La escuela de los momiosEspañol
Padova v Empoli
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Padova (Local)
Predicción 30.90%3.24momio equitativo
EV +1.97%
Ventaja +0.597%
Kelly +0.857%
Crecimiento +0.017%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.30
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.24%30.81%30.94%32.65%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.672.983.003.3037.45%33.59%33.33%30.30%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empoli (Visitante)
Predicción 38.84%2.57momio equitativo
EV -2.51%
Ventaja -1.00%
Kelly -1.66%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.51
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.98%38.90%38.79%42.35%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.002.332.322.5150.00%42.87%43.10%39.84%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 30.26%3.30momio equitativo
EV -1.66%
Ventaja -0.510%
Kelly -0.737%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.25
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.51%30.29%30.27%33.11%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.633.033.053.2538.02%32.96%32.79%30.77%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (54 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV +1.97%E +0.597%K +0.857%G +0.017% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -10.67%E -4.64%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -6.20%E -2.00%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Pinnacle | 3.24I 30.86%NM 29.88%EV +0.117%E +0.036%K +0.052%G +0.000% | 2.51I 39.84%NM 38.58%EV -2.51%E -1.00%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.54%EV -7.10%E -2.31%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-12 12:59 |
| FanDuel | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -1.12%E -0.350%K -0.508%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.36%EV -6.78%E -2.83%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -15.27%E -5.45%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Coolbet | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.67%EV -4.21%E -1.36%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.62%EV -6.78%E -2.83%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.71%EV -3.17%E -0.991%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-12 12:59 |
| Marathon Bet | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -4.21%E -1.36%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -6.78%E -2.83%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -9.22%E -3.07%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-12 12:59 |
| BetMGM | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -4.21%E -1.36%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.35%EV -8.73%E -3.71%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -9.22%E -3.07%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Tipico (DE) | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -4.21%E -1.36%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.14%EV -8.73%E -3.71%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -10.73%E -3.64%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| SportsBet | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -4.21%E -1.36%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.55%EV -10.67%E -4.64%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -18.30%E -6.78%K -10.76%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Codere (IT) | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.32%EV -5.75%E -1.89%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.83%EV -4.45%E -1.81%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.85%EV -3.17%E -0.991%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| BetUS | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.15%EV -5.75%E -1.89%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 2.39I 41.84%NM 38.47%EV -7.17%E -3.00%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 31.38%EV -11.34%E -3.87%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-12 12:59 |
| LowVig.ag | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.97%EV -5.75%E -1.89%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 38.73%EV -8.34%E -3.53%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.30%EV -11.64%E -3.99%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| BetOnline.ag | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.97%EV -5.75%E -1.89%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 38.73%EV -8.34%E -3.53%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.30%EV -11.64%E -3.99%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-12 12:59 |
| Unibet (UK) | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.48%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.54%EV -4.84%E -1.98%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.98%EV -4.68%E -1.49%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-12 12:57 |
| DraftKings | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -8.73%E -3.71%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -1.66%E -0.510%K -0.737%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| theScore Bet | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -10.67%E -4.64%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -3.17%E -0.991%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.35%EV -8.73%E -3.71%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -6.20%E -2.00%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-12 12:59 |
| Unibet | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.84%EV -9.89%E -4.26%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -4.68%E -1.49%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.84%EV -9.89%E -4.26%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -4.68%E -1.49%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| TABtouch | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.84%EV -9.89%E -4.26%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -4.68%E -1.49%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.84%EV -9.89%E -4.26%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -4.68%E -1.49%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Casumo | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.84%EV -9.89%E -4.26%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -4.68%E -1.49%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Grosvenor | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.84%EV -9.89%E -4.26%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -4.68%E -1.49%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Svenska Spel | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.84%EV -9.89%E -4.26%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -4.68%E -1.49%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| betPARX | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.84%EV -9.89%E -4.26%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -4.68%E -1.49%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-12 13:01 |
| ATG (SE) | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.84%EV -9.89%E -4.26%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -4.68%E -1.49%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Neds | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -12.61%E -5.60%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -12.25%E -4.22%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-04-12 12:59 |
| Coral | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -12.61%E -5.60%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -12.25%E -4.22%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-04-12 13:01 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -12.61%E -5.60%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -12.25%E -4.22%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-04-12 13:01 |
