Idioma:Español
Toluca v León
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Toluca (Local)
Predicción 56.53%1.77momio equitativo
EV -1.63%
Ventaja -0.939%
Kelly -2.21%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.74
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
53.34%56.27%56.47%58.99%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.541.671.671.7464.94%59.91%59.88%57.47%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
León (Visitante)
Predicción 19.72%5.07momio equitativo
EV +10.45%
Ventaja +1.87%
Kelly +2.27%
Crecimiento +0.238%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.60
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.96%19.95%19.68%21.98%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.004.554.505.6025.00%21.99%22.22%17.86%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 23.74%4.21momio equitativo
EV -1.22%
Ventaja -0.294%
Kelly -0.387%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.16
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.83%23.78%23.86%25.45%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.503.853.854.1628.57%25.95%25.97%24.04%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Toluca (Local): 56.53%; León (Visitante): 19.72%; Empate: 23.74%. Para León (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.07. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 5.60, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +10.45%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (45 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.99%EV -8.98%E -5.58%K -14.73%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.96%EV +10.45%E +1.87%K +2.27%G +0.238% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.05%EV -6.21%E -1.57%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 00:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.07%EV -6.72%E -4.07%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 5.07I 19.72%NM 18.90%EV -0.001%E -0.000%K -0.000%G +0.000% | 4.16I 24.04%NM 23.03%EV -1.22%E -0.294%K -0.387%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-03 00:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.83%EV -6.72%E -4.07%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.90%EV -0.395%E -0.078%K -0.098%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.27%EV -2.65%E -0.646%K -0.854%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-03 00:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.83%EV -6.72%E -4.07%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.90%EV -0.395%E -0.078%K -0.098%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.27%EV -2.65%E -0.646%K -0.854%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-03 00:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.17%EV -8.42%E -5.20%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -1.38%E -0.276%K -0.345%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -2.65%E -0.646%K -0.854%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.17%EV -8.42%E -5.20%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -1.38%E -0.276%K -0.345%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -2.65%E -0.646%K -0.854%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-03 01:01 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.31%EV -8.42%E -5.20%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -1.38%E -0.276%K -0.345%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.12%EV -8.58%E -2.23%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-03 00:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.75%EV -9.55%E -5.97%K -15.91%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.86%EV -3.35%E -0.684%K -0.860%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.39%EV -6.21%E -1.57%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-03 00:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.75%EV -9.55%E -5.97%K -15.91%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.86%EV -3.35%E -0.684%K -0.860%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.39%EV -6.21%E -1.57%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-03 00:55 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.65%EV -4.46%E -2.64%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -5.33%E -1.11%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -9.77%E -2.57%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-03 00:53 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.39%EV -8.42%E -5.20%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.37%EV -5.33%E -1.11%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -5.02%E -1.26%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-03 00:45 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.15%EV -11.24%E -7.16%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -5.33%E -1.11%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -5.02%E -1.26%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-03 00:53 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.15%EV -11.24%E -7.16%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -5.33%E -1.11%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -5.02%E -1.26%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-03 00:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.23%EV -4.46%E -2.64%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.01%EV -6.31%E -1.33%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.76%EV -5.02%E -1.26%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-03 00:49 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.55%EV -6.16%E -3.71%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.97%EV -7.30%E -1.55%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%EV -5.02%E -1.26%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-03 00:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.82%EV -8.42%E -5.20%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.58%EV -7.30%E -1.55%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.60%EV -7.40%E -1.90%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-03 00:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.88%EV -9.55%E -5.97%K -15.91%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.78%EV -9.27%E -2.02%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.34%EV -7.40%E -1.90%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-03 00:45 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -3.90%E -2.29%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.65%EV -10.26%E -2.25%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -7.40%E -1.90%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.28%EV -4.46%E -2.64%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -11.24%E -2.50%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -7.40%E -1.90%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.29%EV -9.55%E -5.97%K -15.91%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.01%EV -11.24%E -2.50%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.70%EV -9.77%E -2.57%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-03 00:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 55.56%EV -9.55%E -5.97%K -15.91%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.75%EV -11.24%E -2.50%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.69%EV -14.52%E -4.03%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-03 00:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 55.56%EV -9.55%E -5.97%K -15.91%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.75%EV -11.24%E -2.50%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.69%EV -14.52%E -4.03%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-03 00:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 55.56%EV -9.55%E -5.97%K -15.91%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.75%EV -11.24%E -2.50%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.69%EV -14.52%E -4.03%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-03 00:59 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 55.99%EV -12.94%E -8.40%K -23.96%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 19.38%EV -12.23%E -2.75%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.64%EV -16.90%E -4.83%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 16.0% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -5.59%E -3.35%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.13%EV -14.60%E -3.37%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.08%EV -9.77%E -2.57%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-03 01:09 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.86%EV -1.63%E -0.939%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%EV -15.19%E -3.53%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.34%EV -8.58%E -2.23%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.86%EV -1.63%E -0.939%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%EV -15.19%E -3.53%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.34%EV -8.58%E -2.23%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.86%EV -1.63%E -0.939%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%EV -15.19%E -3.53%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.34%EV -8.58%E -2.23%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.86%EV -1.63%E -0.939%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%EV -15.19%E -3.53%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.34%EV -8.58%E -2.23%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.86%EV -1.63%E -0.939%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%EV -15.19%E -3.53%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.34%EV -8.58%E -2.23%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.86%EV -1.63%E -0.939%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%EV -15.19%E -3.53%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.34%EV -8.58%E -2.23%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.86%EV -1.63%E -0.939%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%EV -15.19%E -3.53%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.34%EV -8.58%E -2.23%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.86%EV -1.63%E -0.939%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%EV -15.19%E -3.53%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.34%EV -8.58%E -2.23%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.86%EV -1.63%E -0.939%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%EV -15.19%E -3.53%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.34%EV -8.58%E -2.23%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.86%EV -1.63%E -0.939%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%EV -15.19%E -3.53%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.34%EV -8.58%E -2.23%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.86%EV -1.63%E -0.939%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%EV -15.19%E -3.53%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.34%EV -8.58%E -2.23%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.86%EV -1.63%E -0.939%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%EV -15.19%E -3.53%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.34%EV -8.58%E -2.23%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.86%EV -1.63%E -0.939%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%EV -15.19%E -3.53%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.34%EV -8.58%E -2.23%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.86%EV -1.63%E -0.939%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%EV -15.19%E -3.53%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.34%EV -8.58%E -2.23%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.70%EV -2.20%E -1.27%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86%EV -16.17%E -3.81%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -9.77%E -2.57%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.38%EV -1.63%E -0.939%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.85%EV -16.17%E -3.81%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.77%EV -10.96%E -2.92%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-03 00:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.23%EV -6.16%E -3.71%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.44%EV -17.16%E -4.09%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -12.15%E -3.28%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.72%EV -5.59%E -3.35%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -17.16%E -4.09%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -14.52%E -4.03%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.34%EV -5.59%E -3.35%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.21%EV -17.16%E -4.09%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -16.90%E -4.83%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-09-03 01:09 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 53.60%EV -7.29%E -4.44%K -11.39%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.98%EV -21.11%E -5.28%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.42%EV -14.52%E -4.03%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (4)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.94% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.72% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.34% | 2.7% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.08% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.66% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.26% | 3.1% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.78% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.59% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.63% | 5.5% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.23% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.03% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.74% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 01:10 |