Language:English
Sport Recife v Vila Nova
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sport Recife (Local)
Prediction 50.73%1.97fair odd
EV -5.13%
Edge -2.75%
Kelly -5.90%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.87
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.36%50.89%50.80%53.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.801.801.8758.82%55.62%55.56%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Vila Nova (Visit)
Prediction 20.86%4.79fair odd
EV +2.22%
Edge +0.453%
Kelly +0.570%
Growth +0.013%
assuming max odds 4.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.09%20.76%20.79%22.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.534.504.9023.81%22.07%22.22%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.41%3.52fair odd
EV -4.55%
Edge -1.35%
Kelly -1.93%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.36
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.33%28.35%28.42%29.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.253.253.3632.26%30.78%30.77%29.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sport Recife (Local): 50.73%; Vila Nova (Visit): 20.86%; Draw: 28.41%. For Vila Nova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.79. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.22%.
Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.09%EV -7.16%E -3.91%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.45%EV +2.22%E +0.453%K +0.570%G +0.013% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.46%EV -4.83%E -1.44%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-01 21:59 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.09%EV -7.16%E -3.91%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.45%EV +2.22%E +0.453%K +0.570%G +0.013% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.46%EV -4.83%E -1.44%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-01 21:59 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.64%EV -9.19%E -5.14%K -11.64%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.23%EV +2.22%E +0.453%K +0.570%G +0.013% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -4.83%E -1.44%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-01 22:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.64%EV -9.19%E -5.14%K -11.64%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.23%EV +2.22%E +0.453%K +0.570%G +0.013% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -4.83%E -1.44%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-01 22:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.64%EV -9.19%E -5.14%K -11.64%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.23%EV +2.22%E +0.453%K +0.570%G +0.013% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -4.83%E -1.44%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-01 22:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.64%EV -9.19%E -5.14%K -11.64%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.23%EV +2.22%E +0.453%K +0.570%G +0.013% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -4.83%E -1.44%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-01 22:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.78%EV -9.70%E -5.45%K -12.44%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.17%EV +2.22%E +0.453%K +0.570%G +0.013% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -4.83%E -1.44%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-01 22:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.78%EV -9.70%E -5.45%K -12.44%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.17%EV +2.22%E +0.453%K +0.570%G +0.013% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -4.83%E -1.44%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-01 22:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.56%EV -9.70%E -5.45%K -12.44%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.09%EV +2.22%E +0.453%K +0.570%G +0.013% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -6.25%E -1.89%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-01 21:46 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.07%EV -8.69%E -4.83%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV +0.135%E +0.028%K +0.036%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -6.25%E -1.89%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-01 22:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.92%EV -11.73%E -6.74%K -15.85%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.18%EV +0.135%E +0.028%K +0.036%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -6.25%E -1.89%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-01 22:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.32%EV -5.13%E -2.75%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 4.77I 20.96%NM 20.12%EV -0.490%E -0.103%K -0.130%G +0.000% | 3.36I 29.76%NM 28.56%EV -4.55%E -1.35%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-01 21:59 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.87%EV -12.74%E -7.41%K -17.70%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.15%EV -0.908%E -0.191%K -0.242%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -7.67%E -2.36%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-01 22:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.48%EV -11.73%E -6.74%K -15.85%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.43%EV -1.95%E -0.415%K -0.527%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.10%EV -7.67%E -2.36%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-01 22:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.83%EV -13.76%E -8.09%K -19.66%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.11%EV -1.95%E -0.415%K -0.527%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -9.09%E -2.84%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-04-01 22:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.06%EV -13.76%E -8.09%K -19.66%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -4.04%E -0.878%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -6.25%E -1.89%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-04-01 21:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 52.46%EV -13.25%E -7.75%K -18.66%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.50%EV -4.04%E -0.878%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.03%EV -9.09%E -2.84%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-01 22:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 52.46%EV -13.25%E -7.75%K -18.66%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.50%EV -4.04%E -0.878%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.03%EV -9.09%E -2.84%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-01 22:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.98%EV -7.67%E -4.21%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.39%EV -5.08%E -1.12%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 28.63%EV -7.96%E -2.46%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-01 21:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 50.93%EV -8.18%E -4.52%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.26%EV -5.08%E -1.12%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -9.09%E -2.84%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-01 21:58 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 50.93%EV -8.18%E -4.52%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.26%EV -5.08%E -1.12%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -9.09%E -2.84%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-01 21:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -7.16%E -3.91%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -6.12%E -1.36%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -6.25%E -1.89%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-01 22:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -7.16%E -3.91%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -6.12%E -1.36%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -6.25%E -1.89%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-01 21:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -7.16%E -3.91%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -6.12%E -1.36%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -6.25%E -1.89%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-01 21:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -7.16%E -3.91%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -6.12%E -1.36%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -6.25%E -1.89%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-01 21:58 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -8.69%E -4.83%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -6.12%E -1.36%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -7.67%E -2.36%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-01 21:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.21%EV -5.13%E -2.75%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.34%EV -8.21%E -1.87%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -6.25%E -1.89%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-01 22:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 50.39%EV -6.66%E -3.62%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.07%EV -8.21%E -1.87%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.53%EV -7.67%E -2.36%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-01 21:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.84%EV -7.16%E -3.91%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -8.21%E -1.87%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -11.93%E -3.85%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-01 21:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.84%EV -7.16%E -3.91%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -8.21%E -1.87%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -11.93%E -3.85%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-01 21:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.84%EV -7.16%E -3.91%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -8.21%E -1.87%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -11.93%E -3.85%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-01 21:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.84%EV -7.16%E -3.91%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -8.21%E -1.87%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -11.93%E -3.85%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-01 21:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.55%EV -7.67%E -4.21%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.15%EV -9.25%E -2.13%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -7.67%E -2.36%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-01 22:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.55%EV -7.67%E -4.21%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.15%EV -9.25%E -2.13%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -7.67%E -2.36%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-01 21:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.25%EV -11.22%E -6.41%K -14.96%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.72%EV -9.67%E -2.23%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.03%EV -9.09%E -2.84%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-01 22:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.80%EV -11.22%E -6.41%K -14.96%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.53%EV -9.67%E -2.23%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.67%EV -11.93%E -3.85%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-04-01 22:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.20%EV -7.67%E -4.21%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.25%EV -10.30%E -2.39%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -9.09%E -2.84%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-01 22:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.97%EV -6.15%E -3.32%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.01%EV -12.38%E -2.95%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -6.25%E -1.89%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-01 22:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.24%EV -7.16%E -3.91%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -12.38%E -2.95%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -6.25%E -1.89%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-01 21:58 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.44%EV -8.69%E -4.83%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -12.38%E -2.95%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -7.67%E -2.36%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-01 22:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.22%EV -8.69%E -4.83%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -12.38%E -2.95%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -9.09%E -2.84%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-04-01 21:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.22%EV -8.69%E -4.83%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -12.38%E -2.95%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -9.09%E -2.84%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-04-01 22:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.22%EV -8.69%E -4.83%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -12.38%E -2.95%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -9.09%E -2.84%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-04-01 21:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.22%EV -8.69%E -4.83%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -12.38%E -2.95%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -9.09%E -2.84%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-04-01 22:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.22%EV -8.69%E -4.83%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -12.38%E -2.95%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -9.09%E -2.84%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-04-01 21:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.36%EV -7.16%E -3.91%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.51%EV -12.38%E -2.95%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.14%EV -11.93%E -3.85%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-01 22:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.91I 52.36%NM 52.08% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.90% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 28.02% | 0.5% | 2026-04-01 22:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.91I 52.36%NM 51.67% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.14% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.19% | 1.3% | 2026-04-01 22:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.91I 52.36%NM 51.67% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.14% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.19% | 1.3% | 2026-04-01 22:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.91I 52.36%NM 51.67% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.14% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.19% | 1.3% | 2026-04-01 22:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 51.58% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.42% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.00% | 2.0% | 2026-04-01 22:00 |