| Paddy Power | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.28%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.19%EV -10.67%E -4.64%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.53%EV -18.30%E -6.78%K -10.76%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Sky Bet | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.03%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 37.86%EV -10.67%E -4.64%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 33.11%EV -20.42%E -7.76%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.24%EV -7.30%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 42.35%EV -22.32%E -11.16%K -22.32%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.41%EV -12.85%E -4.46%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 18.1% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| NordicBet | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.07%EV -7.92%E -2.66%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.58%EV -6.78%E -2.83%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.36%EV -7.71%E -2.53%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Betsson | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.07%EV -7.92%E -2.66%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.58%EV -6.78%E -2.83%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.36%EV -7.71%E -2.53%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-12 12:59 |
| Bet Right | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.03%EV -8.84%E -3.00%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.95%EV -8.73%E -3.71%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.01%EV -7.71%E -2.53%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-12 12:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.92%EV -8.84%E -3.00%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.66%EV -10.67%E -4.64%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -6.20%E -2.00%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.81%EV -8.84%E -3.00%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 39.87%EV -11.44%E -5.02%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -6.20%E -2.00%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.81%EV -8.84%E -3.00%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 39.87%EV -11.44%E -5.02%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -6.20%E -2.00%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Betr (AU) | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.62%EV -8.84%E -3.00%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.27%EV -10.67%E -4.64%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -9.22%E -3.07%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-12 12:59 |
| 1xBet | 2.91I 34.36%NM 32.65%EV -10.08%E -3.46%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 2.51I 39.84%NM 37.85%EV -2.51%E -1.00%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.50%EV -2.56%E -0.797%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 12:59 |
| Betway | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -10.39%E -3.58%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -6.78%E -2.83%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -9.22%E -3.07%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-12 12:59 |
| William Hill | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -10.39%E -3.58%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -6.78%E -2.83%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -9.22%E -3.07%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -10.39%E -3.58%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.16%EV -12.61%E -5.60%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.68%EV -4.68%E -1.49%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| LeoVegas | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.87%EV -10.39%E -3.58%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.78%EV -12.61%E -5.60%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.35%EV -7.71%E -2.53%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Unibet (FR) | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -10.39%E -3.58%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -12.61%E -5.60%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -9.22%E -3.07%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-04-12 12:59 |
| 888sport | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.96%EV -11.01%E -3.82%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.35%EV -6.78%E -2.83%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.69%EV -6.20%E -2.00%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-12 12:59 |
| 888sport (SE) | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.96%EV -11.01%E -3.82%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.35%EV -6.78%E -2.83%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.69%EV -6.20%E -2.00%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-12 12:59 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.96%EV -11.01%E -3.82%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.35%EV -6.78%E -2.83%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.69%EV -6.20%E -2.00%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-12 12:59 |
| BoyleSports | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.75%EV -11.01%E -3.82%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.50%EV -10.67%E -4.64%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.75%EV -12.85%E -4.46%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| PlayUp | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.79%EV -11.93%E -4.19%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.98%EV -4.84%E -1.98%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.24%EV -12.25%E -4.22%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| PMU (FR) | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.81%EV -11.93%E -4.19%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 39.92%EV -14.55%E -6.61%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.27%EV -9.22%E -3.07%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-04-12 13:01 |
| Bet Victor | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.53%EV -13.48%E -4.81%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.27%EV -7.56%E -3.18%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.20%EV -5.59%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Winamax (FR) | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.05%EV -13.48%E -4.81%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 40.44%EV -16.49%E -7.67%K -14.34%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.51%EV -7.71%E -2.53%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 15.0% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.73I 36.63%NM 32.65%EV -15.64%E -5.73%K -9.04%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.93%EV -8.73%E -3.71%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 29.42%EV -8.31%E -2.74%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| NetBet (FR) | 2.67I 37.45%NM 32.62%EV -17.50%E -6.55%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 37.86%EV -10.67%E -4.64%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.52%EV -10.73%E -3.64%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.42% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.80% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.79% | 1.5% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.42% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.80% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.79% | 1.5% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.42% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.80% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.79% | 1.5% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.33% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.98% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.69% | 1.8% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |
| Smarkets | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.39% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.80% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.80% | 3.1% | 2026-04-12 13:00 |