Language:English
Padova v Empoli
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Padova (Local)
Prediction 30.90%3.24fair odd
EV +1.97%
Edge +0.597%
Kelly +0.857%
Growth +0.017%
assuming max odds 3.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.24%30.81%30.94%32.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.672.983.003.3037.45%33.59%33.33%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Empoli (Visit)
Prediction 38.84%2.57fair odd
EV -2.51%
Edge -1.00%
Kelly -1.66%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.51
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.98%38.90%38.79%42.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.332.322.5150.00%42.87%43.10%39.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 30.26%3.30fair odd
EV -1.66%
Edge -0.510%
Kelly -0.737%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.51%30.29%30.27%33.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.633.033.053.2538.02%32.96%32.79%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Padova (Local): 30.90%; Empoli (Visit): 38.84%; Draw: 30.26%. For Padova (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.24. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.97%.
Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV +1.97%E +0.597%K +0.857%G +0.017% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -10.67%E -4.64%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -6.20%E -2.00%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.24I 30.86%NM 29.88%EV +0.117%E +0.036%K +0.052%G +0.000% | 2.51I 39.84%NM 38.58%EV -2.51%E -1.00%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.54%EV -7.10%E -2.31%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-12 12:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -1.12%E -0.350%K -0.508%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.36%EV -6.78%E -2.83%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -15.27%E -5.45%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.67%EV -4.21%E -1.36%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.62%EV -6.78%E -2.83%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.71%EV -3.17%E -0.991%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-12 12:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -4.21%E -1.36%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -6.78%E -2.83%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -9.22%E -3.07%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-12 12:59 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -4.21%E -1.36%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.35%EV -8.73%E -3.71%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -9.22%E -3.07%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -4.21%E -1.36%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.14%EV -8.73%E -3.71%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -10.73%E -3.64%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -4.21%E -1.36%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.55%EV -10.67%E -4.64%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -18.30%E -6.78%K -10.76%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.32%EV -5.75%E -1.89%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.83%EV -4.45%E -1.81%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.85%EV -3.17%E -0.991%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.15%EV -5.75%E -1.89%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 2.39I 41.84%NM 38.47%EV -7.17%E -3.00%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 31.38%EV -11.34%E -3.87%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-12 12:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.97%EV -5.75%E -1.89%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 38.73%EV -8.34%E -3.53%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.30%EV -11.64%E -3.99%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.97%EV -5.75%E -1.89%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 38.73%EV -8.34%E -3.53%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.30%EV -11.64%E -3.99%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-12 12:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.48%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.54%EV -4.84%E -1.98%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.98%EV -4.68%E -1.49%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-12 12:57 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -8.73%E -3.71%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -1.66%E -0.510%K -0.737%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -10.67%E -4.64%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -3.17%E -0.991%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.35%EV -8.73%E -3.71%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -6.20%E -2.00%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-12 12:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.84%EV -9.89%E -4.26%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -4.68%E -1.49%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.84%EV -9.89%E -4.26%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -4.68%E -1.49%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.84%EV -9.89%E -4.26%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -4.68%E -1.49%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.84%EV -9.89%E -4.26%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -4.68%E -1.49%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.84%EV -9.89%E -4.26%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -4.68%E -1.49%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.84%EV -9.89%E -4.26%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -4.68%E -1.49%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.84%EV -9.89%E -4.26%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -4.68%E -1.49%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.84%EV -9.89%E -4.26%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -4.68%E -1.49%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-12 13:01 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.84%EV -9.89%E -4.26%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -4.68%E -1.49%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -12.61%E -5.60%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -12.25%E -4.22%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-04-12 12:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -12.61%E -5.60%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -12.25%E -4.22%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-04-12 13:01 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -12.61%E -5.60%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -12.25%E -4.22%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-04-12 13:01 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.28%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.19%EV -10.67%E -4.64%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.53%EV -18.30%E -6.78%K -10.76%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.03%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 37.86%EV -10.67%E -4.64%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 33.11%EV -20.42%E -7.76%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.24%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 42.35%EV -22.32%E -11.16%K -22.32%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.41%EV -12.85%E -4.46%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 18.1% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.07%EV -7.92%E -2.66%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.58%EV -6.78%E -2.83%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.36%EV -7.71%E -2.53%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.07%EV -7.92%E -2.66%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.58%EV -6.78%E -2.83%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.36%EV -7.71%E -2.53%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-12 12:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.03%EV -8.84%E -3.00%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.95%EV -8.73%E -3.71%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.01%EV -7.71%E -2.53%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-12 12:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.92%EV -8.84%E -3.00%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.66%EV -10.67%E -4.64%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -6.20%E -2.00%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.81%EV -8.84%E -3.00%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 39.87%EV -11.44%E -5.02%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -6.20%E -2.00%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.81%EV -8.84%E -3.00%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 39.87%EV -11.44%E -5.02%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -6.20%E -2.00%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.62%EV -8.84%E -3.00%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.27%EV -10.67%E -4.64%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -9.22%E -3.07%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-12 12:59 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.91I 34.36%NM 32.65%EV -10.08%E -3.46%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 2.51I 39.84%NM 37.85%EV -2.51%E -1.00%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.50%EV -2.56%E -0.797%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 12:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -10.39%E -3.58%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -6.78%E -2.83%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -9.22%E -3.07%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-12 12:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -10.39%E -3.58%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -6.78%E -2.83%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -9.22%E -3.07%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -10.39%E -3.58%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.16%EV -12.61%E -5.60%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.68%EV -4.68%E -1.49%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.87%EV -10.39%E -3.58%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.78%EV -12.61%E -5.60%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.35%EV -7.71%E -2.53%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -10.39%E -3.58%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -12.61%E -5.60%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -9.22%E -3.07%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-04-12 12:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.96%EV -11.01%E -3.82%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.35%EV -6.78%E -2.83%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.69%EV -6.20%E -2.00%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-12 12:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.96%EV -11.01%E -3.82%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.35%EV -6.78%E -2.83%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.69%EV -6.20%E -2.00%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-12 12:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.96%EV -11.01%E -3.82%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.35%EV -6.78%E -2.83%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.69%EV -6.20%E -2.00%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-12 12:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.75%EV -11.01%E -3.82%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.50%EV -10.67%E -4.64%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.75%EV -12.85%E -4.46%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.79%EV -11.93%E -4.19%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.98%EV -4.84%E -1.98%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.24%EV -12.25%E -4.22%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.81%EV -11.93%E -4.19%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 39.92%EV -14.55%E -6.61%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.27%EV -9.22%E -3.07%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-04-12 13:01 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.53%EV -13.48%E -4.81%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.27%EV -7.56%E -3.18%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.20%EV -5.59%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.05%EV -13.48%E -4.81%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 40.44%EV -16.49%E -7.67%K -14.34%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.51%EV -7.71%E -2.53%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 15.0% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.73I 36.63%NM 32.65%EV -15.64%E -5.73%K -9.04%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.93%EV -8.73%E -3.71%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 29.42%EV -8.31%E -2.74%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.67I 37.45%NM 32.62%EV -17.50%E -6.55%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 37.86%EV -10.67%E -4.64%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.52%EV -10.73%E -3.64%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.42% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.80% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.79% | 1.5% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.42% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.80% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.79% | 1.5% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.42% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.80% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.79% | 1.5% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.33% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.98% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.69% | 1.8% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.39% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.80% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.80% | 3.1% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |