Language:English
Southampton v Arsenal
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Southampton (Local)
Prediction 13.04%7.67fair odd
EV +10.88%
Edge +1.28%
Kelly +1.45%
Growth +0.158%
assuming max odds 8.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.50%13.02%13.02%14.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.257.357.308.5016.00%13.61%13.70%11.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Arsenal (Visit)
Prediction 68.10%1.47fair odd
EV -1.26%
Edge -0.867%
Kelly -2.79%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.06%68.16%68.05%70.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.371.361.4575.76%72.80%73.53%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 18.86%5.30fair odd
EV -0.060%
Edge -0.011%
Kelly -0.014%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 5.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.68%18.82%18.93%21.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.955.005.3025.00%20.22%20.00%18.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Southampton (Local): 13.04%; Arsenal (Visit): 68.10%; Draw: 18.86%. For Southampton (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.67. 15 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.88%.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.50%EV +10.88%E +1.28%K +1.45%G +0.158% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 69.33%EV -3.98%E -2.82%K -9.71%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.17%EV -3.83%E -0.751%K -0.934%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-04-04 18:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.50%EV +10.88%E +1.28%K +1.45%G +0.158% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 69.33%EV -3.98%E -2.82%K -9.71%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.17%EV -3.83%E -0.751%K -0.934%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-04-04 18:24 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 8.30I 12.05%NM 11.80%EV +8.27%E +0.996%K +1.13%G +0.094% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.99%EV -3.30%E -2.32%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.21%EV -3.83%E -0.751%K -0.934%G +0.000% | 2.1% | 2026-04-04 18:49 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 8.30I 12.05%NM 11.65%EV +8.27%E +0.996%K +1.13%G +0.094% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.09%EV -6.02%E -4.36%K -15.85%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.25%EV -0.060%E -0.011%K -0.014%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-04 18:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 8.30I 12.05%NM 11.65%EV +8.27%E +0.996%K +1.13%G +0.094% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.09%EV -6.02%E -4.36%K -15.85%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.25%EV -0.060%E -0.011%K -0.014%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-04 18:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.85%EV +4.36%E +0.545%K +0.622%G +0.027% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.19%EV -6.70%E -4.89%K -18.12%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -5.72%E -1.14%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-04 18:24 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.79%EV +4.36%E +0.545%K +0.622%G +0.027% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.35%EV -7.39%E -5.43%K -20.52%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.86%EV -5.72%E -1.14%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-04 18:24 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.79%EV +4.36%E +0.545%K +0.622%G +0.027% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.35%EV -7.39%E -5.43%K -20.52%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.86%EV -5.72%E -1.14%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-04 18:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.79%EV +4.36%E +0.545%K +0.622%G +0.027% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.35%EV -7.39%E -5.43%K -20.52%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.86%EV -5.72%E -1.14%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-04 18:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.79%EV +4.36%E +0.545%K +0.622%G +0.027% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.35%EV -7.39%E -5.43%K -20.52%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.86%EV -5.72%E -1.14%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-04 18:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.74%EV +4.36%E +0.545%K +0.622%G +0.027% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.08%EV -7.39%E -5.43%K -20.52%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.17%EV -7.60%E -1.55%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-04 18:24 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV +4.36%E +0.545%K +0.622%G +0.027% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.39%E -5.43%K -20.52%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.50%EV -9.49%E -1.98%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-04 18:54 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.68%EV +4.36%E +0.545%K +0.622%G +0.027% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.24%EV -8.07%E -5.98%K -23.05%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV -7.60%E -1.55%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-04 18:24 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.52%EV +4.36%E +0.545%K +0.622%G +0.027% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -9.43%E -7.09%K -28.57%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -9.49%E -1.98%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-04 18:24 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 7.70I 12.99%NM 12.55%EV +0.443%E +0.057%K +0.066%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.51%EV -3.98%E -2.82%K -9.71%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.94%EV -3.83%E -0.751%K -0.934%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-04-04 18:19 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 7.59I 13.18%NM 12.70%EV -0.992%E -0.131%K -0.151%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.86%EV -4.66%E -3.33%K -11.65%G +0.000% | 5.23I 19.12%NM 18.43%EV -1.38%E -0.264%K -0.326%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-04 18:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.78%EV -2.17%E -0.289%K -0.333%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.96%EV -5.34%E -3.84%K -13.70%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.26%EV -1.00%E -0.191%K -0.236%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-04 18:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -2.17%E -0.289%K -0.333%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.39%E -5.43%K -20.52%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -5.72%E -1.14%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-04 18:09 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -2.17%E -0.289%K -0.333%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.27%EV -7.39%E -5.43%K -20.52%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -9.49%E -1.98%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-04 18:09 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -2.17%E -0.289%K -0.333%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -9.43%E -7.09%K -28.57%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -5.72%E -1.14%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-04 18:39 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -2.17%E -0.289%K -0.333%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -9.43%E -7.09%K -28.57%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -5.72%E -1.14%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-04 18:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.13%EV -2.17%E -0.289%K -0.333%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 68.92%EV -10.11%E -7.66%K -31.59%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.95%EV -9.49%E -1.98%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-04 18:24 |
| Betsson🎯 | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.91%EV -3.47%E -0.469%K -0.542%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.78%EV -3.98%E -2.82%K -9.71%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.31%EV -6.66%E -1.35%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-04 18:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.91%EV -3.47%E -0.469%K -0.542%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.78%EV -3.98%E -2.82%K -9.71%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.31%EV -6.66%E -1.35%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-04 18:49 |
