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Millwall v Newcastle United
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Millwall (Local)
Predicción 11.55%8.66momio equitativo
EV +15.50%
Ventaja +1.55%
Kelly +1.72%
Crecimiento +0.267%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 10.00
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
9.65%11.57%11.52%13.46%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
6.758.268.2510.0014.81%12.10%12.12%10.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Newcastle United (Visitante)
Predicción 70.53%1.42momio equitativo
EV -4.08%
Ventaja -3.00%
Kelly -11.34%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.36
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
66.79%70.35%70.54%74.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.231.311.301.3681.30%76.48%76.92%73.53%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 17.92%5.58momio equitativo
EV +7.53%
Ventaja +1.25%
Kelly +1.51%
Crecimiento +0.113%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.00
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.09%18.08%17.95%19.75%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.605.255.266.0021.74%19.05%19.01%16.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Millwall (Local): 11.55%; Newcastle United (Visitante): 70.53%; Empate: 17.92%. Para Millwall (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 8.66. 17 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 10.00, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +15.50%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (51 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.65%EV +15.50%E +1.55%K +1.72%G +0.267% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.26%EV -8.31%E -6.39%K -27.71%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.09%EV +7.53%E +1.25%K +1.51%G +0.113% | 3.6% | 2026-09-08 18:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.65%EV +15.50%E +1.55%K +1.72%G +0.267% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.26%EV -8.31%E -6.39%K -27.71%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.09%EV +7.53%E +1.25%K +1.51%G +0.113% | 3.6% | 2026-09-08 18:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 9.70I 10.31%NM 9.70%EV +12.04%E +1.24%K +1.38%G +0.167% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.71%EV -6.20%E -4.66%K -18.78%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -13.98%E -2.91%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-08 18:55 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.97%EV +9.73%E +1.02%K +1.14%G +0.111% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.82%EV -8.31%E -6.39%K -27.71%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.21%EV -1.43%E -0.260%K -0.318%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-08 18:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.97%EV +9.73%E +1.02%K +1.14%G +0.111% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.82%EV -8.31%E -6.39%K -27.71%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.21%EV -1.43%E -0.260%K -0.318%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-08 18:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 9.30I 10.75%NM 10.12%EV +7.42%E +0.798%K +0.894%G +0.066% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.26%EV -5.49%E -4.10%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.61%EV -13.98%E -2.91%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-08 18:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.70%EV +3.95%E +0.439%K +0.494%G +0.020% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.31%EV -4.79%E -3.55%K -13.68%G +0.000% | 5.35I 18.69%NM 17.99%EV -4.12%E -0.770%K -0.947%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-08 18:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV +3.95%E +0.439%K +0.494%G +0.020% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.95%EV -9.72%E -7.60%K -34.73%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV +0.361%E +0.064%K +0.078%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-08 18:54 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV +3.95%E +0.439%K +0.494%G +0.020% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.95%EV -9.72%E -7.60%K -34.73%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV +0.361%E +0.064%K +0.078%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-08 18:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV +3.95%E +0.439%K +0.494%G +0.020% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.95%EV -9.72%E -7.60%K -34.73%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV +0.361%E +0.064%K +0.078%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-08 18:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV +3.95%E +0.439%K +0.494%G +0.020% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.95%EV -9.72%E -7.60%K -34.73%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV +0.361%E +0.064%K +0.078%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-08 18:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV +3.95%E +0.439%K +0.494%G +0.020% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.95%EV -9.72%E -7.60%K -34.73%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV +0.361%E +0.064%K +0.078%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-08 18:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV +3.95%E +0.439%K +0.494%G +0.020% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.95%EV -9.72%E -7.60%K -34.73%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV +0.361%E +0.064%K +0.078%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-08 18:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV +3.95%E +0.439%K +0.494%G +0.020% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.03%EV -9.72%E -7.60%K -34.73%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.73%EV -6.81%E -1.31%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-08 18:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 8.80I 11.36%NM 10.97%EV +1.64%E +0.187%K +0.211%G +0.003% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.98%EV -4.08%E -3.00%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 5.35I 18.69%NM 18.04%EV -4.12%E -0.770%K -0.947%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-08 18:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.82%EV +1.06%E +0.122%K +0.137%G +0.001% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.16%EV -6.20%E -4.66%K -18.78%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.03%EV -5.91%E -1.13%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-08 18:54 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.76%EV +1.06%E +0.122%K +0.137%G +0.001% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.31%EV -6.90%E -5.23%K -21.57%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.93%EV -5.91%E -1.13%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-08 18:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 8.58I 11.66%NM 11.16%EV -0.899%E -0.105%K -0.119%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.94%EV -4.79%E -3.55%K -13.68%G +0.000% | 5.35I 18.69%NM 17.90%EV -4.12%E -0.770%K -0.947%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-08 18:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.10%EV -1.82%E -0.214%K -0.243%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.93%EV -6.20%E -4.66%K -18.78%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -5.91%E -1.13%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-08 18:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -1.82%E -0.214%K -0.243%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.30%EV -6.20%E -4.66%K -18.78%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -10.39%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-08 18:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.79%EV -1.82%E -0.214%K -0.243%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.22%EV -10.43%E -8.21%K -38.63%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV -3.22%E -0.597%K -0.733%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-08 18:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.79%EV -1.82%E -0.214%K -0.243%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.22%EV -10.43%E -8.21%K -38.63%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV -3.22%E -0.597%K -0.733%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-08 18:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.65%EV -1.82%E -0.214%K -0.243%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.66%EV -8.31%E -6.39%K -27.71%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.69%EV -17.56%E -3.82%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-08 18:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 8.30I 12.05%NM 11.46%EV -4.13%E -0.498%K -0.566%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.46%EV -4.79%E -3.55%K -13.68%G +0.000% | 5.26I 19.01%NM 