Language:English
Port Vale v Lincoln City
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Port Vale (Local)
Prediction 20.45%4.89fair odd
EV +2.26%
Edge +0.453%
Kelly +0.566%
Growth +0.013%
assuming max odds 5.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.83%20.37%20.52%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.124.524.505.0024.27%22.14%22.22%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Lincoln City (Visit)
Prediction 55.34%1.81fair odd
EV -3.71%
Edge -2.13%
Kelly -5.02%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.74
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.78%55.32%55.28%56.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.691.691.7461.73%59.19%59.17%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 24.21%4.13fair odd
EV +5.31%
Edge +1.22%
Kelly +1.59%
Growth +0.084%
assuming max odds 4.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.53%24.31%24.20%25.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.803.804.3527.78%26.35%26.32%22.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Port Vale (Local): 20.45%; Lincoln City (Visit): 55.34%; Draw: 24.21%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.13. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.31%.
Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.12I 24.27%NM 22.73%EV -15.73%E -3.82%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.74%EV -7.03%E -4.19%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.53%EV +5.31%E +1.22%K +1.59%G +0.084% | 6.8% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.59%EV -5.92%E -1.29%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.72%EV -5.93%E -3.49%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -3.16%E -0.791%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.53%EV -5.92%E -1.29%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.87%EV -6.48%E -3.83%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -3.16%E -0.791%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-02 13:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -7.96%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.91%EV -7.59%E -4.54%K -11.32%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -3.16%E -0.791%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-02 13:01 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.41%EV -4.89%E -1.05%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.81%EV -5.93%E -3.49%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 3.99I 25.06%NM 23.78%EV -3.40%E -0.853%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-02 13:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.08%EV -8.98%E -2.02%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.18%EV -5.93%E -3.49%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -4.37%E -1.11%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.08%EV -8.98%E -2.02%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.18%EV -5.93%E -3.49%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -4.37%E -1.11%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.07%EV -4.89%E -1.05%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.23%EV -8.14%E -4.90%K -12.33%G +0.000% | 3.94I 25.38%NM 23.69%EV -4.61%E -1.17%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -5.92%E -1.29%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -5.93%E -3.49%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -5.58%E -1.43%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -5.92%E -1.29%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -5.93%E -3.49%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -5.58%E -1.43%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -5.92%E -1.29%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.53%EV -6.48%E -3.83%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -5.58%E -1.43%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-02 13:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -7.96%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -5.93%E -3.49%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -5.58%E -1.43%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-02 13:31 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -5.92%E -1.29%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.68%EV -7.03%E -4.19%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -5.58%E -1.43%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -2.85%E -0.600%K -0.760%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.86%EV -7.03%E -4.19%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.38%EV -6.79%E -1.76%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV +2.26%E +0.453%K +0.566%G +0.013% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.39%EV -7.59%E -4.54%K -11.32%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -8.00%E -2.11%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-02 13:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV +0.219%E +0.045%K +0.056%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.32%EV -8.14%E -4.90%K -12.33%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -8.00%E -2.11%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -7.96%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.94%EV -6.48%E -3.83%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.43%EV -8.00%E -2.11%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -7.96%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.94%EV -6.48%E -3.83%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.43%EV -8.00%E -2.11%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-02 13:56 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -7.96%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.08%EV -7.03%E -4.19%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -8.00%E -2.11%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-02 13:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -7.96%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.08%EV -7.03%E -4.19%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -8.00%E -2.11%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -5.92%E -1.29%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.63%EV -8.14%E -4.90%K -12.33%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -8.00%E -2.11%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-02 13:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -7.96%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.23%EV -7.59%E -4.54%K -11.32%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -8.00%E -2.11%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-02 13:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -5.92%E -1.29%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.78%EV -8.69%E -5.27%K -13.37%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -8.00%E -2.11%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-02 13:01 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -7.96%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.38%EV -8.14%E -4.90%K -12.33%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -8.00%E -2.11%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-02 13:53 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -7.96%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.38%EV -8.14%E -4.90%K -12.33%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -8.00%E -2.11%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.13%EV -11.44%E -2.64%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -7.59%E -4.54%K -11.32%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.08%EV -8.00%E -2.11%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-02 13:54 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.80%EV -5.92%E -1.29%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.23%EV -10.35%E -6.39%K -16.70%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -8.00%E -2.11%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-02 13:45 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.18%EV -12.05%E -2.80%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.86%EV -8.14%E -4.90%K -12.33%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.96%EV -8.00%E -2.11%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-02 13:31 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.89%EV -7.96%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.03%EV -3.71%E -2.13%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.07%EV -9.21%E -2.46%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-02 13:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.89%EV -7.96%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.03%EV -3.71%E -2.13%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.07%EV -9.21%E -2.46%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-02 13:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.89%EV -7.96%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.03%EV -3.71%E -2.13%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.07%EV -9.21%E -2.46%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-02 13:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%EV -10.01%E -2.27%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.36%EV -5.93%E -3.49%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.64%EV -9.21%E -2.46%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -7.96%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.05%EV -7.59%E -4.54%K -11.32%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -9.21%E -2.46%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-02 13:43 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.36%EV -7.96%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.20%EV -8.14%E -4.90%K -12.33%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -9.21%E -2.46%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
| Everygame🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.66%EV -10.01%E -2.27%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.10%EV -8.69%E -5.27%K -13.37%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -9.21%E -2.46%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-02 13:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -1.83%E -0.380%K -0.480%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -5.93%E -3.49%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -10.43%E -2.82%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -7.96%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.14%EV -4.82%E -2.80%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -10.43%E -2.82%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-02 13:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -7.96%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.14%EV -4.82%E -2.80%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -10.43%E -2.82%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-02 13:31 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -7.96%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.14%EV -4.82%E -2.80%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -10.43%E -2.82%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-02 13:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -7.96%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.14%EV -4.82%E -2.80%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -10.43%E -2.82%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-02 13:31 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -7.96%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.14%EV -4.82%E -2.80%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -10.43%E -2.82%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-02 13:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -7.96%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.14%EV -4.82%E -2.80%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -10.43%E -2.82%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-02 13:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -7.96%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.14%EV -4.82%E -2.80%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -10.43%E -2.82%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-02 13:31 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -7.96%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.28%EV -5.37%E -3.14%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -10.43%E -2.82%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-02 13:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -7.96%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.28%EV -5.37%E -3.14%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -10.43%E -2.82%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-02 13:31 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.36%EV -7.96%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.87%EV -7.59%E -4.54%K -11.32%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.77%EV -10.43%E -2.82%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-02 13:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.51%EV -13.08%E -3.08%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.78%EV -5.93%E -3.49%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.71%EV -10.43%E -2.82%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.79%EV -10.01%E -2.27%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.80%EV -5.93%E -3.49%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.41%EV -12.85%E -3.57%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-02 13:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.79%EV -10.01%E -2.27%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.80%EV -5.93%E -3.49%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.41%EV -12.85%E -3.57%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-02 13:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.79%EV -10.01%E -2.27%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.80%EV -5.93%E -3.49%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.41%EV -12.85%E -3.57%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-02 13:56 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.66%EV -10.01%E -2.27%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.10%EV -7.03%E -4.19%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -12.85%E -3.57%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-02 13:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.66%EV -10.01%E -2.27%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.10%EV -7.03%E -4.19%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -12.85%E -3.57%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-02 13:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.39% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.50% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12% | 1.1% | 2026-05-02 13:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.39% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.50% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12% | 1.1% | 2026-05-02 13:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.39% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.50% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12% | 1.1% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.39% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.50% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12% | 1.1% | 2026-05-02 13:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.70% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.28% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.02% | 1.5% | 2026-05-02 13:50 |