Language:English
Puebla v Toluca
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Puebla (Local)
Prediction 16.61%6.02fair odd
EV +10.49%
Edge +1.58%
Kelly +1.86%
Growth +0.195%
assuming max odds 6.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.54%16.50%16.46%18.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.905.475.506.6520.41%18.27%18.18%15.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Toluca (Visit)
Prediction 62.72%1.59fair odd
EV -2.16%
Edge -1.38%
Kelly -3.86%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.56
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.00%62.65%62.86%65.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.491.481.5671.43%67.24%67.57%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 20.67%4.84fair odd
EV -0.796%
Edge -0.166%
Kelly -0.210%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.86%20.85%20.68%22.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.304.304.8025.64%23.25%23.26%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Puebla (Local): 16.61%; Toluca (Visit): 62.72%; Draw: 20.67%. For Puebla (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.02. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.49%.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 6.65I 15.04%NM 14.54%EV +10.49%E +1.58%K +1.86%G +0.195% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.32%EV -7.18%E -4.85%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.14%EV -0.796%E -0.166%K -0.210%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-16 00:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 6.65I 15.04%NM 14.54%EV +10.49%E +1.58%K +1.86%G +0.195% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.32%EV -7.18%E -4.85%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.14%EV -0.796%E -0.166%K -0.210%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-16 00:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 6.20I 16.13%NM 14.83%EV +3.01%E +0.486%K +0.579%G +0.017% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.74%EV -10.94%E -7.70%K -26.05%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -7.00%E -1.55%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-16 00:41 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%EV -0.310%E -0.052%K -0.062%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.63%EV -7.81%E -5.31%K -16.61%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -7.00%E -1.55%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-16 00:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -0.310%E -0.052%K -0.062%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.94%EV -9.06%E -6.25%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.60%EV -7.00%E -1.55%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-16 00:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -0.310%E -0.052%K -0.062%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.94%EV -9.06%E -6.25%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.60%EV -7.00%E -1.55%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-16 00:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.94I 16.84%NM 16.22%EV -1.31%E -0.220%K -0.265%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.40%EV -4.67%E -3.07%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 4.73I 21.14%NM 20.37%EV -2.24%E -0.474%K -0.601%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-16 00:55 |
| GTbets🎯 | 5.91I 16.92%NM 15.93%EV -1.81%E -0.306%K -0.368%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.77%EV -5.92%E -3.95%K -11.85%G +0.000% | 4.42I 22.62%NM 21.30%EV -8.65%E -1.96%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-16 00:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.74%EV -1.97%E -0.334%K -0.402%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89%EV -5.92%E -3.95%K -11.85%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.37%EV -14.23%E -3.43%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-16 00:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.61%EV -1.97%E -0.334%K -0.402%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.21%EV -7.18%E -4.85%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.19%EV -14.23%E -3.43%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-16 00:36 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 5.87I 17.04%NM 16.35%EV -2.47%E -0.421%K -0.507%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.74%EV -4.04%E -2.64%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 4.59I 21.79%NM 20.91%EV -5.14%E -1.12%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-16 00:49 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.41%EV -4.46%E -0.776%K -0.940%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.74%EV -7.18%E -4.85%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -1.83%E -0.385%K -0.488%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-16 00:36 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.37%EV -4.46%E -0.776%K -0.940%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.17%EV -6.55%E -4.40%K -13.37%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -4.93%E -1.07%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-16 00:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -4.46%E -0.776%K -0.940%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.33%EV -7.18%E -4.85%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -4.93%E -1.07%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-16 00:55 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.29%EV -4.46%E -0.776%K -0.940%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.43%EV -5.92%E -3.95%K -11.85%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -9.06%E -2.06%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-16 00:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.04%EV -4.46%E -0.776%K -0.940%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.47%EV -5.92%E -3.95%K -11.85%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -15.26%E -3.72%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-16 00:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.94%EV -4.46%E -0.776%K -0.940%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.22%EV -9.06%E -6.25%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.83%EV -9.06%E -2.06%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-16 00:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.44%EV -6.96%E -1.24%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.63%EV -7.81%E -5.31%K -16.61%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -9.06%E -2.06%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-16 00:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 5.58I 17.92%NM 16.96%EV -7.29%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.68%EV -5.30%E -3.51%K -10.39%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.35%EV -3.90%E -0.838%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-16 00:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -8.62%E -1.57%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.26%EV -5.92%E -3.95%K -11.85%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -7.00%E -1.55%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-16 00:50 |