18.08%EV -5.73%E -1.09%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-08 18:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 8.30I 12.05%NM 11.46%EV -4.13%E -0.498%K -0.566%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.46%EV -4.79%E -3.55%K -13.68%G +0.000% | 5.26I 19.01%NM 18.08%EV -5.73%E -1.09%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-08 18:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.36%EV -4.71%E -0.571%K -0.650%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.97%EV -6.90%E -5.23%K -21.57%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.68%EV -5.02%E -0.946%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-08 18:49 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.87%EV -7.60%E -0.950%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.86%EV -5.49%E -4.10%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.27%EV -1.43%E -0.260%K -0.318%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-08 18:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV -7.60%E -0.950%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.02%EV -6.20%E -4.66%K -18.78%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -1.43%E -0.260%K -0.318%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-08 18:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV -7.60%E -0.950%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.02%EV -6.20%E -4.66%K -18.78%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -1.43%E -0.260%K -0.318%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-08 18:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -7.60%E -0.950%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.88%EV -7.61%E -5.81%K -24.54%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.52%EV -5.02%E -0.946%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-08 18:49 |
| Bovada🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.50%EV -7.60%E -0.950%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.80%EV -8.31%E -6.39%K -27.71%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.70%EV -6.81%E -1.31%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-08 18:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.06%EV -7.60%E -0.950%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 71.93%EV -13.25%E -10.77%K -57.61%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.01%EV -6.81%E -1.31%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-09-08 18:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.06%EV -7.60%E -0.950%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 71.93%EV -13.25%E -10.77%K -57.61%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.01%EV -6.81%E -1.31%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-09-08 18:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.06%EV -7.60%E -0.950%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 71.93%EV -13.25%E -10.77%K -57.61%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.01%EV -6.81%E -1.31%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-09-08 18:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.04%EV -10.49%E -1.35%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.68%EV -6.90%E -5.23%K -21.57%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.28%EV -3.22%E -0.597%K -0.733%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-08 18:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.04%EV -10.49%E -1.35%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.68%EV -6.90%E -5.23%K -21.57%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.28%EV -3.22%E -0.597%K -0.733%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-08 18:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV -13.37%E -1.78%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.76%EV -6.20%E -4.66%K -18.78%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.05%EV -13.98%E -2.91%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-08 18:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV -13.37%E -1.78%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.76%EV -6.20%E -4.66%K -18.78%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.05%EV -13.98%E -2.91%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-08 18:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV -13.37%E -1.78%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.76%EV -6.20%E -4.66%K -18.78%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.05%EV -13.98%E -2.91%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-08 18:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -13.37%E -1.78%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.62%EV -6.20%E -4.66%K -18.78%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.21%EV -14.87%E -3.13%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-08 18:54 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.16%EV -13.37%E -1.78%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 69.61%EV -7.61%E -5.81%K -24.54%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.24%EV -10.39%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-08 18:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.13%EV -13.37%E -1.78%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 70.54%EV -9.02%E -6.99%K -31.10%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.33%EV -5.91%E -1.13%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-08 18:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.03%EV -13.37%E -1.78%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%EV -9.02%E -6.99%K -31.10%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.04%EV -10.39%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-08 18:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.03%EV -13.37%E -1.78%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%EV -9.02%E -6.99%K -31.10%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.04%EV -10.39%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-08 18:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.94%EV -13.37%E -1.78%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.41%EV -9.02%E -6.99%K -31.10%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.65%EV -13.98%E -2.91%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-08 18:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.67%EV -16.26%E -2.24%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.64%EV -8.31%E -6.39%K -27.71%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -1.43%E -0.260%K -0.318%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-08 18:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.39%EV -16.26%E -2.24%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.64%EV -9.02%E -6.99%K -31.10%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.97%EV -10.39%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-08 18:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV -19.15%E -2.74%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.53%EV -4.79%E -3.55%K -13.68%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.07%EV -1.43%E -0.260%K -0.318%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-08 18:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.91%EV -19.15%E -2.74%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 70.04%EV -9.02%E -6.99%K -31.10%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.05%EV -5.02%E -0.946%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-08 18:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.75%EV -19.15%E -2.74%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.66%EV -8.31%E -6.39%K -27.71%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.59%EV -13.98%E -2.91%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-08 18:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.46%EV -22.04%E -3.26%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.79%EV -4.08%E -3.00%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -17.56%E -3.82%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-08 18:29 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (4)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 9.80I 10.20%NM 10.15% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 72.09% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.76% | 0.5% | 2026-09-08 18:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 9.60I 10.42%NM 10.34% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.93% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.73% | 0.7% | 2026-09-08 18:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 9.60I 10.42%NM 10.34% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.93% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.73% | 0.7% | 2026-09-08 18:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 9.60I 10.42%NM 10.34% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.93% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.73% | 0.7% | 2026-09-08 18:55 |