Language:English
Toluca v León
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Toluca (Local)
Prediction 56.53%1.77fair odd
EV -1.63%
Edge -0.939%
Kelly -2.21%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.74
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.34%56.27%56.47%58.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.541.671.671.7464.94%59.91%59.88%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
León (Visit)
Prediction 19.72%5.07fair odd
EV +10.45%
Edge +1.87%
Kelly +2.27%
Growth +0.238%
assuming max odds 5.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.96%19.95%19.68%21.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.554.505.6025.00%21.99%22.22%17.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 23.74%4.21fair odd
EV -1.22%
Edge -0.294%
Kelly -0.387%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.16
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.83%23.78%23.86%25.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.853.854.1628.57%25.95%25.97%24.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toluca (Local): 56.53%; León (Visit): 19.72%; Draw: 23.74%. For León (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.07. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.45%.
Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.99%EV -8.98%E -5.58%K -14.73%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.96%EV +10.45%E +1.87%K +2.27%G +0.238% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.05%EV -6.21%E -1.57%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 00:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.07%EV -6.72%E -4.07%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 5.07I 19.72%NM 18.90%EV -0.001%E -0.000%K -0.000%G +0.000% | 4.16I 24.04%NM 23.03%EV -1.22%E -0.294%K -0.387%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-03 00:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.83%EV -6.72%E -4.07%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.90%EV -0.395%E -0.078%K -0.098%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.27%EV -2.65%E -0.646%K -0.854%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-03 00:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.83%EV -6.72%E -4.07%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.90%EV -0.395%E -0.078%K -0.098%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.27%EV -2.65%E -0.646%K -0.854%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-03 00:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.17%EV -8.42%E -5.20%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -1.38%E -0.276%K -0.345%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -2.65%E -0.646%K -0.854%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.17%EV -8.42%E -5.20%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -1.38%E -0.276%K -0.345%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -2.65%E -0.646%K -0.854%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-03 01:01 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.31%EV -8.42%E -5.20%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -1.38%E -0.276%K -0.345%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.12%EV -8.58%E -2.23%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-03 00:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.75%EV -9.55%E -5.97%K -15.91%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.86%EV -3.35%E -0.684%K -0.860%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.39%EV -6.21%E -1.57%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-03 00:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.75%EV -9.55%E -5.97%K -15.91%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.86%EV -3.35%E -0.684%K -0.860%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.39%EV -6.21%E -1.57%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-03 00:55 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.65%EV -4.46%E -2.64%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -5.33%E -1.11%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -9.77%E -2.57%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-03 00:53 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.39%EV -8.42%E -5.20%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.37%EV -5.33%E -1.11%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -5.02%E -1.26%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-03 00:45 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.15%EV -11.24%E -7.16%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -5.33%E -1.11%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -5.02%E -1.26%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-03 00:53 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.15%EV -11.24%E -7.16%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -5.33%E -1.11%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -5.02%E -1.26%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-03 00:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.23%EV -4.46%E -2.64%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.01%EV -6.31%E -1.33%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.76%EV -5.02%E -1.26%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-03 00:49 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.55%EV -6.16%E -3.71%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.97%EV -7.30%E -1.55%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%EV -5.02%E -1.26%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-03 00:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.82%EV -8.42%E -5.20%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.58%EV -7.30%E -1.55%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.60%EV -7.40%E -1.90%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-03 00:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.88%EV -9.55%E -5.97%K -15.91%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.78%EV -9.27%E -2.02%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.34%EV -7.40%E -1.90%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-03 00:45 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -3.90%E -2.29%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.65%EV -10.26%E -2.25%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -7.40%E -1.90%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.28%EV -4.46%E -2.64%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -11.24%E -2.50%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -7.40%E -1.90%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.29%EV -9.55%E -5.97%K -15.91%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.01%EV -11.24%E -2.50%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.70%EV -9.77%E -2.57%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-03 00:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 55.56%EV -9.55%E -5.97%K -15.91%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.75%EV -11.24%E -2.50%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.69%EV -14.52%E -4.03%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-03 00:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 55.56%EV -9.55%E -5.97%K -15.91%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.75%EV -11.24%E -2.50%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.69%EV -14.52%E -4.03%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-03 00:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 55.56%EV -9.55%E -5.97%K -15.91%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.75%EV -11.24%E -2.50%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.69%EV -14.52%E -4.03%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-03 00:59 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 55.99%EV -12.94%E -8.40%K -23.96%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 19.38%EV -12.23%E -2.75%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.64%EV -16.90%E -4.83%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 16.0% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -5.59%E -3.35%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.13%EV -14.60%E -3.37%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.08%EV -9.77%E -2.57%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-03 01:09 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.86%EV -1.63%E -0.939%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%EV -15.19%E -3.53%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.34%EV -8.58%E -2.23%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.86%EV -1.63%E -0.939%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%EV -15.19%E -3.53%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.34%EV -8.58%E -2.23%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.86%EV -1.63%E -0.939%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%EV -15.19%E -3.53%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.34%EV -8.58%E -2.23%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.86%EV -1.63%E -0.939%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%EV -15.19%E -3.53%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.34%EV -8.58%E -2.23%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.86%EV -1.63%E -0.939%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%EV -15.19%E -3.53%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.34%EV -8.58%E -2.23%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.86%EV -1.63%E -0.939%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%EV -15.19%E -3.53%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.34%EV -8.58%E -2.23%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.86%EV -1.63%E -0.939%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%EV -15.19%E -3.53%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.34%EV -8.58%E -2.23%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.86%EV -1.63%E -0.939%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%EV -15.19%E -3.53%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.34%EV -8.58%E -2.23%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.86%EV -1.63%E -0.939%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%EV -15.19%E -3.53%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.34%EV -8.58%E -2.23%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.86%EV -1.63%E -0.939%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%EV -15.19%E -3.53%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.34%EV -8.58%E -2.23%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.86%EV -1.63%E -0.939%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%EV -15.19%E -3.53%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.34%EV -8.58%E -2.23%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.86%EV -1.63%E -0.939%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%EV -15.19%E -3.53%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.34%EV -8.58%E -2.23%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.86%EV -1.63%E -0.939%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%EV -15.19%E -3.53%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.34%EV -8.58%E -2.23%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.86%EV -1.63%E -0.939%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%EV -15.19%E -3.53%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.34%EV -8.58%E -2.23%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.70%EV -2.20%E -1.27%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86%EV -16.17%E -3.81%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -9.77%E -2.57%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.38%EV -1.63%E -0.939%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.85%EV -16.17%E -3.81%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.77%EV -10.96%E -2.92%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-03 00:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.23%EV -6.16%E -3.71%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.44%EV -17.16%E -4.09%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -12.15%E -3.28%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.72%EV -5.59%E -3.35%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -17.16%E -4.09%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -14.52%E -4.03%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.34%EV -5.59%E -3.35%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.21%EV -17.16%E -4.09%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -16.90%E -4.83%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-09-03 01:09 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 53.60%EV -7.29%E -4.44%K -11.39%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.98%EV -21.11%E -5.28%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.42%EV -14.52%E -4.03%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.94% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.72% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.34% | 2.7% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.08% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.66% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.26% | 3.1% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.78% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.59% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.63% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.23% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.03% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.74% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |