The School of OddsPonte Preta v Criciuma
Head to Head
Option 1: Ponte Preta (Local)
Odds
4.5022.22%Min
4.7221.21%Mean
4.7521.05%Median
4.9920.04%Max
Consensus probabilities
18.95%5.277Min
20.37%4.910Max
19.45%5.143Mean
19.39%5.157Median
19.42%5.149IQM
19.43%5.147Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 4.99 under the IQM model: 19.42%
EV -3.09%Edge -0.619%Kelly -0.774%Growth +0.000%
Option 2: Criciuma (Visit)
Odds
1.6361.35%Min
1.7158.47%Mean
1.7158.48%Median
1.7557.14%Max
Consensus probabilities
51.66%1.936Min
54.62%1.831Max
53.31%1.876Mean
53.38%1.873Median
53.38%1.873IQM
53.35%1.874Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 1.75 under the IQM model: 53.38%
EV -6.58%Edge -3.76%Kelly -8.78%Growth +0.000%
Option 3: Draw
Odds
3.2031.25%Min
3.3729.68%Mean
3.3529.85%Median
3.5528.17%Max
Consensus probabilities
26.31%3.801Min
28.29%3.534Max
27.25%3.670Mean
27.23%3.672Median
27.20%3.677IQM
27.22%3.673Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 3.55 under the IQM model: 27.20%
EV -3.45%Edge -0.972%Kelly -1.35%Growth +0.000%
Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Ponte Preta (Local) ▼ | Criciuma (Visit) | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 4.99I 20.04% NM 18.95%EV -3.09% E -0.619% K -0.774% G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14% NM 54.03%EV -6.58% E -3.76% K -8.78% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 27.02%EV -4.81% E -1.37% K -1.92% G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-04 20:15 |
| Unibet | 4.90I 20.41% NM 19.06%EV -4.84% E -0.987% K -1.24% G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48% NM 54.62%EV -8.72% E -5.10% K -12.28% G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17% NM 26.31%EV -3.45% E -0.972% K -1.35% G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-05 02:14 |
| Casumo | 4.90I 20.41% NM 19.06%EV -4.84% E -0.987% K -1.24% G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48% NM 54.62%EV -8.72% E -5.10% K -12.28% G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17% NM 26.31%EV -3.45% E -0.972% K -1.35% G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-05 02:14 |
| Unibet (NL) | 4.90I 20.41% NM 19.06%EV -4.84% E -0.987% K -1.24% G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48% NM 54.62%EV -8.72% E -5.10% K -12.28% G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17% NM 26.31%EV -3.45% E -0.972% K -1.35% G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-05 02:15 |
| Unibet (SE) | 4.90I 20.41% NM 19.06%EV -4.84% E -0.987% K -1.24% G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48% NM 54.62%EV -8.72% E -5.10% K -12.28% G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17% NM 26.31%EV -3.45% E -0.972% K -1.35% G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-05 02:15 |
| ATG (SE) | 4.90I 20.41% NM 19.06%EV -4.84% E -0.987% K -1.24% G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48% NM 54.62%EV -8.72% E -5.10% K -12.28% G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17% NM 26.31%EV -3.45% E -0.972% K -1.35% G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-05 02:15 |
| Svenska Spel | 4.90I 20.41% NM 19.06%EV -4.84% E -0.987% K -1.24% G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48% NM 54.62%EV -8.72% E -5.10% K -12.28% G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17% NM 26.31%EV -3.45% E -0.972% K -1.35% G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-05 02:15 |
| betPARX | 4.90I 20.41% NM 19.06%EV -4.84% E -0.987% K -1.24% G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48% NM 54.62%EV -8.72% E -5.10% K -12.28% G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17% NM 26.31%EV -3.45% E -0.972% K -1.35% G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-05 02:15 |
| Bovada | 4.85I 20.62% NM 19.00%EV -5.81% E -1.20% K -1.51% G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48% NM 53.89%EV -8.72% E -5.10% K -12.28% G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 27.11%EV -7.53% E -2.21% K -3.14% G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-07-04 21:30 |
| SportsBet | 4.80I 20.83% NM 19.43%EV -6.78% E -1.41% K -1.78% G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80% NM 53.92%EV -7.65% E -4.42% K -10.48% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 26.65%EV -4.81% E -1.37% K -1.92% G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-04 19:20 |
| LowVig.ag | 4.80I 20.83% NM 19.26%EV -6.78% E -1.41% K -1.78% G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47% NM 53.14%EV -7.12% E -4.09% K -9.62% G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85% NM 27.60%EV -8.89% E -2.65% K -3.78% G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-04 20:05 |
| BetOnline.ag | 4.80I 20.83% NM 19.26%EV -6.78% E -1.41% K -1.78% G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47% NM 53.14%EV -7.12% E -4.09% K -9.62% G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85% NM 27.60%EV -8.89% E -2.65% K -3.78% G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-04 20:00 |
| DraftKings | 4.80I 20.83% NM 19.16%EV -6.78% E -1.41% K -1.78% G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48% NM 53.79%EV -8.72% E -5.10% K -12.28% G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 27.05%EV -7.53% E -2.21% K -3.14% G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-05 01:33 |