| Fliff🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.61%EV -8.62%E -1.57%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.15%EV -7.81%E -5.31%K -16.61%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.25%EV -11.13%E -2.59%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-16 00:45 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.42%EV -8.62%E -1.57%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.72%EV -9.69%E -6.73%K -22.02%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.86%EV -10.51%E -2.43%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-16 00:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -8.62%E -1.57%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.32%EV -9.69%E -6.73%K -22.02%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -13.20%E -3.14%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-16 00:36 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.13%EV -8.62%E -1.57%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.38%EV -12.20%E -8.71%K -30.49%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.49%EV -10.51%E -2.43%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-16 00:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.13%EV -8.62%E -1.57%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.38%EV -12.20%E -8.71%K -30.49%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.49%EV -10.51%E -2.43%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-16 00:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 5.45I 18.35%NM 17.47%EV -9.45%E -1.73%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.83%EV -3.41%E -2.22%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.70%EV -4.93%E -1.07%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-15 23:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.81%EV -12.77%E -2.43%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.93%EV -2.16%E -1.38%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -13.20%E -3.14%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-16 00:41 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.81%EV -12.77%E -2.43%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.93%EV -2.16%E -1.38%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -13.20%E -3.14%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-16 00:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.50%EV -12.77%E -2.43%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.08%EV -7.18%E -4.85%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -7.00%E -1.55%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-16 00:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.07%EV -15.26%E -2.99%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.45%EV -2.79%E -1.80%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -15.26%E -3.72%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-16 00:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.07%EV -15.26%E -2.99%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.45%EV -2.79%E -1.80%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -15.26%E -3.72%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-16 00:41 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.07%EV -15.26%E -2.99%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.45%EV -2.79%E -1.80%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -15.26%E -3.72%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-16 00:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.07%EV -15.26%E -2.99%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.45%EV -2.79%E -1.80%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -15.26%E -3.72%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-16 00:41 |
| Casumo🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.07%EV -15.26%E -2.99%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.45%EV -2.79%E -1.80%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -15.26%E -3.72%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-16 00:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.07%EV -15.26%E -2.99%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.45%EV -2.79%E -1.80%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -15.26%E -3.72%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-16 00:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.07%EV -15.26%E -2.99%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.45%EV -2.79%E -1.80%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -15.26%E -3.72%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-16 00:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.77%EV -16.93%E -3.39%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.71%EV -9.69%E -6.73%K -22.02%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.52%EV -10.51%E -2.43%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-16 00:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.54%EV -16.93%E -3.39%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 61.33%EV -10.31%E -7.21%K -23.99%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 21.13%EV -14.23%E -3.43%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-09-16 00:54 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.51%EV -16.93%E -3.39%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 61.65%EV -10.94%E -7.70%K -26.05%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.84%EV -13.20%E -3.14%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-09-16 00:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -16.93%E -3.39%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.68%EV -9.69%E -6.73%K -22.02%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -17.33%E -4.33%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-09-15 22:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -16.93%E -3.39%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.68%EV -9.69%E -6.73%K -22.02%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -17.33%E -4.33%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-09-15 22:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -16.93%E -3.39%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.68%EV -9.69%E -6.73%K -22.02%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -17.33%E -4.33%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-09-15 22:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -16.93%E -3.39%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.68%EV -9.69%E -6.73%K -22.02%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -17.33%E -4.33%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-09-15 22:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.30%EV -18.59%E -3.79%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 59.00%EV -4.67%E -3.07%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.70%EV -18.36%E -4.65%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-16 00:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.30%EV -18.59%E -3.79%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 59.00%EV -4.67%E -3.07%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.70%EV -18.36%E -4.65%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-16 00:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.23%EV -18.59%E -3.79%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 59.16%EV -5.30%E -3.51%K -10.39%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.61%EV -18.36%E -4.65%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-16 00:46 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.11%EV -18.59%E -3.79%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.15%EV -5.92%E -3.95%K -11.85%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.75%EV -19.40%E -4.97%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-16 00:41 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.01% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.76% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.22% | 0.9% | 2026-09-16 00:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.01% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.76% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.22% | 0.9% | 2026-09-16 00:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.01% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.76% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.22% | 0.9% | 2026-09-16 00:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.95% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.49% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.56% | 1.3% | 2026-09-16 00:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.72% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 64.63% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.65% | 1.8% | 2026-09-16 00:41 |
| Smarkets◎ | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.35% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.19% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.46% | 1.8% | 2026-09-16 00:55 |