Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Millwall v Newcastle United

2026-09-08 19:00 UTC — EFL Cup

Head to Head

44 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Millwall (Local)

Prediction 17.77%5.63fair odd
EV +4.83%
Edge +0.819%
Kelly +0.986%
Growth +0.048%

assuming max odds 5.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.96%17.92%17.98%20.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.934.905.9023.81%20.29%20.41%16.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Newcastle United (Visit)

Prediction 59.24%1.69fair odd
EV -0.483%
Edge -0.287%
Kelly -0.710%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.15%58.97%59.12%60.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.601.601.6867.57%62.41%62.50%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.00%4.35fair odd
EV -1.12%
Edge -0.261%
Kelly -0.340%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.34%23.11%22.90%24.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.923.884.3027.78%25.51%25.81%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Millwall (Local): 17.77%; Newcastle United (Visit): 59.24%; Draw: 23.00%. For Millwall (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.63. 3 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 5.90, producing a positive expected value of +4.83%.

Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betsson🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 15.96%EV +4.83%E +0.819%K +0.986%G +0.048%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.59%EV -6.41%E -4.05%K -11.05%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%EV -11.47%E -2.98%K -4.02%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 16:55
NordicBet🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 15.96%EV +4.83%E +0.819%K +0.986%G +0.048%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.59%EV -6.41%E -4.05%K -11.05%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%EV -11.47%E -2.98%K -4.02%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 16:53
Marathon Bet🎯5.65I 17.70%NM 17.04%EV +0.391%E +0.069%K +0.084%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.56%EV -5.81%E -3.66%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.39%EV -1.12%E -0.261%K -0.340%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-03 16:55
Pinnacle🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.83%EV -0.497%E -0.089%K -0.108%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.79%EV -8.18%E -5.28%K -14.88%G +0.000%4.21I 23.75%NM 22.38%EV -3.19%E -0.758%K -0.994%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-03 17:10
1xBet🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.56%EV -2.27%E -0.414%K -0.505%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.98%EV -4.63%E -2.88%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.46%EV -1.12%E -0.261%K -0.340%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-03 17:00
Tipico (DE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -2.27%E -0.414%K -0.505%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.49%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.28%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -14.92%E -4.03%K -5.53%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-03 16:45
BoyleSports🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -2.27%E -0.414%K -0.505%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -11.15%E -7.43%K -22.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -8.02%E -2.00%K -2.67%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-03 17:00
Coolbet🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.08%EV -6.72%E -1.28%K -1.58%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.32%EV -5.22%E -3.26%K -8.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.60%EV -3.42%E -0.814%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-03 17:00
Betr (AU)🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.98%EV -6.72%E -1.28%K -1.58%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.00%EV -5.22%E -3.26%K -8.70%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%EV -5.72%E -1.40%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-03 17:00
betano_uk🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.44%EV -6.72%E -1.28%K -1.58%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.08%EV -8.18%E -5.28%K -14.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -10.32%E -2.65%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-03 17:00
Bet Victor🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.44%EV -6.72%E -1.28%K -1.58%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.08%EV -8.18%E -5.28%K -14.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -10.32%E -2.65%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-03 16:59
FanDuel🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.34%EV -9.38%E -1.84%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 58.84%EV -5.81%E -3.66%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -5.72%E -1.40%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-03 14:00
BetMGM🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.95%EV -11.16%E -2.23%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.49%EV -4.04%E -2.49%K -6.51%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.56%EV -3.42%E -0.814%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 17:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -11.16%E -2.23%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.79%EV -5.22%E -3.26%K -8.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -3.42%E -0.814%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 19:05
Coral🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -11.16%E -2.23%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.79%EV -5.22%E -3.26%K -8.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -3.42%E -0.814%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 19:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -11.16%E -2.23%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.84%EV -4.04%E -2.49%K -6.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -8.02%E -2.00%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-03 14:00
SportsBet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -11.16%E -2.23%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.84%EV -4.04%E -2.49%K -6.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -8.02%E -2.00%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-03 16:55
William Hill🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.29%EV -11.16%E -2.23%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.26%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.28%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.45%EV -10.32%E -2.65%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-03 17:05
PlayUp🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.99%EV -11.16%E -2.23%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 58.03%EV -8.18%E -5.28%K -14.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.98%EV -13.77%E -3.67%K -5.01%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-03 17:00
888sport🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -11.16%E -2.23%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.53%EV -9.37%E -6.12%K -17.68%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -12.62%E -3.32%K -4.51%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-03 17:00
888sport (SE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -11.16%E -2.23%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.53%EV -9.37%E -6.12%K -17.68%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -12.62%E -3.32%K -4.51%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-03 17:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -11.16%E -2.23%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.53%EV -9.37%E -6.12%K -17.68%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -12.62%E -3.32%K -4.51%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-03 17:00
NetBet (FR)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.16%EV -14.71%E -3.07%K -3.87%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 58.90%EV -12.33%E -8.33%K -25.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.94%EV -12.62%E -3.32%K -4.51%G +0.000%14.7%2026-09-03 19:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.75%EV -15.60%E -3.28%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.91%EV -4.04%E -2.49%K -6.51%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -3.42%E -0.814%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-03 17:00
Neds🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.75%EV -15.60%E -3.28%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.91%EV -4.04%E -2.49%K -6.51%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -3.42%E -0.814%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-03 17:00
Paddy Power🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -15.60%E -3.28%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.58%EV -5.22%E -3.26%K -8.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -8.02%E -2.00%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 19:03
Svenska Spel🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.86%EV -16.49%E -3.51%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.57%EV -0.483%E -0.287%K -0.710%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -12.62%E -3.32%K -4.51%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-03 15:45
betPARX🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.86%EV -16.49%E -3.51%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.57%EV -0.483%E -0.287%K -0.710%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -12.62%E -3.32%K -4.51%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-03 16:25
Unibet (NL)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.86%EV -16.49%E -3.51%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.57%EV -0.483%E -0.287%K -0.710%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -12.62%E -3.32%K -4.51%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-03 16:40
Unibet (SE)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.86%EV -16.49%E -3.51%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.57%EV -0.483%E -0.287%K -0.710%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -12.62%E -3.32%K -4.51%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-03 16:40
Grosvenor🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.86%EV -16.49%E -3.51%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.57%EV -0.483%E -0.287%K -0.710%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -12.62%E -3.32%K -4.51%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-03 16:44
Casumo🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.86%EV -16.49%E -3.51%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.57%EV -0.483%E -0.287%K -0.710%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -12.62%E -3.32%K -4.51%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-03 16:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.86%EV -16.49%E -3.51%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.57%EV -0.483%E -0.287%K -0.710%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -12.62%E -3.32%K -4.51%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-03 16:44
ATG (SE)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.86%EV -16.49%E -3.51%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.57%EV -0.483%E -0.287%K -0.710%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -12.62%E -3.32%K -4.51%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-03 16:44
TABtouch🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.86%EV -16.49%E -3.51%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.57%EV -0.483%E -0.287%K -0.710%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -12.62%E -3.32%K -4.51%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-03 16:50
Unibet🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.86%EV -16.49%E -3.51%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.57%EV -0.483%E -0.287%K -0.710%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -12.62%E -3.32%K -4.51%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-03 17:15
Unibet (UK)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.04%EV -18.27%E -3.97%K -5.07%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.91%EV -4.04%E -2.49%K -6.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -8.02%E -2.00%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-03 15:50
LeoVegas🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.19%EV -20.04%E -4.45%K -5.73%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.80%EV -5.22%E -3.26%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.01%EV -9.17%E -2.32%K -3.11%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-03 17:19