| 888sport | 4.80I 20.83% NM 19.16%EV -6.78% E -1.41% K -1.78% G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14% NM 52.55%EV -6.58% E -3.76% K -8.78% G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77% NM 28.29%EV -11.61% E -3.57% K -5.16% G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-04 20:15 |
| William Hill | 4.80I 20.83% NM 19.16%EV -6.78% E -1.41% K -1.78% G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14% NM 52.55%EV -6.58% E -3.76% K -8.78% G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77% NM 28.29%EV -11.61% E -3.57% K -5.16% G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-04 20:15 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 4.80I 20.83% NM 19.16%EV -6.78% E -1.41% K -1.78% G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14% NM 52.55%EV -6.58% E -3.76% K -8.78% G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77% NM 28.29%EV -11.61% E -3.57% K -5.16% G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-04 20:15 |
| 888sport (SE) | 4.80I 20.83% NM 19.16%EV -6.78% E -1.41% K -1.78% G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14% NM 52.55%EV -6.58% E -3.76% K -8.78% G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77% NM 28.29%EV -11.61% E -3.57% K -5.16% G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-04 20:15 |
| Coolbet | 4.75I 21.05% NM 19.72%EV -7.75% E -1.63% K -2.07% G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14% NM 53.52%EV -6.58% E -3.76% K -8.78% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 26.76%EV -4.81% E -1.37% K -1.92% G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-04 20:49 |
| Betway | 4.75I 21.05% NM 19.60%EV -7.75% E -1.63% K -2.07% G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80% NM 53.81%EV -7.65% E -4.42% K -10.48% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 26.60%EV -4.81% E -1.37% K -1.92% G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-05 07:50 |
| Marathon Bet | 4.75I 21.05% NM 19.51%EV -7.75% E -1.63% K -2.07% G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14% NM 53.87%EV -8.18% E -4.76% K -11.37% G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74% NM 26.62%EV -5.35% E -1.54% K -2.16% G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-04 19:30 |
| Betsson | 4.75I 21.05% NM 19.31%EV -7.75% E -1.63% K -2.07% G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14% NM 53.32%EV -8.18% E -4.76% K -11.37% G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85% NM 27.38%EV -8.89% E -2.65% K -3.78% G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-04 19:45 |
| NordicBet | 4.75I 21.05% NM 19.31%EV -7.75% E -1.63% K -2.07% G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14% NM 53.32%EV -8.18% E -4.76% K -11.37% G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85% NM 27.38%EV -8.89% E -2.65% K -3.78% G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-04 19:45 |
| Unibet (UK) | 4.75I 21.05% NM 19.29%EV -7.75% E -1.63% K -2.07% G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80% NM 52.95%EV -7.65% E -4.42% K -10.48% G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30% NM 27.76%EV -10.25% E -3.11% K -4.46% G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-07-04 19:45 |
| BetMGM | 4.75I 21.05% NM 19.26%EV -7.75% E -1.63% K -2.07% G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47% NM 52.58%EV -7.12% E -4.09% K -9.62% G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77% NM 28.15%EV -11.61% E -3.57% K -5.16% G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-07-05 10:00 |
| 1xBet | 4.73I 21.14% NM 19.69%EV -8.14% E -1.72% K -2.18% G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47% NM 53.54%EV -7.12% E -4.09% K -9.62% G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74% NM 26.77%EV -5.35% E -1.54% K -2.16% G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-04 19:45 |
| FanDuel | 4.70I 21.28% NM 19.37%EV -8.72% E -1.86% K -2.36% G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17% NM 53.86%EV -9.79% E -5.79% K -14.18% G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 26.77%EV -7.53% E -2.21% K -3.14% G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-07-04 19:20 |
| BetRivers | 4.70I 21.28% NM 19.31%EV -8.72% E -1.86% K -2.36% G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52% NM 54.01%EV -10.32% E -6.14% K -15.18% G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 26.69%EV -7.53% E -2.21% K -3.14% G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-07-05 02:15 |
| LeoVegas | 4.65I 21.51% NM 19.52%EV -9.69% E -2.08% K -2.66% G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82% NM 53.39%EV -9.25% E -5.44% K -13.22% G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85% NM 27.09%EV -8.89% E -2.65% K -3.78% G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-07-05 02:15 |
| Bet Victor | 4.60I 21.74% NM 19.61%EV -10.66% E -2.32% K -2.96% G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82% NM 53.06%EV -9.25% E -5.44% K -13.22% G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30% NM 27.33%EV -10.25% E -3.11% K -4.46% G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-07-04 19:44 |
