.35%E -3.09%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.29%EV -18.83%E -6.49%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-02-28 23:03 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.02%EV -9.50%E -4.75%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.28%EV -11.69%E -3.54%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.70%EV -9.03%E -2.78%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-02-28 23:03 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.00%EV -9.50%E -4.75%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -11.69%E -3.54%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.33%EV -16.03%E -5.34%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-02-28 22:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.00%EV -9.50%E -4.75%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -11.69%E -3.54%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.33%EV -16.03%E -5.34%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-02-28 23:03 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.00%EV -9.50%E -4.75%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -11.69%E -3.54%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.33%EV -16.03%E -5.34%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-02-28 22:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.00%EV -9.50%E -4.75%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -11.69%E -3.54%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.33%EV -16.03%E -5.34%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-02-28 22:59 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 45.27%EV -14.03%E -7.38%K -15.59%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.06%EV -11.69%E -3.54%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.67%EV -16.03%E -5.34%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 16.3% | 2026-02-28 22:58 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -7.24%E -3.53%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -13.02%E -4.01%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -13.23%E -4.27%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-02-28 23:03 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -7.24%E -3.53%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -13.02%E -4.01%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -13.23%E -4.27%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-02-28 23:03 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.64%EV -9.50%E -4.75%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.47%EV -13.02%E -4.01%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.90%EV -10.43%E -3.26%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-02-28 23:03 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.64%EV -9.50%E -4.75%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.47%EV -13.02%E -4.01%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.90%EV -10.43%E -3.26%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-02-28 23:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.45%EV -11.77%E -6.03%K -12.39%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.27%EV -13.02%E -4.01%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.27%EV -9.03%E -2.78%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 45.78%EV -14.93%E -7.94%K -16.97%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.90%EV -14.36%E -4.49%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.32%EV -11.83%E -3.76%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 16.2% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 43.87%EV -13.58%E -7.11%K -14.92%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.03%EV -17.04%E -5.50%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.10%EV -19.39%E -6.73%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 19.3% | 2026-02-28 23:03 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.63% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.00% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.38% | 1.5% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.02% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.62% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.36% | 1.5% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.86% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.89% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.26% | 1.9% | 2026-02-28 23:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.50% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.68% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.82% | 2.7% | 2026-02-28 23:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.87% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.87% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.26% | 4.8% | 2026-02-28 23:02 |