The School of Odds

Swansea City v Birmingham City

2026-08-08 16:00 — EFL Cup

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (4 in analysis)

Option 1: Swansea City (Local)

Odds
2.7536.36%Min
2.8035.74%Mean
2.7536.36%Median
2.9533.90%Max
Consensus probabilities
32.00%3.125Min
32.74%3.054Max
32.34%3.092Mean
32.32%3.094Median
32.32%3.094IQM
32.34%3.092Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.95 under the IQM model: 32.32%

EV -4.66%Edge -1.58%Kelly -2.39%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Birmingham City (Visit)

Odds
2.2045.45%Min
2.2544.44%Mean
2.2344.84%Median
2.3143.29%Max
Consensus probabilities
40.07%2.496Min
41.04%2.437Max
40.51%2.469Mean
40.62%2.462Median
40.62%2.462IQM
40.55%2.466Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.31 under the IQM model: 40.62%

EV -6.16%Edge -2.67%Kelly -4.71%Growth +0.000%

Option 3: Draw

Odds
3.2530.77%Min
3.3729.68%Mean
3.3529.85%Median
3.5028.57%Max
Consensus probabilities
26.56%3.765Min
27.74%3.605Max
27.16%3.683Mean
27.06%3.695Median
27.06%3.695IQM
27.11%3.688Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.50 under the IQM model: 27.06%

EV -5.29%Edge -1.51%Kelly -2.11%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