| BetUS🎯 | 7.30I 13.70%NM 12.88%EV -4.78%E -0.654%K -0.758%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -6.02%E -4.36%K -15.85%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.99%EV -6.66%E -1.35%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-04 18:54 |
| Everygame🎯 | 7.25I 13.79%NM 13.11%EV -5.43%E -0.749%K -0.868%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.88%EV -4.66%E -3.33%K -11.65%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.01%EV -5.72%E -1.14%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-04 18:49 |
| Fliff🎯 | 7.05I 14.18%NM 12.96%EV -8.04%E -1.14%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.20%EV -8.75%E -6.53%K -25.73%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 18.84%EV -8.55%E -1.76%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-04 18:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -8.69%E -1.24%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -4.66%E -3.33%K -11.65%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -5.72%E -1.14%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-04 18:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -8.69%E -1.24%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -4.66%E -3.33%K -11.65%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -5.72%E -1.14%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-04 17:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -8.69%E -1.24%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -4.66%E -3.33%K -11.65%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -5.72%E -1.14%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-04 17:49 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -8.69%E -1.24%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -4.66%E -3.33%K -11.65%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -5.72%E -1.14%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-04 17:49 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -8.69%E -1.24%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -4.66%E -3.33%K -11.65%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -5.72%E -1.14%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-04 17:49 |
| Coral🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -8.69%E -1.24%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -4.66%E -3.33%K -11.65%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -5.72%E -1.14%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-04 17:49 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.50%EV -8.69%E -1.24%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.02%E -4.36%K -15.85%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.00%EV -1.00%E -0.191%K -0.236%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-04 18:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV -8.69%E -1.24%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.22%EV -6.02%E -4.36%K -15.85%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.53%EV -10.43%E -2.20%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-04 18:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.23%EV -8.69%E -1.24%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.61%EV -8.07%E -5.98%K -23.05%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.16%EV -3.83%E -0.751%K -0.934%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-04 18:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -8.69%E -1.24%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.54%EV -7.39%E -5.43%K -20.52%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.34%EV -10.43%E -2.20%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-04 18:49 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -8.69%E -1.24%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -9.43%E -7.09%K -28.57%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -5.72%E -1.14%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-04 18:39 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 6.80I 14.71%NM 13.72%EV -11.30%E -1.66%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.62%EV -6.02%E -4.36%K -15.85%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.66%EV -5.72%E -1.14%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-04 18:29 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 6.79I 14.73%NM 14.29%EV -11.43%E -1.68%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.91%EV -1.26%E -0.867%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 5.16I 19.38%NM 18.80%EV -2.70%E -0.523%K -0.649%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-04-04 18:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.51%EV -11.95%E -1.77%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.08%EV -7.39%E -5.43%K -20.52%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.41%EV -11.37%E -2.42%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-04 18:24 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.51%EV -11.95%E -1.77%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.08%EV -7.39%E -5.43%K -20.52%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.41%EV -11.37%E -2.42%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-04 18:24 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.42%EV -15.21%E -2.34%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.90%EV -6.02%E -4.36%K -15.85%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.68%EV -0.060%E -0.011%K -0.014%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-04 18:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -15.21%E -2.34%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.45%EV -7.39%E -5.43%K -20.52%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.65%EV -13.26%E -2.88%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-04 18:24 |
| William Hill🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -15.21%E -2.34%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.45%EV -7.39%E -5.43%K -20.52%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.65%EV -13.26%E -2.88%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-04 18:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -15.21%E -2.34%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.45%EV -7.39%E -5.43%K -20.52%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.65%EV -13.26%E -2.88%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-04 18:24 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -15.21%E -2.34%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.45%EV -7.39%E -5.43%K -20.52%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.65%EV -13.26%E -2.88%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-04 18:24 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.31%EV -15.21%E -2.34%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 65.06%EV -9.43%E -7.09%K -28.57%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.63%EV -24.57%E -6.14%K -8.19%G +0.000% | 15.6% | 2026-04-04 17:44 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.66%EV -18.47%E -2.96%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.37%EV -7.39%E -5.43%K -20.52%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.97%EV -3.83%E -0.751%K -0.934%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-04 18:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.33% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 70.21% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.46% | 0.3% | 2026-04-04 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.33% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 70.21% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.46% | 0.3% | 2026-04-04 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.33% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 70.21% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.46% | 0.3% | 2026-04-04 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.33% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 70.21% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.46% | 0.3% | 2026-04-04 18:54 |
| Matchbook◎ | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.56% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 70.02% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.41% | 0.6% | 2026-04-04 18:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 8.33I 12.00%NM 11.78% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 70.58% | 5.56I 17.99%NM 17.64% | 1.9% | 2026-04-04 18:55 |