Language:English
Peñarol Montevideo v Platense
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Peñarol Montevideo (Local)
Prediction 46.85%2.13fair odd
EV -3.96%
Edge -1.93%
Kelly -3.77%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.42%47.17%46.78%50.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.921.922.0557.47%52.17%51.95%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Platense (Visit)
Prediction 21.09%4.74fair odd
EV +7.57%
Edge +1.48%
Kelly +1.85%
Growth +0.140%
assuming max odds 5.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.12%20.89%21.13%22.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.054.584.555.1024.69%21.86%21.98%19.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 32.06%3.12fair odd
EV +4.20%
Edge +1.29%
Kelly +1.87%
Growth +0.078%
assuming max odds 3.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.94%31.94%32.09%32.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.632.932.913.2538.02%34.08%34.36%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Peñarol Montevideo (Local): 46.85%; Platense (Visit): 21.09%; Draw: 32.06%. For Platense (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.74. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.57%.
Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.70%EV -9.59%E -4.97%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.19%EV +7.57%E +1.48%K +1.85%G +0.140% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.11%EV +4.20%E +1.29%K +1.87%G +0.078% | 2.2% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.30%EV -6.77%E -3.40%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 4.97I 20.12%NM 19.34%EV +4.82%E +0.971%K +1.22%G +0.059% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 32.36%EV -4.78%E -1.61%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.63%EV -12.40%E -6.63%K -14.25%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.32%EV +3.35%E +0.683%K +0.858%G +0.029% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.05%EV +0.994%E +0.316%K +0.462%G +0.005% | 5.6% | 2026-04-17 00:23 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 50.52%EV -12.86%E -6.92%K -14.96%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.18%EV +3.35%E +0.683%K +0.858%G +0.029% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -0.609%E -0.196%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -13.33%E -7.21%K -15.69%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.12%EV +3.35%E +0.683%K +0.858%G +0.029% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -0.609%E -0.196%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -13.33%E -7.21%K -15.69%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.12%EV +3.35%E +0.683%K +0.858%G +0.029% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -0.609%E -0.196%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.94%EV -10.52%E -5.51%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 4.88I 20.49%NM 19.16%EV +2.93%E +0.600%K +0.754%G +0.022% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 31.90%EV -6.06%E -2.07%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.01I 49.75%NM 48.47%EV -5.84%E -2.90%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 4.87I 20.53%NM 20.00%EV +2.71%E +0.557%K +0.702%G +0.019% | 3.09I 32.36%NM 31.53%EV -0.930%E -0.301%K -0.445%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.72%EV -14.27%E -7.80%K -17.19%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV +1.24%E +0.258%K +0.326%G +0.004% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -0.609%E -0.196%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.01%EV -8.65%E -4.44%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.71%EV +0.184%E +0.039%K +0.049%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.28%EV -7.02%E -2.42%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.43%EV -8.65%E -4.44%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.09%EV -0.871%E -0.185%K -0.235%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.48%EV -3.82%E -1.27%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-17 00:28 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.59%EV -11.93%E -6.34%K -13.55%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.84%EV -0.871%E -0.185%K -0.235%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.57%EV -2.21%E -0.725%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.40%EV -10.05%E -5.24%K -10.93%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.77%EV -0.871%E -0.185%K -0.235%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.83%EV -6.38%E -2.18%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.43%EV -15.68%E -8.71%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.31%EV -0.871%E -0.185%K -0.235%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -3.82%E -1.27%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.43%EV -15.68%E -8.71%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.31%EV -0.871%E -0.185%K -0.235%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -3.82%E -1.27%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.32%EV -8.65%E -4.44%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.27%EV -1.93%E -0.414%K -0.527%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.41%EV -3.82%E -1.27%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.16%EV -8.65%E -4.44%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.99%EV -2.98%E -0.648%K -0.828%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -10.23%E -3.65%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.35%EV -10.99%E -5.78%K -12.21%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.97%EV -2.98%E -0.648%K -0.828%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.68%EV -7.02%E -2.42%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.50%EV -16.61%E -9.33%K -21.30%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.54%EV -2.98%E -0.648%K -0.828%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -3.82%E -1.27%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 50.55%EV -18.49%E -10.62%K -24.98%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.12%EV -2.98%E -0.648%K -0.828%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.33%EV -7.02%E -2.42%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.37%E -2.66%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.15%EV -5.09%E -1.13%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.73%EV -3.82%E -1.27%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.37%E -2.66%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.15%EV -5.09%E -1.13%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.73%EV -3.82%E -1.27%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.75%EV -8.65%E -4.44%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -5.09%E -1.13%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.56%EV -5.42%E -1.84%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.49%EV -8.65%E -4.44%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.58%EV -5.09%E -1.13%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.93%EV -7.02%E -2.42%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.49%EV -8.65%E -4.44%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.58%EV -5.09%E -1.13%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.93%EV -7.02%E -2.42%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.90%EV -10.52%E -5.51%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.33%EV -5.09%E -1.13%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.77%EV -7.66%E -2.66%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.47%EV -10.52%E -5.51%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.15%EV -5.09%E -1.13%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.38%EV -10.23%E -3.65%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.47%EV -10.52%E -5.51%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.15%EV -5.09%E -1.13%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.38%EV -10.23%E -3.65%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.47%EV -10.52%E -5.51%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.15%EV -5.09%E -1.13%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.38%EV -10.23%E -3.65%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.39%EV -3.96%E -1.93%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.37%EV -6.14%E -1.38%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.24%EV -5.42%E -1.84%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-17 00:28 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.64%EV -6.31%E -3.15%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -7.20%E -1.64%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.16%EV -7.02%E -2.42%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%EV -8.65%E -4.44%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.17%EV -8.67%E -2.00%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.83%EV -7.66%E -2.66%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%EV -8.65%E -4.44%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.17%EV -8.67%E -2.00%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.83%EV -7.66%E -2.66%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 47.20%EV -14.27%E -7.80%K -17.19%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 19.95%EV -8.67%E -2.00%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 32.85%EV -15.68%E -5.96%K -9.62%G +0.000% | 15.8% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.40%EV -7.24%E -3.66%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.37%EV -9.31%E -2.16%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.24%EV -8.62%E -3.03%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.81%EV -8.18%E -4.17%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.34%EV -9.31%E -2.16%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.86%EV -7.66%E -2.66%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 46.64%EV -9.12%E -4.70%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.04%EV -9.31%E -2.16%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.32%EV -10.23%E -3.65%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.42%EV -5.37%E -2.66%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.38%EV -13.53%E -3.30%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.20%EV -8.62%E -3.03%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 46.41%EV -11.93%E -6.34%K -13.55%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.28%EV -13.53%E -3.30%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.31%EV -13.43%E -4.98%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 46.82%EV -12.86%E -6.92%K -14.96%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 21.50%EV -14.58%E -3.60%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.67%EV -11.83%E -4.30%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.35% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.53% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.13% | 0.4% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.85% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.52% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.63% | 0.5% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.09% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.48% | 0.9% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.65% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.63% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.72% | 1.9% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |