Idioma:Español
Puebla v Toluca
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Puebla (Local)
Predicción 16.61%6.02momio equitativo
EV +10.49%
Ventaja +1.58%
Kelly +1.86%
Crecimiento +0.195%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.65
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
14.54%16.50%16.46%18.30%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.905.475.506.6520.41%18.27%18.18%15.04%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Toluca (Visitante)
Predicción 62.72%1.59momio equitativo
EV -2.16%
Ventaja -1.38%
Kelly -3.86%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.56
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
59.00%62.65%62.86%65.32%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.401.491.481.5671.43%67.24%67.57%64.10%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 20.67%4.84momio equitativo
EV -0.796%
Ventaja -0.166%
Kelly -0.210%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.80
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.86%20.85%20.68%22.75%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.904.304.304.8025.64%23.25%23.26%20.83%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Puebla (Local): 16.61%; Toluca (Visitante): 62.72%; Empate: 20.67%. Para Puebla (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 6.02. 3 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 6.65, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +10.49%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (47 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 6.65I 15.04%NM 14.54%EV +10.49%E +1.58%K +1.86%G +0.195% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.32%EV -7.18%E -4.85%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.14%EV -0.796%E -0.166%K -0.210%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-16 00:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 6.65I 15.04%NM 14.54%EV +10.49%E +1.58%K +1.86%G +0.195% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.32%EV -7.18%E -4.85%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.14%EV -0.796%E -0.166%K -0.210%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-16 00:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 6.20I 16.13%NM 14.83%EV +3.01%E +0.486%K +0.579%G +0.017% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.74%EV -10.94%E -7.70%K -26.05%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -7.00%E -1.55%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-16 00:41 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%EV -0.310%E -0.052%K -0.062%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.63%EV -7.81%E -5.31%K -16.61%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -7.00%E -1.55%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-16 00:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -0.310%E -0.052%K -0.062%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.94%EV -9.06%E -6.25%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.60%EV -7.00%E -1.55%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-16 00:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -0.310%E -0.052%K -0.062%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.94%EV -9.06%E -6.25%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.60%EV -7.00%E -1.55%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-16 00:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.94I 16.84%NM 16.22%EV -1.31%E -0.220%K -0.265%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.40%EV -4.67%E -3.07%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 4.73I 21.14%NM 20.37%EV -2.24%E -0.474%K -0.601%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-16 00:55 |
| GTbets🎯 | 5.91I 16.92%NM 15.93%EV -1.81%E -0.306%K -0.368%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.77%EV -5.92%E -3.95%K -11.85%G +0.000% | 4.42I 22.62%NM 21.30%EV -8.65%E -1.96%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-16 00:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.74%EV -1.97%E -0.334%K -0.402%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89%EV -5.92%E -3.95%K -11.85%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.37%EV -14.23%E -3.43%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-16 00:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.61%EV -1.97%E -0.334%K -0.402%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.21%EV -7.18%E -4.85%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.19%EV -14.23%E -3.43%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-16 00:36 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 5.87I 17.04%NM 16.35%EV -2.47%E -0.421%K -0.507%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.74%EV -4.04%E -2.64%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 4.59I 21.79%NM 20.91%EV -5.14%E -1.12%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-16 00:49 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.41%EV -4.46%E -0.776%K -0.940%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.74%EV -7.18%E -4.85%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -1.83%E -0.385%K -0.488%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-16 00:36 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.37%EV -4.46%E -0.776%K -0.940%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.17%EV -6.55%E -4.40%K -13.37%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -4.93%E -1.07%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-16 00:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -4.46%E -0.776%K -0.940%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.33%EV -7.18%E -4.85%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -4.93%E -1.07%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-16 00:55 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.29%EV -4.46%E -0.776%K -0.940%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.43%EV -5.92%E -3.95%K -11.85%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -9.06%E -2.06%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-16 00:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.04%EV -4.46%E -0.776%K -0.940%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.47%EV -5.92%E -3.95%K -11.85%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -15.26%E -3.72%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-16 00:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.94%EV -4.46%E -0.776%K -0.940%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.22%EV -9.06%E -6.25%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.83%EV -9.06%E -2.06%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-16 00:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.44%EV -6.96%E -1.24%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.63%EV -7.81%E -5.31%K -16.61%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -9.06%E -2.06%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-16 00:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 5.58I 17.92%NM 16.96%EV -7.29%E -1.31%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.68%EV -5.30%E -3.51%K -10.39%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.35%EV -3.90%E -0.838%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-16 00:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -8.62%E -1.57%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.26%EV -5.92%E -3.95%K -11.85%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -7.00%E -1.55%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-16 00:50 |
| Fliff🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.61%EV -8.62%E -1.57%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.15%EV -7.81%E -5.31%K -16.61%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.25%EV -11.13%E -2.59%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-16 00:45 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.42%EV -8.62%E -1.57%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.72%EV -9.69%E -6.73%K -22.02%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.86%EV -10.51%E -2.43%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-16 00:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -8.62%E -1.57%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.32%EV -9.69%E -6.73%K -22.02%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -13.20%E -3.14%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-16 00:36 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.13%EV -8.62%E -1.57%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.38%EV -12.20%E -8.71%K -30.49%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.49%EV -10.51%E -2.43%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-16 00:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.13%EV -8.62%E -1.57%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.38%EV -12.20%E -8.71%K -30.49%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.49%EV -10.51%E -2.43%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-16 00:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 5.45I 18.35%NM 17.47%EV -9.45%E -1.73%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.83%EV -3.41%E -2.22%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.70%EV -4.93%E -1.07%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-15 23:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.81%EV -12.77%E -2.43%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.93%EV -2.16%E -1.38%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -13.20%E -3.14%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-16 00:41 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.81%EV -12.77%E -2.43%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.93%EV -2.16%E -1.38%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -13.20%E -3.14%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-16 00:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.50%EV -12.77%E -2.43%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.08%EV -7.18%E -4.85%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -7.00%E -1.55%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-16 00:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.07%EV -15.26%E -2.99%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.45%EV -2.79%E -1.80%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -15.26%E -3.72%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-16 00:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.07%EV -15.26%E -2.99%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.45%EV -2.79%E -1.80%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -15.26%E -3.72%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-16 00:41 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.07%EV -15.26%E -2.99%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.45%EV -2.79%E -1.80%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -15.26%E -3.72%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-16 00:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.07%EV -15.26%E -2.99%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.45%EV -2.79%E -1.80%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -15.26%E -3.72%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-16 00:41 |
| Casumo🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.07%EV -15.26%E -2.99%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.45%EV -2.79%E -1.80%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -15.26%E -3.72%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-16 00:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.07%EV -15.26%E -2.99%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.45%EV -2.79%E -1.80%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -15.26%E -3.72%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-16 00:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.07%EV -15.26%E -2.99%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.45%EV -2.79%E -1.80%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -15.26%E -3.72%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-16 00:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.77%EV -16.93%E -3.39%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.71%EV -9.69%E -6.73%K -22.02%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.52%EV -10.51%E -2.43%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-16 00:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.54%EV -16.93%E -3.39%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 61.33%EV -10.31%E -7.21%K -23.99%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 21.13%EV -14.23%E -3.43%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-09-16 00:54 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.51%EV -16.93%E -3.39%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 61.65%EV -10.94%E -7.70%K -26.05%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.84%EV -13.20%E -3.14%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-09-16 00:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -16.93%E -3.39%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.68%EV -9.69%E -6.73%K -22.02%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -17.33%E -4.33%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-09-15 22:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -16.93%E -3.39%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.68%EV -9.69%E -6.73%K -22.02%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -17.33%E -4.33%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-09-15 22:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -16.93%E -3.39%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.68%EV -9.69%E -6.73%K -22.02%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -17.33%E -4.33%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-09-15 22:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -16.93%E -3.39%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.68%EV -9.69%E -6.73%K -22.02%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -17.33%E -4.33%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-09-15 22:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.30%EV -18.59%E -3.79%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 59.00%EV -4.67%E -3.07%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.70%EV -18.36%E -4.65%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-16 00:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.30%EV -18.59%E -3.79%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 59.00%EV -4.67%E -3.07%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.70%EV -18.36%E -4.65%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-16 00:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.23%EV -18.59%E -3.79%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 59.16%EV -5.30%E -3.51%K -10.39%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.61%EV -18.36%E -4.65%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-16 00:46 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.11%EV -18.59%E -3.79%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.15%EV -5.92%E -3.95%K -11.85%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.75%EV -19.40%E -4.97%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-16 00:41 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (6)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.01% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.76% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.22% | 0.9% | 2026-09-16 00:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.01% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.76% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.22% | 0.9% | 2026-09-16 00:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.01% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.76% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.22% | 0.9% | 2026-09-16 00:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.95% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.49% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.56% | 1.3% | 2026-09-16 00:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.72% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 64.63% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.65% | 1.8% | 2026-09-16 00:41 |
| Smarkets◎ | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.35% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.19% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.46% | 1.8% | 2026-09-16 00:55 |