La escuela de los momiosEspañol
Peñarol Montevideo v Platense
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Peñarol Montevideo (Local)
Predicción 46.85%2.13momio equitativo
EV -3.96%
Ventaja -1.93%
Kelly -3.77%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.05
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
45.42%47.17%46.78%50.72%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.741.921.922.0557.47%52.17%51.95%48.78%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Platense (Visitante)
Predicción 21.09%4.74momio equitativo
EV +7.57%
Ventaja +1.48%
Kelly +1.85%
Crecimiento +0.140%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.10
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.12%20.89%21.13%22.38%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.054.584.555.1024.69%21.86%21.98%19.61%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 32.06%3.12momio equitativo
EV +4.20%
Ventaja +1.29%
Kelly +1.87%
Crecimiento +0.078%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.25
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.94%31.94%32.09%32.85%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.632.932.913.2538.02%34.08%34.36%30.77%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (40 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE) | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.70%EV -9.59%E -4.97%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.19%EV +7.57%E +1.48%K +1.85%G +0.140% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.11%EV +4.20%E +1.29%K +1.87%G +0.078% | 2.2% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| Pinnacle | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.30%EV -6.77%E -3.40%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 4.97I 20.12%NM 19.34%EV +4.82%E +0.971%K +1.22%G +0.059% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 32.36%EV -4.78%E -1.61%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| BetRivers | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.63%EV -12.40%E -6.63%K -14.25%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.32%EV +3.35%E +0.683%K +0.858%G +0.029% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.05%EV +0.994%E +0.316%K +0.462%G +0.005% | 5.6% | 2026-04-17 00:23 |
| Unibet | 1.86I 53.76%NM 50.52%EV -12.86%E -6.92%K -14.96%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.18%EV +3.35%E +0.683%K +0.858%G +0.029% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -0.609%E -0.196%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| Grosvenor | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -13.33%E -7.21%K -15.69%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.12%EV +3.35%E +0.683%K +0.858%G +0.029% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -0.609%E -0.196%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -13.33%E -7.21%K -15.69%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.12%EV +3.35%E +0.683%K +0.858%G +0.029% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -0.609%E -0.196%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| 1xBet | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.94%EV -10.52%E -5.51%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 4.88I 20.49%NM 19.16%EV +2.93%E +0.600%K +0.754%G +0.022% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 31.90%EV -6.06%E -2.07%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| GTbets | 2.01I 49.75%NM 48.47%EV -5.84%E -2.90%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 4.87I 20.53%NM 20.00%EV +2.71%E +0.557%K +0.702%G +0.019% | 3.09I 32.36%NM 31.53%EV -0.930%E -0.301%K -0.445%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.72%EV -14.27%E -7.80%K -17.19%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV +1.24%E +0.258%K +0.326%G +0.004% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -0.609%E -0.196%K -0.290%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| Everygame | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.01%EV -8.65%E -4.44%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.71%EV +0.184%E +0.039%K +0.049%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.28%EV -7.02%E -2.42%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| Bovada | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.43%EV -8.65%E -4.44%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.09%EV -0.871%E -0.185%K -0.235%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.48%EV -3.82%E -1.27%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-17 00:28 |
| Casumo | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.59%EV -11.93%E -6.34%K -13.55%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.84%EV -0.871%E -0.185%K -0.235%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.57%EV -2.21%E -0.725%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| NordicBet | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.40%EV -10.05%E -5.24%K -10.93%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.77%EV -0.871%E -0.185%K -0.235%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.83%EV -6.38%E -2.18%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.43%EV -15.68%E -8.71%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.31%EV -0.871%E -0.185%K -0.235%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -3.82%E -1.27%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.43%EV -15.68%E -8.71%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.31%EV -0.871%E -0.185%K -0.235%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -3.82%E -1.27%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| BetUS | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.32%EV -8.65%E -4.44%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.27%EV -1.93%E -0.414%K -0.527%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.41%EV -3.82%E -1.27%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| William Hill | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.16%EV -8.65%E -4.44%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.99%EV -2.98%E -0.648%K -0.828%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -10.23%E -3.65%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| SportsBet | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.35%EV -10.99%E -5.78%K -12.21%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.97%EV -2.98%E -0.648%K -0.828%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.68%EV -7.02%E -2.42%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.50%EV -16.61%E -9.33%K -21.30%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.54%EV -2.98%E -0.648%K -0.828%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -3.82%E -1.27%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.74I 57.47%NM 50.55%EV -18.49%E -10.62%K -24.98%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.12%EV -2.98%E -0.648%K -0.828%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.33%EV -7.02%E -2.42%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.37%E -2.66%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.15%EV -5.09%E -1.13%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.73%EV -3.82%E -1.27%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| LowVig.ag | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.37%E -2.66%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.15%EV -5.09%E -1.13%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.73%EV -3.82%E -1.27%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.75%EV -8.65%E -4.44%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -5.09%E -1.13%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.56%EV -5.42%E -1.84%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| PlayUp | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.49%EV -8.65%E -4.44%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.58%EV -5.09%E -1.13%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.93%EV -7.02%E -2.42%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.49%EV -8.65%E -4.44%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.58%EV -5.09%E -1.13%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.93%EV -7.02%E -2.42%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| Paddy Power | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.90%EV -10.52%E -5.51%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.33%EV -5.09%E -1.13%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.77%EV -7.66%E -2.66%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| 888sport | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.47%EV -10.52%E -5.51%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.15%EV -5.09%E -1.13%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.38%EV -10.23%E -3.65%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.47%EV -10.52%E -5.51%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.15%EV -5.09%E -1.13%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.38%EV -10.23%E -3.65%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.47%EV -10.52%E -5.51%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.15%EV -5.09%E -1.13%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.38%EV -10.23%E -3.65%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| Coolbet | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.39%EV -3.96%E -1.93%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.37%EV -6.14%E -1.38%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.24%EV -5.42%E -1.84%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-17 00:28 |
| theScore Bet | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.64%EV -6.31%E -3.15%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -7.20%E -1.64%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.16%EV -7.02%E -2.42%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| Betway | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%EV -8.65%E -4.44%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.17%EV -8.67%E -2.00%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.83%EV -7.66%E -2.66%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| betfred_uk | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%EV -8.65%E -4.44%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.17%EV -8.67%E -2.00%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.83%EV -7.66%E -2.66%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.83I 54.64%NM 47.20%EV -14.27%E -7.80%K -17.19%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 19.95%EV -8.67%E -2.00%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 32.85%EV -15.68%E -5.96%K -9.62%G +0.000% | 15.8% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.40%EV -7.24%E -3.66%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.37%EV -9.31%E -2.16%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.24%EV -8.62%E -3.03%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.81%EV -8.18%E -4.17%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.34%EV -9.31%E -2.16%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.86%EV -7.66%E -2.66%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.94I 51.55%NM 46.64%EV -9.12%E -4.70%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.04%EV -9.31%E -2.16%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.32%EV -10.23%E -3.65%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| Betsson | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.42%EV -5.37%E -2.66%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.38%EV -13.53%E -3.30%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.20%EV -8.62%E -3.03%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.88I 53.19%NM 46.41%EV -11.93%E -6.34%K -13.55%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.28%EV -13.53%E -3.30%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.31%EV -13.43%E -4.98%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.86I 53.76%NM 46.82%EV -12.86%E -6.92%K -14.96%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 21.50%EV -14.58%E -3.60%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.67%EV -11.83%E -4.30%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (4)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.35% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.53% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.13% | 0.4% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.85% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.52% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.63% | 0.5% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.09% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.48% | 0.9% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| Smarkets | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.65% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.63% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.72% | 1.9% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |