Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Sport Recife v Vila Nova

Início: 2026-04-01 22:04 UTC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

46 casas de apostas (18 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Sport Recife (Local)

Previsão 50.73%1.97odd justa
EV -5.13%
Vantagem -2.75%
Kelly -5.90%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.87

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
49.36%50.89%50.80%53.06%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.701.801.801.8758.82%55.62%55.56%53.48%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Vila Nova (Visitante)

Previsão 20.86%4.79odd justa
EV +2.22%
Vantagem +0.453%
Kelly +0.570%
Crescimento +0.013%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.90

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
19.09%20.76%20.79%22.01%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.204.534.504.9023.81%22.07%22.22%20.41%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 28.41%3.52odd justa
EV -4.55%
Vantagem -1.35%
Kelly -1.93%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.36

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
27.33%28.35%28.42%29.42%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.103.253.253.3632.26%30.78%30.77%29.76%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Sport Recife (Local): 50.73%; Vila Nova (Visitante): 20.86%; Empate: 28.41%. Para Vila Nova (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 4.79. 11 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 4.90, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +2.22%.

Odds das casas de apostas (46 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
LowVig.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.09%EV -7.16%E -3.91%K -8.63%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.45%EV +2.22%E +0.453%K +0.570%G +0.013%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.46%EV -4.83%E -1.44%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-01 21:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.09%EV -7.16%E -3.91%K -8.63%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.45%EV +2.22%E +0.453%K +0.570%G +0.013%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.46%EV -4.83%E -1.44%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-01 21:59
Casumo🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.64%EV -9.19%E -5.14%K -11.64%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.23%EV +2.22%E +0.453%K +0.570%G +0.013%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -4.83%E -1.44%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-01 22:00
Unibet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.64%EV -9.19%E -5.14%K -11.64%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.23%EV +2.22%E +0.453%K +0.570%G +0.013%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -4.83%E -1.44%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-01 22:00
betPARX🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.64%EV -9.19%E -5.14%K -11.64%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.23%EV +2.22%E +0.453%K +0.570%G +0.013%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -4.83%E -1.44%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-01 22:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.64%EV -9.19%E -5.14%K -11.64%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.23%EV +2.22%E +0.453%K +0.570%G +0.013%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -4.83%E -1.44%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-01 22:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.78%EV -9.70%E -5.45%K -12.44%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.17%EV +2.22%E +0.453%K +0.570%G +0.013%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -4.83%E -1.44%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-01 22:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.78%EV -9.70%E -5.45%K -12.44%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.17%EV +2.22%E +0.453%K +0.570%G +0.013%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -4.83%E -1.44%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-01 22:00
BetRivers🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.56%EV -9.70%E -5.45%K -12.44%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.09%EV +2.22%E +0.453%K +0.570%G +0.013%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -6.25%E -1.89%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-01 21:46
Unibet (NL)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.07%EV -8.69%E -4.83%K -10.86%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV +0.135%E +0.028%K +0.036%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -6.25%E -1.89%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-01 22:00
Grosvenor🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.92%EV -11.73%E -6.74%K -15.85%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.18%EV +0.135%E +0.028%K +0.036%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -6.25%E -1.89%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-01 22:00
Pinnacle🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.32%EV -5.13%E -2.75%K -5.90%G +0.000%4.77I 20.96%NM 20.12%EV -0.490%E -0.103%K -0.130%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.56%EV -4.55%E -1.35%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-01 21:59
TABtouch🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.87%EV -12.74%E -7.41%K -17.70%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.15%EV -0.908%E -0.191%K -0.242%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -7.67%E -2.36%K -3.41%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-01 22:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.48%EV -11.73%E -6.74%K -15.85%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.43%EV -1.95%E -0.415%K -0.527%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.10%EV -7.67%E -2.36%K -3.41%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-01 22:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.83%EV -13.76%E -8.09%K -19.66%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.11%EV -1.95%E -0.415%K -0.527%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -9.09%E -2.84%K -4.13%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-01 22:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.06%EV -13.76%E -8.09%K -19.66%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -4.04%E -0.878%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -6.25%E -1.89%K -2.72%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-01 21:59
LeoVegas🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.46%EV -13.25%E -7.75%K -18.66%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.50%EV -4.04%E -0.878%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.03%EV -9.09%E -2.84%K -4.13%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-01 22:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.46%EV -13.25%E -7.75%K -18.66%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.50%EV -4.04%E -0.878%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.03%EV -9.09%E -2.84%K -4.13%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-01 22:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.98%EV -7.67%E -4.21%K -9.36%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.39%EV -5.08%E -1.12%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.63%EV -7.96%E -2.46%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-01 21:59
Bovada🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.93%EV -8.18%E -4.52%K -10.10%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.26%EV -5.08%E -1.12%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -9.09%E -2.84%K -4.13%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-01 21:58
BetUS🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.93%EV -8.18%E -4.52%K -10.10%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.26%EV -5.08%E -1.12%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -9.09%E -2.84%K -4.13%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-01 21:59
SportsBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -7.16%E -3.91%K -8.63%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -6.12%E -1.36%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -6.25%E -1.89%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-01 22:00
1xBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -7.16%E -3.91%K -8.63%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -6.12%E -1.36%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -6.25%E -1.89%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-01 21:59
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -7.16%E -3.91%K -8.63%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -6.12%E -1.36%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -6.25%E -1.89%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-01 21:59
Coolbet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -7.16%E -3.91%K -8.63%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -6.12%E -1.36%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -6.25%E -1.89%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-01 21:58
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -8.69%E -4.83%K -10.86%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -6.12%E -1.36%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -7.67%E -2.36%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-01 21:59
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.21%EV -5.13%E -2.75%K -5.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.34%EV -8.21%E -1.87%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -6.25%E -1.89%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-01 22:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.39%EV -6.66%E -3.62%K -7.92%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.07%EV -8.21%E -1.87%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.53%EV -7.67%E -2.36%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-01 21:59
888sport🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.84%EV -7.16%E -3.91%K -8.63%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -8.21%E -1.87%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -11.93%E -3.85%K -5.68%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-01 21:59
William Hill🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.84%EV -7.16%E -3.91%K -8.63%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -8.21%E -1.87%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -11.93%E -3.85%K -5.68%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-01 21:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.84%EV -7.16%E -3.91%K -8.63%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -8.21%E -1.87%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -11.93%E -3.85%K -5.68%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-01 21:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.84%EV -7.16%E -3.91%K -8.63%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -8.21%E -1.87%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -11.93%E -3.85%K -5.68%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-01 21:59
NordicBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.55%EV -7.67%E -4.21%K -9.36%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.15%EV -9.25%E -2.13%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -7.67%E -2.36%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-01 22:00
Betsson🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.55%EV -7.67%E -4.21%K -9.36%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.15%EV -9.25%E -2.13%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -7.67%E -2.36%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-01 21:59
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.25%EV -11.22%E -6.41%K -14.96%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.72%EV -9.67%E -2.23%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.03%EV -9.09%E -2.84%K -4.13%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-01 22:00
BoyleSports🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.80%EV -11.22%E -6.41%K -14.96%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.53%EV -9.67%E -2.23%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.67%EV -11.93%E -3.85%K -5.68%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-01 22:00
Codere (IT)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.20%EV -7.67%E -4.21%K -9.36%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.25%EV -10.30%E -2.39%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -9.09%E -2.84%K -4.13%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-01 22:00
Betway🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.97%EV -6.15%E -3.32%K -7.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.01%EV -12.38%E -2.95%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -6.25%E -1.89%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-01 22:00
theScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.24%EV -7.16%E -3.91%K -8.63%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -12.38%E -2.95%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -6.25%E -1.89%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-01 21:58
BetMGM🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.44%EV -8.69%E -4.83%K -10.86%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -12.38%E -2.95%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -7.67%E -2.36%K -3.41%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-01 22:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.22%EV -8.69%E -4.83%K -10.86%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -12.38%E -2.95%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -9.09%E -2.84%K -4.13%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-01 21:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.22%EV -8.69%E -4.83%K -10.86%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -12.38%E -2.95%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -9.09%E -2.84%K -4.13%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-01 22:00
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.22%EV -8.69%E -4.83%K -10.86%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -12.38%E -2.95%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -9.09%E -2.84%K -4.13%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-01 21:59
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.22%EV -8.69%E -4.83%K -10.86%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -12.38%E -2.95%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -9.09%E -2.84%K -4.13%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-01 22:00
Bet Victor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.22%EV -8.69%E -4.83%K -10.86%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -12.38%E -2.95%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -9.09%E -2.84%K -4.13%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-01 21:59
PlayUp🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.36%EV -7.16%E -3.91%K -8.63%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.51%EV -12.38%E -2.95%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.14%EV -11.93%E -3.85%K -5.68%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-01 22:00
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook1.91I 52.36%NM 52.08%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.90%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.02%0.5%2026-04-01 22:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.91I 52.36%NM 51.67%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.14%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.19%1.3%2026-04-01 22:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 51.67%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.14%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.19%1.3%2026-04-01 22:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.91I 52.36%NM 51.67%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.14%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.19%1.3%2026-04-01 22:00
Smarkets1.90I 52.63%NM 51.58%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.42%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.00%2.0%2026-04-01 22:00