Language:English
Bolton Wanderers v Luton
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Bolton Wanderers (Local)
Prediction 42.03%2.38fair odd
EV -2.06%
Edge -0.883%
Kelly -1.55%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.33
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.01%42.09%41.87%43.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.232.242.3348.78%44.88%44.64%42.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Luton (Visit)
Prediction 34.75%2.88fair odd
EV -3.39%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -1.90%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.78
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.79%34.74%34.85%36.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.652.652.7840.00%37.73%37.74%35.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 23.21%4.31fair odd
EV +2.14%
Edge +0.486%
Kelly +0.629%
Growth +0.013%
assuming max odds 4.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.31%23.17%23.28%26.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.983.954.4030.30%25.13%25.32%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bolton Wanderers (Local): 42.03%; Luton (Visit): 34.75%; Draw: 23.21%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.31. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.14%.
Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.62%EV -7.52%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.07%EV -9.65%E -3.71%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV +2.14%E +0.486%K +0.629%G +0.013% | 6.6% | 2026-05-02 13:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.88%EV -6.68%E -3.01%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.71I 36.90%NM 35.13%EV -5.82%E -2.15%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.99%EV +0.514%E +0.119%K +0.154%G +0.001% | 5.0% | 2026-05-02 13:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.76%EV -7.52%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.84%EV -6.17%E -2.29%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -2.50%E -0.596%K -0.783%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-02 13:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.99%EV -8.78%E -4.05%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 34.81%EV -6.87%E -2.56%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.21%EV -2.50%E -0.596%K -0.783%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.31%EV -7.52%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.53%EV -8.95%E -3.42%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.16%EV -2.50%E -0.596%K -0.783%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-02 13:46 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.31%EV -7.52%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.53%EV -8.95%E -3.42%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.16%EV -2.50%E -0.596%K -0.783%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-02 13:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.67%EV -10.89%E -5.13%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.29%EV -6.17%E -2.29%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.04%EV -2.50%E -0.596%K -0.783%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -9.62%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.36%EV -9.65%E -3.71%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -2.50%E -0.596%K -0.783%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-02 13:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.26%EV -6.68%E -3.01%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.67I 37.45%NM 35.14%EV -7.21%E -2.70%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.61%EV -3.66%E -0.883%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-02 13:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.99%EV -10.89%E -5.13%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 33.54%EV -3.39%E -1.22%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.47%EV -3.66%E -0.883%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.99%EV -10.89%E -5.13%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 33.54%EV -3.39%E -1.22%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.47%EV -3.66%E -0.883%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.09%EV -5.84%E -2.61%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.92%EV -6.17%E -2.29%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.99%EV -4.83%E -1.18%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.09%EV -5.84%E -2.61%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.92%EV -6.17%E -2.29%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.99%EV -4.83%E -1.18%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.53%EV -9.62%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.17%EV -9.65%E -3.71%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.30%EV -4.83%E -1.18%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-02 13:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.47%EV -3.32%E -1.44%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -4.43%E -1.61%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.85%EV -7.15%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-02 13:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.00%EV -5.42%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.43%E -1.61%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.63%EV -7.15%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-02 12:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.74%EV -5.42%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.17%E -2.29%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -7.15%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-02 12:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -7.52%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.88%EV -7.91%E -2.98%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -7.15%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-02 13:53 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -7.52%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.88%EV -7.91%E -2.98%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -7.15%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.85%EV -9.62%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -6.17%E -2.29%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -7.15%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-02 13:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.85%EV -7.52%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.14%EV -8.95%E -3.42%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -7.15%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-02 13:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.85%EV -7.52%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.14%EV -8.95%E -3.42%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -7.15%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-02 13:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.85%EV -7.52%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.14%EV -8.95%E -3.42%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -7.15%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-02 13:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.85%EV -7.52%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.14%EV -8.95%E -3.42%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -7.15%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-02 13:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -9.62%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.54%EV -7.91%E -2.98%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.88%EV -7.15%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-02 13:23 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 42.87%EV -13.83%E -6.75%K -13.17%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.16%EV -13.12%E -5.25%K -8.75%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.97%EV -7.15%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-05-02 13:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.39%EV -2.06%E -0.883%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.78%EV -8.60%E -3.27%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.83%EV -8.31%E -2.10%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-02 13:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.39%EV -2.06%E -0.883%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.78%EV -8.60%E -3.27%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.83%EV -8.31%E -2.10%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-02 13:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.39%EV -2.06%E -0.883%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.78%EV -8.60%E -3.27%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.83%EV -8.31%E -2.10%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-02 13:35 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -5.42%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.16%EV -4.43%E -1.61%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -9.47%E -2.43%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.49%EV -5.42%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.57%EV -6.17%E -2.29%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.94%EV -9.47%E -2.43%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-02 12:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.49%EV -5.42%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.57%EV -6.17%E -2.29%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.94%EV -9.47%E -2.43%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-02 12:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.49%EV -5.42%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.57%EV -6.17%E -2.29%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.94%EV -9.47%E -2.43%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-02 12:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.49%EV -5.42%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.57%EV -6.17%E -2.29%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.94%EV -9.47%E -2.43%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-02 12:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.49%EV -5.42%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.57%EV -6.17%E -2.29%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.94%EV -9.47%E -2.43%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-02 12:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV -2.48%E -1.07%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.88%EV -9.65%E -3.71%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -9.47%E -2.43%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-02 13:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV -2.48%E -1.07%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.88%EV -9.65%E -3.71%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -9.47%E -2.43%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-02 13:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV -2.48%E -1.07%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.88%EV -9.65%E -3.71%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -9.47%E -2.43%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-02 13:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV -2.48%E -1.07%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.88%EV -9.65%E -3.71%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -9.47%E -2.43%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-02 13:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV -2.48%E -1.07%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.88%EV -9.65%E -3.71%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -9.47%E -2.43%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-02 13:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV -2.48%E -1.07%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.88%EV -9.65%E -3.71%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -9.47%E -2.43%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-02 13:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV -2.48%E -1.07%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.88%EV -9.65%E -3.71%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -9.47%E -2.43%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-02 13:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.22%EV -5.42%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.00%EV -7.91%E -2.98%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.78%EV -9.47%E -2.43%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-02 13:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.36%EV -5.42%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -6.17%E -2.29%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -10.63%E -2.76%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-02 12:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.01%EV -3.32%E -1.44%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.09%EV -11.38%E -4.46%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.90%EV -10.63%E -2.76%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-02 13:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.01%EV -3.32%E -1.44%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.09%EV -11.38%E -4.46%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.90%EV -10.63%E -2.76%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-02 13:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -7.52%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.57%EV -7.91%E -2.98%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.79%EV -10.63%E -2.76%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-02 13:50 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 41.70%EV -8.78%E -4.05%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.80%EV -9.65%E -3.71%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.50%EV -10.63%E -2.76%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-05-02 12:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.78%EV -7.52%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.04%EV -6.17%E -2.29%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -11.79%E -3.10%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-02 12:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.78%EV -7.52%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.04%EV -6.17%E -2.29%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -11.79%E -3.10%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-02 12:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.41%EV -5.42%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.66%EV -11.38%E -4.46%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.93%EV -11.79%E -3.10%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-02 13:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.41%EV -5.42%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.66%EV -11.38%E -4.46%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.93%EV -11.79%E -3.10%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-02 13:35 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.07%EV -11.73%E -5.58%K -10.66%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 32.79%EV -8.60%E -3.27%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.14%EV -23.40%E -7.09%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 15.9% | 2026-05-02 13:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.77% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.18% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.05% | 0.8% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.55% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.01% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.44% | 1.3% | 2026-05-02 13:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.87% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.22% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.91% | 1.4% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.87% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.22% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.91% | 1.4% | 2026-05-02 13:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.87% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.22% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.91% | 1.4% | 2026-05-02 13:56 |