Language:English
Swansea City v Birmingham City
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Swansea City (Local)
Prediction 32.54%3.07fair odd
EV -3.99%
Edge -1.35%
Kelly -2.05%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.74%32.55%32.55%33.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.822.852.9537.04%35.40%35.09%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Birmingham City (Visit)
Prediction 39.83%2.51fair odd
EV -2.81%
Edge -1.15%
Kelly -1.95%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.44
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.30%39.80%39.80%40.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.322.332.4445.45%43.15%43.01%40.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.62%3.62fair odd
EV -2.49%
Edge -0.704%
Kelly -0.982%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.53
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.46%27.66%27.65%28.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.343.353.5332.26%29.96%29.85%28.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Swansea City (Local): 32.54%; Birmingham City (Visit): 39.83%; Draw: 27.62%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.62. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.53, with an expected value of -2.49%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.75%EV -3.99%E -1.35%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.86%EV -6.40%E -2.72%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -8.84%E -2.68%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-08 13:44 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -3.99%E -1.35%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.71%EV -8.39%E -3.65%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -6.08%E -1.79%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-08 02:40 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.82%EV -5.62%E -1.94%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.99%EV -5.20%E -2.19%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.19%EV -3.31%E -0.947%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-08 13:49 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.82%EV -5.62%E -1.94%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.99%EV -5.20%E -2.19%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.19%EV -3.31%E -0.947%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-08 13:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.65%EV -5.62%E -1.94%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.29%EV -6.40%E -2.72%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -3.31%E -0.947%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-08 06:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -5.62%E -1.94%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -8.39%E -3.65%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -3.31%E -0.947%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-08 07:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -5.62%E -1.94%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.64%EV -6.40%E -2.72%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -8.84%E -2.68%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-08 13:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -5.62%E -1.94%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -8.39%E -3.65%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -6.08%E -1.79%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-08 02:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -5.62%E -1.94%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -8.39%E -3.65%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -6.08%E -1.79%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-08 02:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -5.62%E -1.94%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -8.39%E -3.65%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -6.08%E -1.79%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-08 07:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -5.62%E -1.94%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -8.39%E -3.65%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -8.84%E -2.68%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-06 11:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.11%EV -6.27%E -2.18%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.08%EV -2.81%E -1.15%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 3.43I 29.15%NM 27.80%EV -5.25%E -1.53%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-08 13:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.55%EV -6.27%E -2.18%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.89%EV -6.40%E -2.72%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -6.08%E -1.79%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-08 13:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.11%EV -6.27%E -2.18%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.86%EV -7.59%E -3.27%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -8.84%E -2.68%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-08 13:34 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.86I 34.97%NM 32.59%EV -6.92%E -2.42%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 2.39I 41.84%NM 39.00%EV -4.80%E -2.01%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 28.42%EV -9.39%E -2.86%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-08 13:54 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -7.25%E -2.54%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.06%EV -6.40%E -2.72%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -3.31%E -0.947%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-08 11:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.53%EV -7.25%E -2.54%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.79%EV -7.19%E -3.09%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.68%EV -7.46%E -2.23%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-08 13:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.53%EV -7.25%E -2.54%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.79%EV -7.19%E -3.09%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.68%EV -7.46%E -2.23%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-08 13:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.53%EV -7.25%E -2.54%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.79%EV -7.19%E -3.09%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.68%EV -7.46%E -2.23%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-08 13:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.53%EV -7.25%E -2.54%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.79%EV -7.19%E -3.09%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.68%EV -7.46%E -2.23%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-08 13:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.53%EV -7.25%E -2.54%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.79%EV -7.19%E -3.09%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.68%EV -7.46%E -2.23%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-08 13:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.53%EV -7.25%E -2.54%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.79%EV -7.19%E -3.09%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.68%EV -7.46%E -2.23%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-08 13:49 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.53%EV -7.25%E -2.54%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.79%EV -7.19%E -3.09%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.68%EV -7.46%E -2.23%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-08 13:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.53%EV -7.25%E -2.54%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.79%EV -7.19%E -3.09%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.68%EV -7.46%E -2.23%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-08 13:49 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.53%EV -7.25%E -2.54%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.79%EV -7.19%E -3.09%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.68%EV -7.46%E -2.23%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-08 13:49 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.53%EV -7.25%E -2.54%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.79%EV -7.19%E -3.09%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.68%EV -7.46%E -2.23%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-08 13:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.50%EV -7.25%E -2.54%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.27%EV -8.39%E -3.65%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -6.08%E -1.79%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-08 13:54 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.23%EV -7.25%E -2.54%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.94%EV -8.39%E -3.65%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -8.84%E -2.68%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-08 13:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -7.25%E -2.54%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -10.38%E -4.61%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.29%EV -7.46%E -2.23%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-08 13:39 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.12%EV -8.22%E -2.92%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 2.31I 43.29%NM 40.43%EV -7.99%E -3.46%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 3.53I 28.33%NM 26.46%EV -2.49%E -0.704%K -0.982%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-08 13:49 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -8.88%E -3.17%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -8.39%E -3.65%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -8.84%E -2.68%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-08 13:34 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -8.88%E -3.17%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -8.39%E -3.65%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -8.84%E -2.68%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-08 13:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -8.88%E -3.17%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.37%EV -8.39%E -3.65%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -11.60%E -3.63%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-08 13:44 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.76I 36.23%NM 33.01%EV -10.18%E -3.69%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 39.79%EV -8.79%E -3.84%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.20%EV -7.46%E -2.23%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-08 13:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.76I 36.23%NM 33.01%EV -10.18%E -3.69%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 39.79%EV -8.79%E -3.84%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.20%EV -7.46%E -2.23%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-08 13:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%EV -10.50%E -3.82%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -4.41%E -1.84%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -10.22%E -3.14%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-08 13:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%EV -10.50%E -3.82%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -4.41%E -1.84%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -10.22%E -3.14%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-08 13:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%EV -10.50%E -3.82%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -4.41%E -1.84%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -10.22%E -3.14%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-08 13:44 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%EV -10.50%E -3.82%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -4.41%E -1.84%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -10.22%E -3.14%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-08 13:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.99%EV -10.50%E -3.82%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.32%EV -10.38%E -4.61%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -6.08%E -1.79%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-08 13:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -10.50%E -3.82%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -10.38%E -4.61%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -8.84%E -2.68%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-08 13:49 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.16%EV -10.50%E -3.82%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.31%EV -10.38%E -4.61%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -14.36%E -4.63%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-08 13:44 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -12.13%E -4.49%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.56%EV -6.40%E -2.72%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.88%EV -10.22%E -3.14%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-08 13:44 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -12.13%E -4.49%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.46%EV -12.37%E -5.62%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.57%EV -7.46%E -2.23%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-08 13:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.85%EV -12.13%E -4.49%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.43%EV -10.38%E -4.61%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.72%EV -11.60%E -3.63%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-08-08 13:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.74%EV -12.13%E -4.49%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 39.64%EV -11.18%E -5.01%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.62%EV -11.60%E -3.63%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-08 13:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.74%EV -12.13%E -4.49%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 39.64%EV -11.18%E -5.01%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.62%EV -11.60%E -3.63%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-08 13:49 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.74%EV -12.13%E -4.49%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 39.64%EV -11.18%E -5.01%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.62%EV -11.60%E -3.63%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-08 13:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.58% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.43% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99% | 0.6% | 2026-08-08 13:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.58% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.43% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99% | 0.6% | 2026-08-08 13:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.48% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.62% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.90% | 1.0% | 2026-08-08 13:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.48% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.62% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.90% | 1.0% | 2026-08-08 13:55 |
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