| Codere (IT) | 4.60I 21.74% NM 19.59%EV -10.66% E -2.32% K -2.96% G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48% NM 52.69%EV -8.72% E -5.10% K -12.28% G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77% NM 27.72%EV -11.61% E -3.57% K -5.16% G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-07-04 19:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 4.60I 21.74% NM 19.44%EV -10.66% E -2.32% K -2.96% G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82% NM 52.61%EV -9.25% E -5.44% K -13.22% G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25% NM 27.95%EV -12.97% E -4.05% K -5.89% G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-05 09:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 4.60I 21.74% NM 19.44%EV -10.66% E -2.32% K -2.96% G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82% NM 52.61%EV -9.25% E -5.44% K -13.22% G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25% NM 27.95%EV -12.97% E -4.05% K -5.89% G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-05 09:55 |
| Neds | 4.60I 21.74% NM 19.44%EV -10.66% E -2.32% K -2.96% G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82% NM 52.61%EV -9.25% E -5.44% K -13.22% G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25% NM 27.95%EV -12.97% E -4.05% K -5.89% G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-05 09:55 |
| Coral | 4.60I 21.74% NM 19.44%EV -10.66% E -2.32% K -2.96% G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82% NM 52.61%EV -9.25% E -5.44% K -13.22% G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25% NM 27.95%EV -12.97% E -4.05% K -5.89% G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-05 09:55 |
| Grosvenor | 4.60I 21.74% NM 19.44%EV -10.66% E -2.32% K -2.96% G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24% NM 53.87%EV -11.39% E -6.86% K -17.25% G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85% NM 26.69%EV -8.89% E -2.65% K -3.78% G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-05 02:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 4.60I 21.74% NM 19.38%EV -10.66% E -2.32% K -2.96% G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61% NM 54.02%EV -11.92% E -7.22% K -18.34% G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85% NM 26.61%EV -8.89% E -2.65% K -3.78% G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-07-05 02:14 |
| TABtouch | 4.60I 21.74% NM 19.31%EV -10.66% E -2.32% K -2.96% G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98% NM 54.17%EV -12.45% E -7.59% K -19.46% G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85% NM 26.52%EV -8.89% E -2.65% K -3.78% G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-07-05 02:15 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 4.50I 22.22% NM 20.37%EV -12.60% E -2.80% K -3.60% G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47% NM 52.68%EV -7.12% E -4.09% K -9.62% G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 26.96%EV -7.53% E -2.21% K -3.14% G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-04 19:20 |
| Paddy Power | 4.50I 22.22% NM 20.12%EV -12.60% E -2.80% K -3.60% G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82% NM 53.25%EV -9.25% E -5.44% K -13.22% G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 26.63%EV -7.53% E -2.21% K -3.14% G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-07-04 19:25 |
| PlayUp | 4.50I 22.22% NM 20.09%EV -12.60% E -2.80% K -3.60% G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14% NM 51.66%EV -6.58% E -3.76% K -8.78% G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25% NM 28.25%EV -12.97% E -4.05% K -5.89% G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-07-05 02:15 |
| betfred_uk | 4.50I 22.22% NM 19.96%EV -12.60% E -2.80% K -3.60% G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82% NM 52.83%EV -9.25% E -5.44% K -13.22% G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30% NM 27.21%EV -10.25% E -3.11% K -4.46% G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-07-04 19:20 |
| BoyleSports | 4.50I 22.22% NM 19.69%EV -12.60% E -2.80% K -3.60% G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88% NM 53.05%EV -10.85% E -6.50% K -16.20% G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77% NM 27.26%EV -11.61% E -3.57% K -5.16% G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-07-05 06:29 |
| LiveScore Bet | 4.50I 22.22% NM 19.51%EV -12.60% E -2.80% K -3.60% G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35% NM 53.87%EV -12.99% E -7.97% K -20.62% G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30% NM 26.61%EV -10.25% E -3.11% K -4.46% G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-07-05 02:15 |
| Virgin Bet | 4.50I 22.22% NM 19.51%EV -12.60% E -2.80% K -3.60% G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35% NM 53.87%EV -12.99% E -7.97% K -20.62% G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30% NM 26.61%EV -10.25% E -3.11% K -4.46% G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-07-05 02:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Ponte Preta (Local) | Criciuma (Visit) | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets | 4.30I 23.26% | 1.65I 60.61% | 3.05I 32.79% | 16.6% | 2026-07-04 19:45 |