La escuela de los momiosEspañol
Toluca v Guadalajara
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Toluca (Local)
Predicción 45.25%2.21momio equitativo
EV -1.81%
Ventaja -0.835%
Kelly -1.55%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.17
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
43.49%45.18%45.39%46.40%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.882.052.052.1753.19%48.77%48.78%46.08%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Guadalajara (Visitante)
Predicción 26.76%3.74momio equitativo
EV +0.090%
Ventaja +0.024%
Kelly +0.033%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.74
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.66%26.75%26.72%27.52%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.453.453.7432.26%29.02%28.99%26.74%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 27.99%3.57momio equitativo
EV -3.43%
Ventaja -0.995%
Kelly -1.40%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.45
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.04%28.07%27.89%30.31%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.183.203.4534.72%31.41%31.25%28.99%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (46 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.36%EV -6.34%E -3.06%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.66%EV +0.090%E +0.024%K +0.033%G +0.000% | 3.43I 29.15%NM 27.98%EV -3.99%E -1.16%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-02-28 22:59 |
| LowVig.ag | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.01%EV -4.98%E -2.37%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 25.98%EV -0.445%E -0.120%K -0.164%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.01%EV -3.43%E -0.995%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-02-28 23:00 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.01%EV -4.98%E -2.37%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 25.98%EV -0.445%E -0.120%K -0.164%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.01%EV -3.43%E -0.995%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-02-28 23:00 |
| Pinnacle | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.60%EV -4.08%E -1.92%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.13%EV -0.980%E -0.265%K -0.363%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 28.27%EV -4.27%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-02-28 22:59 |
| ATG (SE) | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.79%EV -1.81%E -0.835%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.04%EV -2.32%E -0.635%K -0.875%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.17%EV -11.83%E -3.76%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-28 23:03 |
| Svenska Spel | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.79%EV -1.81%E -0.835%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.04%EV -2.32%E -0.635%K -0.875%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.17%EV -11.83%E -3.76%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-28 23:03 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.40%EV -8.60%E -4.26%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -3.66%E -1.02%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -4.83%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| GTbets | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.15%EV -5.43%E -2.60%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.56I 28.09%NM 26.51%EV -4.73%E -1.33%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 28.34%EV -6.79%E -2.04%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-28 22:59 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.84%EV -4.08%E -1.92%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -4.99%E -1.41%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -13.23%E -4.27%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| Casumo | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.84%EV -4.08%E -1.92%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -4.99%E -1.41%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -13.23%E -4.27%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.84%EV -4.08%E -1.92%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -4.99%E -1.41%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -13.23%E -4.27%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| Grosvenor | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.84%EV -4.08%E -1.92%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -4.99%E -1.41%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -13.23%E -4.27%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| Unibet | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.84%EV -4.08%E -1.92%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -4.99%E -1.41%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -13.23%E -4.27%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-02-28 23:03 |
| betPARX | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.84%EV -4.08%E -1.92%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -4.99%E -1.41%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -13.23%E -4.27%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.01%EV -6.79%E -3.30%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 26.19%EV -5.26%E -1.49%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 28.80%EV -9.87%E -3.07%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-02-28 22:59 |
| FanDuel | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -7.24%E -3.53%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -6.33%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -4.83%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-02-28 23:03 |
| Bet Victor | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -7.24%E -3.53%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -6.33%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -4.83%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-02-28 23:02 |
| Bovada | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.24%EV -7.69%E -3.77%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.37%EV -6.33%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -9.03%E -2.78%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-02-28 22:57 |
| BetUS | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.24%EV -7.69%E -3.77%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.37%EV -6.33%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -9.03%E -2.78%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-02-28 22:58 |
| TABtouch | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.70%EV -4.98%E -2.37%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -6.33%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -14.63%E -4.80%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-02-28 23:03 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.71%EV -5.88%E -2.83%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.98%EV -6.33%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -16.03%E -5.34%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-02-28 23:03 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.71%EV -5.88%E -2.83%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.98%EV -6.33%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -16.03%E -5.34%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-02-28 23:03 |