LiveScore Bet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.18%EV -21.82%E -4.96%K -6.42%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.15%EV -4.63%E -2.88%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -17.22%E -4.78%K -6.62%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-03 16:35
Virgin Bet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.18%EV -21.82%E -4.96%K -6.42%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.15%EV -4.63%E -2.88%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -17.22%E -4.78%K -6.62%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-03 16:39
PMU (FR)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.18%EV -21.82%E -4.96%K -6.42%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.15%EV -4.63%E -2.88%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -17.22%E -4.78%K -6.62%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-03 16:39
Sky Bet🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.01%EV -23.06%E -5.33%K -6.93%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 55.91%EV -8.18%E -5.28%K -14.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.07%EV -17.22%E -4.78%K -6.62%G +0.000%15.4%2026-09-03 13:59
Winamax (DE)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 20.85%EV -23.60%E -5.49%K -7.15%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 56.74%EV -6.41%E -4.05%K -11.05%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%EV -8.02%E -2.00%K -2.67%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-03 13:59
Winamax (FR)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 20.97%EV -25.37%E -6.04%K -7.93%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 56.45%EV -7.59%E -4.87%K -13.56%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.58%EV -10.32%E -2.65%K -3.56%G +0.000%13.6%2026-09-03 13:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Arbitrage (40 combinations) +0.27%Betsson 5.90 (17.0%) / Svenska Spel 1.68 (59.7%) / Marathon Bet 4.30 (23.3%)Show all 40 combinations
Millwall (Local)Newcastle United (Visit)DrawMargin
Betsson🎯 5.90 (17.0%)Svenska Spel🎯 1.68 (59.7%)1xBet🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.272%
Betsson🎯 5.90 (17.0%)Svenska Spel🎯 1.68 (59.7%)Marathon Bet🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.272%
Betsson🎯 5.90 (17.0%)betPARX🎯 1.68 (59.7%)1xBet🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.272%
Betsson🎯 5.90 (17.0%)betPARX🎯 1.68 (59.7%)Marathon Bet🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.272%
Betsson🎯 5.90 (17.0%)Unibet (NL)🎯 1.68 (59.7%)1xBet🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.272%
Betsson🎯 5.90 (17.0%)Unibet (NL)🎯 1.68 (59.7%)Marathon Bet🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.272%
Betsson🎯 5.90 (17.0%)Unibet (SE)🎯 1.68 (59.7%)1xBet🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.272%
Betsson🎯 5.90 (17.0%)Unibet (SE)🎯 1.68 (59.7%)Marathon Bet🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.272%
Betsson🎯 5.90 (17.0%)Grosvenor🎯 1.68 (59.7%)1xBet🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.272%
Betsson🎯 5.90 (17.0%)Grosvenor🎯 1.68 (59.7%)Marathon Bet🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.272%
Betsson🎯 5.90 (17.0%)Casumo🎯 1.68 (59.7%)1xBet🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.272%
Betsson🎯 5.90 (17.0%)Casumo🎯 1.68 (59.7%)Marathon Bet🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.272%
Betsson🎯 5.90 (17.0%)LeoVegas (SE)🎯 1.68 (59.7%)1xBet🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.272%
Betsson🎯 5.90 (17.0%)LeoVegas (SE)🎯 1.68 (59.7%)Marathon Bet🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.272%
Betsson🎯 5.90 (17.0%)ATG (SE)🎯 1.68 (59.7%)1xBet🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.272%
Betsson🎯 5.90 (17.0%)ATG (SE)🎯 1.68 (59.7%)Marathon Bet🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.272%
Betsson🎯 5.90 (17.0%)TABtouch🎯 1.68 (59.7%)1xBet🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.272%
Betsson🎯 5.90 (17.0%)TABtouch🎯 1.68 (59.7%)Marathon Bet🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.272%
Betsson🎯 5.90 (17.0%)Unibet🎯 1.68 (59.7%)1xBet🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.272%
Betsson🎯 5.90 (17.0%)Unibet🎯 1.68 (59.7%)Marathon Bet🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.272%
NordicBet🎯 5.90 (17.0%)Svenska Spel🎯 1.68 (59.7%)1xBet🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.272%
NordicBet🎯 5.90 (17.0%)Svenska Spel🎯 1.68 (59.7%)Marathon Bet🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.272%
NordicBet🎯 5.90 (17.0%)betPARX🎯 1.68 (59.7%)1xBet🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.272%
NordicBet🎯 5.90 (17.0%)betPARX🎯 1.68 (59.7%)Marathon Bet🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.272%
NordicBet🎯 5.90 (17.0%)Unibet (NL)🎯 1.68 (59.7%)1xBet🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.272%
NordicBet🎯 5.90 (17.0%)Unibet (NL)🎯 1.68 (59.7%)Marathon Bet🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.272%
NordicBet🎯 5.90 (17.0%)Unibet (SE)🎯 1.68 (59.7%)1xBet🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.272%
NordicBet🎯 5.90 (17.0%)Unibet (SE)🎯 1.68 (59.7%)Marathon Bet🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.272%
NordicBet🎯 5.90 (17.0%)Grosvenor🎯 1.68 (59.7%)1xBet🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.272%
NordicBet🎯 5.90 (17.0%)Grosvenor🎯 1.68 (59.7%)Marathon Bet🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.272%
NordicBet🎯 5.90 (17.0%)Casumo🎯 1.68 (59.7%)1xBet🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.272%
NordicBet🎯 5.90 (17.0%)Casumo🎯 1.68 (59.7%)Marathon Bet🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.272%
NordicBet🎯 5.90 (17.0%)LeoVegas (SE)🎯 1.68 (59.7%)1xBet🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.272%
NordicBet🎯 5.90 (17.0%)LeoVegas (SE)🎯 1.68 (59.7%)Marathon Bet🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.272%
NordicBet🎯 5.90 (17.0%)ATG (SE)🎯 1.68 (59.7%)1xBet🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.272%
NordicBet🎯 5.90 (17.0%)ATG (SE)🎯 1.68 (59.7%)Marathon Bet🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.272%
NordicBet🎯 5.90 (17.0%)TABtouch🎯 1.68 (59.7%)1xBet🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.272%
NordicBet🎯 5.90 (17.0%)TABtouch🎯 1.68 (59.7%)Marathon Bet🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.272%
NordicBet🎯 5.90 (17.0%)Unibet🎯 1.68 (59.7%)1xBet🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.272%
NordicBet🎯 5.90 (17.0%)Unibet🎯 1.68 (59.7%)Marathon Bet🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.272%