The School of OddsPonte Preta v Criciuma
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
Head to Head
Ponte Preta (Local)
Prediction 15.60%6.41fair odd
EV +2.51%
Edge +0.382%
Kelly +0.451%
Growth +0.011%
assuming max odds 6.57
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.29%15.55%15.62%17.30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
5.255.815.806.5719%17%17%15%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Criciuma (Visit)
Prediction 58.35%1.71fair odd
EV -4.30%
Edge -2.62%
Kelly -6.73%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.64
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.46%58.38%58.38%60.29%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.501.581.581.6467%63%63%61%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Draw
Prediction 26.05%3.84fair odd
EV -3.37%
Edge -0.908%
Kelly -1.24%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.71
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.12%26.07%26.00%26.91%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.403.523.503.7129%28%29%27%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 6.57I 15.22%NM 14.60%EV +2.51%E +0.382%K +0.451%G +0.011% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.56%EV -6.05%E -3.76%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 3.71I 26.95%NM 25.85%EV -3.37%E -0.908%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-08 22:59 |
| DraftKings | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV +1.42%E +0.218%K +0.258%G +0.004% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.61%EV -8.39%E -5.34%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -6.23%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-08 23:00 |
| SportsBet | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.35%EV +1.42%E +0.218%K +0.258%G +0.004% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.01%EV -7.81%E -4.94%K -13.46%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -8.84%E -2.53%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-08 22:59 |
| FanDuel | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.29%EV +1.42%E +0.218%K +0.258%G +0.004% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.17%EV -8.39%E -5.34%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -8.84%E -2.53%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-08 23:00 |
| 1xBet | 6.28I 15.92%NM 14.90%EV -2.01%E -0.321%K -0.381%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.24%EV -7.81%E -4.94%K -13.46%G +0.000% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 25.86%EV -5.71%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-08 22:59 |
| BetUS | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.89%EV -2.48%E -0.397%K -0.473%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.27%EV -8.39%E -5.34%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.85%EV -6.23%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-08 22:59 |
| LowVig.ag | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.16%EV -3.26%E -0.526%K -0.627%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.37%EV -6.05%E -3.76%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -7.54%E -2.12%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-08 23:00 |
| BetOnline.ag | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.16%EV -3.26%E -0.526%K -0.627%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.37%EV -6.05%E -3.76%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -7.54%E -2.12%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-08 23:00 |
| Tipico (DE) | 6.20I 16.13%NM 14.59%EV -3.26%E -0.526%K -0.627%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.29%EV -12.47%E -8.32%K -24.95%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -6.23%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-07-08 22:59 |
| LeoVegas | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -6.38%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.64%E -4.15%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -6.23%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-08 23:00 |
| Unibet (UK) | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -6.38%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.75%EV -7.81%E -4.94%K -13.46%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.78%EV -6.23%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-08 22:59 |
| Betway | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -6.38%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.39%E -5.34%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -6.23%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-08 22:59 |
| Bovada | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -6.38%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.10%EV -7.81%E -4.94%K -13.46%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -10.14%E -2.94%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-07-08 22:58 |
| 888sport | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -6.38%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.02%EV -8.39%E -5.34%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -11.44%E -3.37%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-07-08 22:59 |
| William Hill | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -6.38%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.02%EV -8.39%E -5.34%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -11.44%E -3.37%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-07-08 22:59 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -6.38%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.02%EV -8.39%E -5.34%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -11.44%E -3.37%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-07-08 22:59 |
| Paddy Power | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.96%EV -6.38%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.65%EV -10.72%E -7.01%K -20.23%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -11.44%E -3.37%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-07-08 23:00 |
| Betsson | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.75%EV -7.94%E -1.35%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.80%EV -7.81%E -4.94%K -13.46%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -4.93%E -1.35%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-08 22:59 |
| NordicBet | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.75%EV -7.94%E -1.35%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.80%EV -7.81%E -4.94%K -13.46%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -4.93%E -1.35%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-08 22:59 |
| Unibet | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.09%EV -9.50%E -1.64%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.34%EV -6.64%E -4.15%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.57%EV -4.93%E -1.35%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-08 22:59 |
| Casumo | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.09%EV -9.50%E -1.64%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.34%EV -6.64%E -4.15%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.57%EV -4.93%E -1.35%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-08 23:00 |
| Unibet (NL) | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.09%EV -9.50%E -1.64%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.34%EV -6.64%E -4.15%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.57%EV -4.93%E -1.35%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-08 23:00 |
| Unibet (SE) | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.09%EV -9.50%E -1.64%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.34%EV -6.64%E -4.15%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.57%EV -4.93%E -1.35%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-08 23:00 |
