L’École des cotesFrançais
Toluca v Guadalajara
Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →
Résultat du match
Toluca (Local)
Prévision 45.25%2.21cote équitable
EV -1.81%
Avantage -0.835%
Kelly -1.55%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 2.17
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
43.49%45.18%45.39%46.40%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.882.052.052.1753.19%48.77%48.78%46.08%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Guadalajara (Visiteur)
Prévision 26.76%3.74cote équitable
EV +0.090%
Avantage +0.024%
Kelly +0.033%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 3.74
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
25.66%26.75%26.72%27.52%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.103.453.453.7432.26%29.02%28.99%26.74%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Match nul
Prévision 27.99%3.57cote équitable
EV -3.43%
Avantage -0.995%
Kelly -1.40%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 3.45
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
27.04%28.07%27.89%30.31%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.883.183.203.4534.72%31.41%31.25%28.99%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Cotes des opérateurs (46 opérateurs)
Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur ▼ | Match nul | Marge | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.36%EV -6.34%E -3.06%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.66%EV +0.090%E +0.024%K +0.033%G +0.000% | 3.43I 29.15%NM 27.98%EV -3.99%E -1.16%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-02-28 22:59 |
| LowVig.ag | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.01%EV -4.98%E -2.37%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 25.98%EV -0.445%E -0.120%K -0.164%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.01%EV -3.43%E -0.995%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-02-28 23:00 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.01%EV -4.98%E -2.37%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 25.98%EV -0.445%E -0.120%K -0.164%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.01%EV -3.43%E -0.995%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-02-28 23:00 |
| Pinnacle | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.60%EV -4.08%E -1.92%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.13%EV -0.980%E -0.265%K -0.363%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 28.27%EV -4.27%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-02-28 22:59 |
| ATG (SE) | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.79%EV -1.81%E -0.835%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.04%EV -2.32%E -0.635%K -0.875%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.17%EV -11.83%E -3.76%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-28 23:03 |
| Svenska Spel | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.79%EV -1.81%E -0.835%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.04%EV -2.32%E -0.635%K -0.875%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.17%EV -11.83%E -3.76%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-28 23:03 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.40%EV -8.60%E -4.26%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -3.66%E -1.02%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -4.83%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| GTbets | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.15%EV -5.43%E -2.60%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.56I 28.09%NM 26.51%EV -4.73%E -1.33%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 28.34%EV -6.79%E -2.04%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-28 22:59 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.84%EV -4.08%E -1.92%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -4.99%E -1.41%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -13.23%E -4.27%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| Casumo | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.84%EV -4.08%E -1.92%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -4.99%E -1.41%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -13.23%E -4.27%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.84%EV -4.08%E -1.92%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -4.99%E -1.41%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -13.23%E -4.27%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| Grosvenor | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.84%EV -4.08%E -1.92%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -4.99%E -1.41%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -13.23%E -4.27%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| Unibet | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.84%EV -4.08%E -1.92%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -4.99%E -1.41%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -13.23%E -4.27%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-02-28 23:03 |
| betPARX | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.84%EV -4.08%E -1.92%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -4.99%E -1.41%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -13.23%E -4.27%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.01%EV -6.79%E -3.30%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 26.19%EV -5.26%E -1.49%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 28.80%EV -9.87%E -3.07%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-02-28 22:59 |
| FanDuel | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -7.24%E -3.53%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -6.33%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -4.83%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-02-28 23:03 |
| Bet Victor | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -7.24%E -3.53%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -6.33%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -4.83%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-02-28 23:02 |
| Bovada | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.24%EV -7.69%E -3.77%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.37%EV -6.33%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -9.03%E -2.78%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-02-28 22:57 |
| BetUS | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.24%EV -7.69%E -3.77%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.37%EV -6.33%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -9.03%E -2.78%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-02-28 22:58 |
| TABtouch | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.70%EV -4.98%E -2.37%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -6.33%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -14.63%E -4.80%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-02-28 23:03 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.71%EV -5.88%E -2.83%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.98%EV -6.33%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -16.03%E -5.34%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-02-28 23:03 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.71%EV -5.88%E -2.83%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.98%EV -6.33%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -16.03%E -5.34%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-02-28 23:03 |
| NordicBet | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.39%EV -5.88%E -2.83%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.76%EV -7.67%E -2.22%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.85%EV -10.43%E -3.26%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| Betsson | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.39%EV -5.88%E -2.83%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.76%EV -7.67%E -2.22%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.85%EV -10.43%E -3.26%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-02-28 23:05 |
