Language:English
Chelsea v Port Vale
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Chelsea (Local)
Prediction 90.79%1.10fair odd
EV -1.95%
Edge -1.81%
Kelly -24.37%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.08
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
88.87%90.78%90.91%92.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.041.041.0899.01%95.98%96.15%92.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Port Vale (Visit)
Prediction 2.66%37.57fair odd
EV +35.73%
Edge +0.701%
Kelly +0.715%
Growth +0.255%
assuming max odds 51.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
1.90%2.65%2.67%4.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
23.0038.6141.0051.004.35%2.59%2.44%1.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 6.55%15.26fair odd
EV +37.58%
Edge +1.79%
Kelly +1.88%
Growth +0.706%
assuming max odds 21.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.54%6.57%6.42%7.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
12.5014.9815.0021.008.00%6.67%6.67%4.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chelsea (Local): 90.79%; Port Vale (Visit): 2.66%; Draw: 6.55%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 15.26. 17 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 21.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +37.58%.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.65%EV -6.49%E -6.30%K -216.31%G +0.000% | 34.00I 2.94%NM 2.81%EV -9.51%E -0.280%K -0.288%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.54%EV +37.58%E +1.79%K +1.88%G +0.706% | 4.8% | 2026-04-04 16:09 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.77%EV -6.49%E -6.30%K -216.31%G +0.000% | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.26%EV -22.82%E -0.787%K -0.815%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.97%EV +24.48%E +1.29%K +1.36%G +0.333% | 5.8% | 2026-04-04 16:09 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 92.39%EV -4.67%E -4.45%K -93.47%G +0.000% | 51.00I 1.96%NM 1.90%EV +35.73%E +0.701%K +0.715%G +0.255% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.71%EV +11.38%E +0.669%K +0.711%G +0.081% | 3.1% | 2026-04-04 16:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 92.39%EV -4.67%E -4.45%K -93.47%G +0.000% | 51.00I 1.96%NM 1.90%EV +35.73%E +0.701%K +0.715%G +0.255% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.71%EV +11.38%E +0.669%K +0.711%G +0.081% | 3.1% | 2026-04-04 16:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.04%EV -5.58%E -5.37%K -139.53%G +0.000% | 41.00I 2.44%NM 2.33%EV +9.12%E +0.222%K +0.228%G +0.021% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.63%EV +11.38%E +0.669%K +0.711%G +0.081% | 4.5% | 2026-04-04 16:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.67%EV -6.49%E -6.30%K -216.31%G +0.000% | 34.00I 2.94%NM 2.78%EV -9.51%E -0.280%K -0.288%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.55%EV +11.38%E +0.669%K +0.711%G +0.081% | 5.9% | 2026-04-04 16:09 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.59%EV -3.77%E -3.55%K -62.76%G +0.000% | 38.50I 2.60%NM 2.52%EV +2.46%E +0.064%K +0.066%G +0.002% | 16.50I 6.06%NM 5.88%EV +8.10%E +0.491%K +0.523%G +0.042% | 3.0% | 2026-04-04 16:01 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 92.23%EV -4.67%E -4.45%K -93.47%G +0.000% | 51.00I 1.96%NM 1.90%EV +35.73%E +0.701%K +0.715%G +0.255% | 16.50I 6.06%NM 5.87%EV +8.10%E +0.491%K +0.523%G +0.042% | 3.3% | 2026-04-04 16:01 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 90.97%EV -1.95%E -1.81%K -24.37%G +0.000% | 34.00I 2.94%NM 2.89%EV -9.51%E -0.280%K -0.288%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.14%EV +4.82%E +0.302%K +0.322%G +0.016% | 1.8% | 2026-04-04 15:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.02%EV -6.49%E -6.30%K -216.31%G +0.000% | 46.00I 2.17%NM 2.06%EV +22.42%E +0.487%K +0.498%G +0.112% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.92%EV +4.82%E +0.302%K +0.322%G +0.016% | 5.5% | 2026-04-04 16:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.02%EV -6.49%E -6.30%K -216.31%G +0.000% | 46.00I 2.17%NM 2.06%EV +22.42%E +0.487%K +0.498%G +0.112% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.92%EV +4.82%E +0.302%K +0.322%G +0.016% | 5.5% | 2026-04-04 16:09 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.02%EV -6.49%E -6.30%K -216.31%G +0.000% | 46.00I 2.17%NM 2.06%EV +22.42%E +0.487%K +0.498%G +0.112% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.92%EV +4.82%E +0.302%K +0.322%G +0.016% | 5.5% | 2026-04-04 16:09 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.02%EV -6.49%E -6.30%K -216.31%G +0.000% | 46.00I 2.17%NM 2.06%EV +22.42%E +0.487%K +0.498%G +0.112% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.92%EV +4.82%E +0.302%K +0.322%G +0.016% | 5.5% | 2026-04-04 16:09 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.02%EV -6.49%E -6.30%K -216.31%G +0.000% | 46.00I 2.17%NM 2.06%EV +22.42%E +0.487%K +0.498%G +0.112% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.92%EV +4.82%E +0.302%K +0.322%G +0.016% | 5.5% | 2026-04-04 16:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.79%EV -6.49%E -6.30%K -216.31%G +0.000% | 41.00I 2.44%NM 2.31%EV +9.12%E +0.222%K +0.228%G +0.021% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.91%EV +4.82%E +0.302%K +0.322%G +0.016% | 5.8% | 2026-04-04 16:01 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.09%EV -7.40%E -7.25%K -369.86%G +0.000% | 46.00I 2.17%NM 2.04%EV +22.42%E +0.487%K +0.498%G +0.112% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.87%EV +4.82%E +0.302%K +0.322%G +0.016% | 6.5% | 2026-04-04 16:09 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.09%EV -7.40%E -7.25%K -369.86%G +0.000% | 46.00I 2.17%NM 2.04%EV +22.42%E +0.487%K +0.498%G +0.112% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.87%EV +4.82%E +0.302%K +0.322%G +0.016% | 6.5% | 2026-04-04 16:09 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.20%EV -3.77%E -3.55%K -62.76%G +0.000% | 41.00I 2.44%NM 2.36%EV +9.12%E +0.222%K +0.228%G +0.021% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.44%EV -1.73%E -0.115%K -0.123%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-04 15:44 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.20%EV -3.77%E -3.55%K -62.76%G +0.000% | 41.00I 2.44%NM 2.36%EV +9.12%E +0.222%K +0.228%G +0.021% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.44%EV -1.73%E -0.115%K -0.123%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-04 15:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.51%EV -4.67%E -4.45%K -93.47%G +0.000% | 46.00I 2.17%NM 2.09%EV +22.42%E +0.487%K +0.498%G +0.112% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.41%EV -1.73%E -0.115%K -0.123%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-04 16:09 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.51%EV -4.67%E -4.45%K -93.47%G +0.000% | 46.00I 2.17%NM 2.09%EV +22.42%E +0.487%K +0.498%G +0.112% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.41%EV -1.73%E -0.115%K -0.123%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-04 16:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.27%EV -4.67%E -4.45%K -93.47%G +0.000% | 41.00I 2.44%NM 2.34%EV +9.12%E +0.222%K +0.228%G +0.021% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.39%EV -1.73%E -0.115%K -0.123%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-04 16:09 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.27%EV -4.67%E -4.45%K -93.47%G +0.000% | 41.00I 2.44%NM 2.34%EV +9.12%E +0.222%K +0.228%G +0.021% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.39%EV -1.73%E -0.115%K -0.123%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-04 16:09 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.27%EV -4.67%E -4.45%K -93.47%G +0.000% | 41.00I 2.44%NM 2.34%EV +9.12%E +0.222%K +0.228%G +0.021% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.39%EV -1.73%E -0.115%K -0.123%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-04 16:09 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.32%EV -3.77%E -3.55%K -62.76%G +0.000% | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.30%EV -22.82%E -0.787%K -0.815%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.38%EV -1.73%E -0.115%K -0.123%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-04 16:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.98%EV -4.67%E -4.45%K -93.47%G +0.000% | 36.00I 2.78%NM 2.65%EV -4.19%E -0.116%K -0.120%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -1.73%E -0.115%K -0.123%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-04 15:44 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.98%EV -4.67%E -4.45%K -93.47%G +0.000% | 36.00I 2.78%NM 2.65%EV -4.19%E -0.116%K -0.120%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -1.73%E -0.115%K -0.123%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-04 16:09 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.48%EV -5.58%E -5.37%K -139.53%G +0.000% | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.24%EV -22.82%E -0.787%K -0.815%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.27%EV -1.73%E -0.115%K -0.123%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-04 16:08 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 91.80%EV -8.30%E -8.22%K -830.50%G +0.000% | 46.00I 2.17%NM 2.02%EV +22.42%E +0.487%K +0.498%G +0.112% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.18%EV -1.73%E -0.115%K -0.123%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-04 16:09 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 90.43%EV -7.40%E -7.25%K -369.86%G +0.000% | 27.00I 3.70%NM 3.42%EV -28.14%E -1.04%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.15%EV -1.73%E -0.115%K -0.123%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-04 16:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.31%EV -3.77%E -3.55%K -62.76%G +0.000% | 31.00I 3.23%NM 3.09%EV -17.50%E -0.564%K -0.583%G +0.000% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.60%EV -5.00%E -0.345%K -0.371%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-04 16:09 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.60%EV -6.49%E -6.30%K -216.31%G +0.000% | 33.25I 3.01%NM 2.81%EV -11.51%E -0.346%K -0.357%G +0.000% | 14.15I 7.07%NM 6.59%EV -7.30%E -0.516%K -0.555%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-04 16:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 91.18%EV -8.30%E -8.22%K -830.50%G +0.000% | 41.00I 2.44%NM 2.25%EV +9.12%E +0.222%K +0.228%G +0.021% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.58%EV -8.28%E -0.591%K -0.637%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-04 15:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 89.58%EV -7.40%E -7.25%K -369.86%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.65%EV -33.47%E -1.34%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 6.77%EV -11.55%E -0.856%K -0.924%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-04 16:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.44%EV -3.77%E -3.55%K -62.76%G +0.000% | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.27%EV -22.82%E -0.787%K -0.815%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.29%EV -14.83%E -1.14%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-04 16:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.44%EV -3.77%E -3.55%K -62.76%G +0.000% | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.27%EV -22.82%E -0.787%K -0.815%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.29%EV -14.83%E -1.14%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-04 16:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.44%EV -3.77%E -3.55%K -62.76%G +0.000% | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.27%EV -22.82%E -0.787%K -0.815%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.29%EV -14.83%E -1.14%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-04 16:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.10%EV -4.67%E -4.45%K -93.47%G +0.000% | 36.00I 2.78%NM 2.63%EV -4.19%E -0.116%K -0.120%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -14.83%E -1.14%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-04 16:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.69%EV -5.58%E -5.37%K -139.53%G +0.000% | 46.00I 2.17%NM 2.05%EV +22.42%E +0.487%K +0.498%G +0.112% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.26%EV -14.83%E -1.14%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-04 16:10 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.53%EV -4.67%E -4.45%K -93.47%G +0.000% | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.24%EV -22.82%E -0.787%K -0.815%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV -14.83%E -1.14%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-04 14:59 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.11%EV -5.58%E -5.37%K -139.53%G +0.000% | 35.00I 2.86%NM 2.68%EV -6.85%E -0.196%K -0.202%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -14.83%E -1.14%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-04 16:09 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.04%EV -5.58%E -5.37%K -139.53%G +0.000% | 34.00I 2.94%NM 2.75%EV -9.51%E -0.280%K -0.288%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.20%EV -14.83%E -1.14%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-04 16:09 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.80%EV -5.58%E -5.37%K -139.53%G +0.000% | 31.00I 3.23%NM 3.01%EV -17.50%E -0.564%K -0.583%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.18%EV -14.83%E -1.14%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-04 16:08 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.33%EV -6.49%E -6.30%K -216.31%G +0.000% | 37.00I 2.70%NM 2.51%EV -1.53%E -0.041%K -0.043%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.16%EV -14.83%E -1.14%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-04 16:09 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 88.87%EV -5.58%E -5.37%K -139.53%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.02%EV -38.79%E -1.69%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.11%EV -14.83%E -1.14%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-04 16:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.67%E -4.45%K -93.47%G +0.000% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.90%EV +33.07%E +0.661%K +0.675%G +0.223% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.60%EV -18.11%E -1.45%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-04 16:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.67%E -4.45%K -93.47%G +0.000% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.90%EV +33.07%E +0.661%K +0.675%G +0.223% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.60%EV -18.11%E -1.45%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-04 16:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.07I 93.46%NM 92.96% | 54.95I 1.82%NM 1.81% | 19.01I 5.26%NM 5.23% | 0.5% | 2026-04-04 16:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.48% | 55.00I 1.82%NM 1.80% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.72% | 0.9% | 2026-04-04 16:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.48% | 55.00I 1.82%NM 1.80% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.72% | 0.9% | 2026-04-04 15:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.48% | 55.00I 1.82%NM 1.80% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.72% | 0.9% | 2026-04-04 15:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.31% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.98% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.71% | 1.1% | 2026-04-04 16:09 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 92.18% | 33.33I 3.00%NM 2.93% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.89% | 2.3% | 2026-04-04 15:49 |