| ATG (SE) | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.09%EV -9.50%E -1.64%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.34%EV -6.64%E -4.15%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.57%EV -4.93%E -1.35%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-08 23:00 |
| Svenska Spel | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.09%EV -9.50%E -1.64%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.34%EV -6.64%E -4.15%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.57%EV -4.93%E -1.35%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-08 23:00 |
| betPARX | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.09%EV -9.50%E -1.64%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.34%EV -6.64%E -4.15%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.57%EV -4.93%E -1.35%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-08 23:00 |
| Marathon Bet | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.97%EV -9.50%E -1.64%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.88%EV -6.64%E -4.15%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 26.16%EV -7.80%E -2.20%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-08 22:59 |
| Codere (IT) | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.80%EV -9.50%E -1.64%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.74%EV -8.97%E -5.75%K -16.02%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -6.23%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-08 23:00 |
| Coolbet | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.26%EV -10.28%E -1.79%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.02%EV -4.30%E -2.62%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -8.84%E -2.53%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-08 22:58 |
| 888sport (SE) | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.91%EV -10.28%E -1.79%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.18%EV -6.64%E -4.15%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -11.44%E -3.37%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-07-08 22:59 |
| Bet Victor | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.62%EV -10.28%E -1.79%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.96%EV -9.56%E -6.17%K -17.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.42%EV -11.44%E -3.37%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-07-08 23:00 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.63%EV -14.18%E -2.58%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.46%EV -5.47%E -3.38%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -11.44%E -3.37%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-07-08 22:59 |
| BetRivers | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.58%EV -14.18%E -2.58%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.99%EV -6.64%E -4.15%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.43%EV -10.14%E -2.94%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-07-08 22:51 |
| BetMGM | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.46%EV -14.18%E -2.58%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.67%EV -8.39%E -5.34%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -8.84%E -2.53%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-07-08 22:59 |
| Grosvenor | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.28%EV -14.18%E -2.58%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.77%EV -9.56%E -6.17%K -17.37%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.95%EV -10.14%E -2.94%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-07-08 22:59 |
| BoyleSports | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.22%EV -14.18%E -2.58%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.30%EV -10.72%E -7.01%K -20.23%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -8.84%E -2.53%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-07-08 23:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.53%EV -15.74%E -2.92%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.59%EV -9.56%E -6.17%K -17.37%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.88%EV -10.14%E -2.94%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-07-08 22:59 |
| TABtouch | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.47%EV -15.74%E -2.92%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 57.75%EV -10.14%E -6.58%K -18.78%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.78%EV -10.14%E -2.94%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-07-08 22:59 |
| LiveScore Bet | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.54%EV -17.30%E -3.26%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 57.68%EV -11.31%E -7.44%K -21.74%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.78%EV -11.44%E -3.37%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-07-08 23:00 |
| Virgin Bet | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.54%EV -17.30%E -3.26%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 57.68%EV -11.31%E -7.44%K -21.74%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.78%EV -11.44%E -3.37%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-07-08 23:00 |
| PlayUp | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.30%EV -18.08%E -3.44%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -6.64%E -4.15%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -8.84%E -2.53%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-07-08 22:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.98%EV -18.08%E -3.44%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.79%EV -8.39%E -5.34%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.22%EV -11.44%E -3.37%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-07-08 22:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.98%EV -18.08%E -3.44%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.79%EV -8.39%E -5.34%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.22%EV -11.44%E -3.37%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-07-08 22:59 |
| Neds | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.98%EV -18.08%E -3.44%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.79%EV -8.39%E -5.34%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.22%EV -11.44%E -3.37%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-07-08 22:59 |
| Coral | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.98%EV -18.08%E -3.44%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.79%EV -8.39%E -5.34%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.22%EV -11.44%E -3.37%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-07-08 23:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.87% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 60.18% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.95% | 0.1% | 2026-07-08 23:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.82% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.32% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.85% | 0.5% | 2026-07-08 23:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.82% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.32% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.85% | 0.5% | 2026-07-08 23:00 |
| Smarkets | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.67% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.76% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.57% | 1.6% | 2026-07-08 23:00 |
| Matchbook | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.29% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 61.48% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.22% | 1.7% | 2026-07-08 23:00 |