| Bet Right | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.75%EV -9.50%E -4.75%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.52%EV -7.67%E -2.22%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -7.63%E -2.31%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-02-28 22:59 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.06I 48.54%NM 43.79%EV -6.79%E -3.30%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.15%EV -7.67%E -2.22%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.07%EV -16.03%E -5.34%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-02-28 23:03 |
| DraftKings | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -7.24%E -3.53%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -9.01%E -2.65%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -3.43%E -0.995%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| Fanatics | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -4.98%E -2.37%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -9.01%E -2.65%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -10.43%E -3.26%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| SportsBet | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -7.24%E -3.53%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -9.01%E -2.65%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -7.63%E -2.31%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| Betway | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -7.24%E -3.53%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -9.01%E -2.65%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -7.63%E -2.31%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| Everygame | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -7.24%E -3.53%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -9.01%E -2.65%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -10.43%E -3.26%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-02-28 22:59 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.64%EV -10.41%E -5.26%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -10.35%E -3.09%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -7.63%E -2.31%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| LeoVegas | 2.02I 49.50%NM 43.49%EV -8.60%E -4.26%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.22%EV -10.35%E -3.09%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.29%EV -18.83%E -6.49%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-02-28 23:03 |
| Paddy Power | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.02%EV -9.50%E -4.75%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.28%EV -11.69%E -3.54%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.70%EV -9.03%E -2.78%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-02-28 23:03 |
| 888sport | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.00%EV -9.50%E -4.75%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -11.69%E -3.54%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.33%EV -16.03%E -5.34%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-02-28 22:59 |
| William Hill | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.00%EV -9.50%E -4.75%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -11.69%E -3.54%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.33%EV -16.03%E -5.34%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-02-28 23:03 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.00%EV -9.50%E -4.75%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -11.69%E -3.54%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.33%EV -16.03%E -5.34%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-02-28 22:59 |
| 888sport (SE) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.00%EV -9.50%E -4.75%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -11.69%E -3.54%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.33%EV -16.03%E -5.34%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-02-28 22:59 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.90I 52.63%NM 45.27%EV -14.03%E -7.38%K -15.59%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.06%EV -11.69%E -3.54%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.67%EV -16.03%E -5.34%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 16.3% | 2026-02-28 22:58 |
| Coral | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -7.24%E -3.53%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -13.02%E -4.01%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -13.23%E -4.27%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-02-28 23:03 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -7.24%E -3.53%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -13.02%E -4.01%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -13.23%E -4.27%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-02-28 23:03 |
| Sky Bet | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.64%EV -9.50%E -4.75%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.47%EV -13.02%E -4.01%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.90%EV -10.43%E -3.26%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-02-28 23:03 |
| BoyleSports | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.64%EV -9.50%E -4.75%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.47%EV -13.02%E -4.01%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.90%EV -10.43%E -3.26%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-02-28 23:05 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.45%EV -11.77%E -6.03%K -12.39%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.27%EV -13.02%E -4.01%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.27%EV -9.03%E -2.78%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.88I 53.19%NM 45.78%EV -14.93%E -7.94%K -16.97%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.90%EV -14.36%E -4.49%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.32%EV -11.83%E -3.76%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 16.2% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.91I 52.36%NM 43.87%EV -13.58%E -7.11%K -14.92%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.03%EV -17.04%E -5.50%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.10%EV -19.39%E -6.73%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 19.3% | 2026-02-28 23:03 |
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu
Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.
Plateformes d’échange (5)
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur | Match nul | Marge ▲ | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.63% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.00% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.38% | 1.5% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.02% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.62% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.36% | 1.5% | 2026-02-28 23:04 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.86% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.89% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.26% | 1.9% | 2026-02-28 23:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.50% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.68% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.82% | 2.7% | 2026-02-28 23:05 |
| Smarkets | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.87% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.87% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.26% | 4.8% | 2026-02-28 23:02 |