| NordicBet | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.39%EV -5.88%E -2.83%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.76%EV -7.67%E -2.22%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.85%EV -10.43%E -3.26%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| Betsson | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.39%EV -5.88%E -2.83%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.76%EV -7.67%E -2.22%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.85%EV -10.43%E -3.26%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-02-28 23:05 |
| Bet Right | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.75%EV -9.50%E -4.75%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.52%EV -7.67%E -2.22%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -7.63%E -2.31%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-02-28 22:59 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.06I 48.54%NM 43.79%EV -6.79%E -3.30%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.15%EV -7.67%E -2.22%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.07%EV -16.03%E -5.34%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-02-28 23:03 |
| DraftKings | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -7.24%E -3.53%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -9.01%E -2.65%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -3.43%E -0.995%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| Fanatics | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -4.98%E -2.37%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -9.01%E -2.65%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -10.43%E -3.26%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| SportsBet | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -7.24%E -3.53%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -9.01%E -2.65%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -7.63%E -2.31%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| Betway | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -7.24%E -3.53%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -9.01%E -2.65%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -7.63%E -2.31%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| Everygame | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -7.24%E -3.53%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -9.01%E -2.65%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -10.43%E -3.26%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-02-28 22:59 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.64%EV -10.41%E -5.26%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -10.35%E -3.09%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -7.63%E -2.31%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| LeoVegas | 2.02I 49.50%NM 43.49%EV -8.60%E -4.26%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.22%EV -10.35%E -3.09%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.29%EV -18.83%E -6.49%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-02-28 23:03 |
| Paddy Power | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.02%EV -9.50%E -4.75%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.28%EV -11.69%E -3.54%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.70%EV -9.03%E -2.78%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-02-28 23:03 |
| 888sport | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.00%EV -9.50%E -4.75%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -11.69%E -3.54%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.33%EV -16.03%E -5.34%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-02-28 22:59 |
| William Hill | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.00%EV -9.50%E -4.75%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -11.69%E -3.54%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.33%EV -16.03%E -5.34%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-02-28 23:03 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.00%EV -9.50%E -4.75%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -11.69%E -3.54%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.33%EV -16.03%E -5.34%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-02-28 22:59 |
| 888sport (SE) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.00%EV -9.50%E -4.75%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -11.69%E -3.54%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.33%EV -16.03%E -5.34%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-02-28 22:59 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.90I 52.63%NM 45.27%EV -14.03%E -7.38%K -15.59%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.06%EV -11.69%E -3.54%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.67%EV -16.03%E -5.34%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 16.3% | 2026-02-28 22:58 |
| Coral | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -7.24%E -3.53%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -13.02%E -4.01%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -13.23%E -4.27%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-02-28 23:03 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -7.24%E -3.53%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -13.02%E -4.01%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -13.23%E -4.27%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-02-28 23:03 |
| Sky Bet | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.64%EV -9.50%E -4.75%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.47%EV -13.02%E -4.01%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.90%EV -10.43%E -3.26%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-02-28 23:03 |
| BoyleSports | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.64%EV -9.50%E -4.75%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.47%EV -13.02%E -4.01%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.90%EV -10.43%E -3.26%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-02-28 23:05 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.45%EV -11.77%E -6.03%K -12.39%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.27%EV -13.02%E -4.01%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.27%EV -9.03%E -2.78%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.88I 53.19%NM 45.78%EV -14.93%E -7.94%K -16.97%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.90%EV -14.36%E -4.49%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.32%EV -11.83%E -3.76%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 16.2% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.91I 52.36%NM 43.87%EV -13.58%E -7.11%K -14.92%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.03%EV -17.04%E -5.50%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.10%EV -19.39%E -6.73%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 19.3% | 2026-02-28 23:03 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.63% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.00% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.38% | 1.5% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.02% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.62% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.36% | 1.5% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.86% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.89% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.26% | 1.9% | 2026-02-28 23:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.50% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.68% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.82% | 2.7% | 2026-02-28 23:05 |
| Smarkets | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.87% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.87% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.26% | 4.8% | 2026-02-28 23:02 |