BookmakerSwansea City (Local) ▼Birmingham City (Visit)DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet3.00I 33.33% NM 32.16%EV -3.05% E -1.02% K -1.52% G +0.000%2.35I 42.55% NM 41.05%EV -4.54% E -1.93% K -3.36% G +0.000%3.60I 27.78% NM 26.80%EV -2.58% E -0.717% K -0.992% G +0.000%3.7%2026-06-26 11:49
Betr (AU)2.95I 33.90% NM 32.00%EV -4.66% E -1.58% K -2.39% G +0.000%2.30I 43.48% NM 41.04%EV -6.57% E -2.86% K -5.05% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 26.97%EV -5.29% E -1.51% K -2.11% G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-30 09:39
1xBet2.91I 34.36% NM 32.20%EV -5.96% E -2.05% K -3.12% G +0.000%2.31I 43.29% NM 40.56%EV -6.16% E -2.67% K -4.71% G +0.000%3.44I 29.07% NM 27.24%EV -6.91% E -2.01% K -2.83% G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-04 08:24
FanDuel2.90I 34.48% NM 32.37%EV -6.28% E -2.17% K -3.31% G +0.000%2.30I 43.48% NM 40.81%EV -6.57% E -2.86% K -5.05% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 26.82%EV -5.29% E -1.51% K -2.11% G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-26 14:39
Paddy Power2.88I 34.72% NM 32.52%EV -6.93% E -2.40% K -3.68% G +0.000%2.30I 43.48% NM 40.72%EV -6.57% E -2.86% K -5.05% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 26.76%EV -5.29% E -1.51% K -2.11% G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-26 11:48
Sky Bet2.88I 34.72% NM 32.52%EV -6.93% E -2.40% K -3.68% G +0.000%2.30I 43.48% NM 40.72%EV -6.57% E -2.86% K -5.05% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 26.76%EV -5.29% E -1.51% K -2.11% G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-26 14:29
SportsBet2.87I 34.84% NM 32.60%EV -7.25% E -2.53% K -3.88% G +0.000%2.30I 43.48% NM 40.67%EV -6.57% E -2.86% K -5.05% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 26.73%EV -5.29% E -1.51% K -2.11% G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-26 11:49
LeoVegas2.80I 35.71% NM 32.72%EV -9.51% E -3.40% K -5.28% G +0.000%2.25I 44.44% NM 40.72%EV -8.60% E -3.82% K -6.88% G +0.000%3.45I 28.99% NM 26.56%EV -6.64% E -1.92% K -2.71% G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-02 10:20
William Hill2.80I 35.71% NM 32.20%EV -9.51% E -3.40% K -5.28% G +0.000%2.25I 44.44% NM 40.07%EV -8.60% E -3.82% K -6.88% G +0.000%3.25I 30.77% NM 27.74%EV -12.05% E -3.71% K -5.36% G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-30 14:00
888sport2.80I 35.71% NM 32.20%EV -9.51% E -3.40% K -5.28% G +0.000%2.25I 44.44% NM 40.07%EV -8.60% E -3.82% K -6.88% G +0.000%3.25I 30.77% NM 27.74%EV -12.05% E -3.71% K -5.36% G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-30 14:09
888sport (SE)2.80I 35.71% NM 32.20%EV -9.51% E -3.40% K -5.28% G +0.000%2.25I 44.44% NM 40.07%EV -8.60% E -3.82% K -6.88% G +0.000%3.25I 30.77% NM 27.74%EV -12.05% E -3.71% K -5.36% G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-30 14:09
Mr Green (SE)2.80I 35.71% NM 32.20%EV -9.51% E -3.40% K -5.28% G +0.000%2.25I 44.44% NM 40.07%EV -8.60% E -3.82% K -6.88% G +0.000%3.25I 30.77% NM 27.74%EV -12.05% E -3.71% K -5.36% G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-30 14:19
BoyleSports2.80I 35.71% NM 32.04%EV -9.51% E -3.40% K -5.28% G +0.000%2.20I 45.45% NM 40.78%EV -10.63% E -4.83% K -8.86% G +0.000%3.30I 30.30% NM 27.18%EV -10.70% E -3.24% K -4.65% G +0.000%11.5%2026-06-27 15:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.80I 35.71% NM 30.25%EV -9.51% E -3.40% K -5.28% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 40.34%EV -14.69% E -7.00% K -13.36% G +0.000%2.88I 34.72% NM 29.41%EV -22.06% E -7.66% K -11.74% G +0.000%18.1%2026-06-27 19:39
BetRivers2.75I 36.36% NM 32.74%EV -11.13% E -4.05% K -6.36% G +0.000%2.23I 44.84% NM 40.38%EV -9.41% E -4.22% K -7.65% G +0.000%3.35I 29.85% NM 26.88%EV -9.35% E -2.79% K -3.98% G +0.000%11.1%2026-06-30 05:19
betPARX2.75I 36.36% NM 32.74%EV -11.13% E -4.05% K -6.36% G +0.000%2.23I 44.84% NM 40.38%EV -9.41% E -4.22% K -7.65% G +0.000%3.35I 29.85% NM 26.88%EV -9.35% E -2.79% K -3.98% G +0.000%11.1%2026-06-30 08:09
Unibet (SE)2.75I 36.36% NM 32.74%EV -11.13% E -4.05% K -6.36% G +0.000%2.23I 44.84% NM 40.38%EV -9.41% E -4.22% K -7.65% G +0.000%3.35I 29.85% NM 26.88%EV -9.35% E -2.79% K -3.98% G +0.000%11.1%2026-06-30 08:20
LeoVegas (SE)2.75I 36.36% NM 32.74%EV -11.13% E -4.05% K -6.36% G +0.000%2.23I 44.84% NM 40.38%EV -9.41% E -4.22% K -7.65% G +0.000%3.35I 29.85% NM 26.88%EV -9.35% E -2.79% K -3.98% G +0.000%11.1%2026-06-30 08:30
Unibet (NL)2.75I 36.36% NM 32.74%EV -11.13% E -4.05% K -6.36% G +0.000%2.23I 44.84% NM 40.38%EV -9.41% E -4.22% K -7.65% G +0.000%3.35I 29.85% NM 26.88%EV -9.35% E -2.79% K -3.98% G +0.000%11.1%2026-06-30 08:29
Grosvenor2.75I 36.36% NM 32.74%EV -11.13% E -4.05% K -6.36% G +0.000%2.23I 44.84% NM 40.38%EV -9.41% E -4.22% K -7.65% G +0.000%3.35I 29.85% NM 26.88%EV -9.35% E -2.79% K -3.98% G +0.000%11.1%2026-06-30 08:29
LiveScore Bet2.75I 36.36% NM 32.74%EV -11.13% E -4.05% K -6.36% G +0.000%2.23I 44.84% NM 40.38%EV -9.41% E -4.22% K -7.65% G +0.000%3.35I 29.85% NM 26.88%EV -9.35% E -2.79% K -3.98% G +0.000%11.1%2026-06-30 08:29
Virgin Bet2.75I 36.36% NM 32.74%EV -11.13% E -4.05% K -6.36% G +0.000%2.23I 44.84% NM 40.38%EV -9.41% E -4.22% K -7.65% G +0.000%3.35I 29.85% NM 26.88%EV -9.35% E -2.79% K -3.98% G +0.000%11.1%2026-06-30 08:29
Casumo2.75I 36.36% NM 32.74%EV -11.13% E -4.05% K -6.36% G +0.000%2.23I 44.84% NM 40.38%EV -9.41% E -4.22% K -7.65% G +0.000%3.35I 29.85% NM 26.88%EV -9.35% E -2.79% K -3.98% G +0.000%11.1%2026-06-30 08:29
ATG (SE)2.75I 36.36% NM 32.74%EV -11.13% E -4.05% K -6.36% G +0.000%2.23I 44.84% NM 40.38%EV -9.41% E -4.22% K -7.65% G +0.000%3.35I 29.85% NM 26.88%EV -9.35% E -2.79% K -3.98% G +0.000%11.1%2026-06-30 08:29
Svenska Spel2.75I 36.36% NM 32.74%EV -11.13% E -4.05% K -6.36% G +0.000%2.23I 44.84% NM 40.38%EV -9.41% E -4.22% K -7.65% G +0.000%3.35I 29.85% NM 26.88%EV -9.35% E -2.79% K -3.98% G +0.000%11.1%2026-06-30 08:29
TABtouch2.75I 36.36% NM 32.74%EV -11.13% E -4.05% K -6.36% G +0.000%2.23I 44.84% NM 40.38%EV -9.41% E -4.22% K -7.65% G +0.000%3.35I 29.85% NM 26.88%EV -9.35% E -2.79% K -3.98% G +0.000%11.1%2026-06-30 08:39
Unibet2.75I 36.36% NM 32.74%EV -11.13% E -4.05% K -6.36% G +0.000%2.23I 44.84% NM 40.38%EV -9.41% E -4.22% K -7.65% G +0.000%3.35I 29.85% NM 26.88%EV -9.35% E -2.79% K -3.98% G +0.000%11.1%2026-06-30 08:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerSwansea City (Local)Birmingham City (Visit)DrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%1.04I 96.15%1.02I 98.04%190.3%2026-06-26 15:39
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%1.04I 96.15%1.02I 98.04%190.3%2026-06-26 15:39
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%1.04I 96.15%1.02I 98.04%190.3%2026-06-26 15:39