Language:English
Grêmio Novorizontino v Botafogo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Grêmio Novorizontino (Local)
Prediction 49.38%2.03fair odd
EV -4.70%
Edge -2.43%
Kelly -5.05%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.93
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.30%49.51%49.41%52.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.841.851.9358.48%54.39%54.05%51.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Botafogo (Visit)
Prediction 21.43%4.67fair odd
EV +2.86%
Edge +0.597%
Kelly +0.754%
Growth +0.022%
assuming max odds 4.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.23%21.31%21.37%23.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.394.354.8025.00%22.77%22.99%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.19%3.43fair odd
EV -0.757%
Edge -0.223%
Kelly -0.315%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.30%29.18%29.22%30.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.173.153.4035.71%31.52%31.75%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Grêmio Novorizontino (Local): 49.38%; Botafogo (Visit): 21.43%; Draw: 29.19%. For Botafogo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.67. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.86%.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.43%EV -11.61%E -6.49%K -14.69%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV +2.86%E +0.597%K +0.754%G +0.022% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.02%EV -2.22%E -0.662%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-10 22:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.43%EV -11.61%E -6.49%K -14.69%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV +2.86%E +0.597%K +0.754%G +0.022% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.02%EV -2.22%E -0.662%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-10 22:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.43%EV -11.61%E -6.49%K -14.69%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV +2.86%E +0.597%K +0.754%G +0.022% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.02%EV -2.22%E -0.662%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-10 22:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.43%EV -11.61%E -6.49%K -14.69%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV +2.86%E +0.597%K +0.754%G +0.022% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.02%EV -2.22%E -0.662%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-10 22:24 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.43%EV -11.61%E -6.49%K -14.69%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV +2.86%E +0.597%K +0.754%G +0.022% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.02%EV -2.22%E -0.662%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-10 22:24 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.57%EV -12.10%E -6.80%K -15.52%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.50%EV +2.86%E +0.597%K +0.754%G +0.022% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -2.22%E -0.662%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-10 21:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.68%EV -12.10%E -6.80%K -15.52%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV +1.79%E +0.378%K +0.478%G +0.009% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -0.757%E -0.223%K -0.315%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-10 22:24 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.68%EV -12.10%E -6.80%K -15.52%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV +1.79%E +0.378%K +0.478%G +0.009% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -0.757%E -0.223%K -0.315%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-10 22:24 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.73%EV -4.70%E -2.43%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 4.71I 21.23%NM 20.38%EV +0.936%E +0.199%K +0.252%G +0.002% | 3.21I 31.15%NM 29.90%EV -6.30%E -1.96%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-10 22:09 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.84%EV -7.16%E -3.81%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.94%EV +0.722%E +0.154%K +0.195%G +0.001% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -9.51%E -3.07%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-10 20:34 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.84%EV -7.16%E -3.81%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.94%EV +0.722%E +0.154%K +0.195%G +0.001% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -9.51%E -3.07%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-10 20:34 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.33%EV -13.58%E -7.76%K -18.11%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.49%EV +0.722%E +0.154%K +0.195%G +0.001% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.18%EV -5.14%E -1.58%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-10 22:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.54%EV -15.07%E -8.76%K -20.92%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.23%EV +0.722%E +0.154%K +0.195%G +0.001% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -6.59%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-10 22:09 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -13.58%E -7.76%K -18.11%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.99%EV -1.42%E -0.309%K -0.395%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.45%EV -2.22%E -0.662%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-10 22:24 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.26%EV -14.08%E -8.09%K -19.02%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.77%EV -1.42%E -0.309%K -0.395%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -5.14%E -1.58%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-10 22:24 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.32%EV -15.07%E -8.76%K -20.92%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.56%EV -1.42%E -0.309%K -0.395%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -6.59%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-10 22:24 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.32%EV -15.07%E -8.76%K -20.92%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.56%EV -1.42%E -0.309%K -0.395%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -6.59%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-10 22:24 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.16%EV -6.18%E -3.25%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 4.51I 22.17%NM 20.71%EV -3.35%E -0.743%K -0.954%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -9.51%E -3.07%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-10 22:19 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -5.68%E -2.98%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.00%EV -3.56%E -0.792%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.53%EV -6.59%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-10 21:19 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 49.67%EV -8.15%E -4.38%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -3.56%E -0.792%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.80%EV -9.51%E -3.07%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-10 22:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 52.68%EV -15.56%E -9.10%K -21.91%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.02%EV -3.56%E -0.792%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -3.68%E -1.11%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-05-10 22:24 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 49.79%EV -8.15%E -4.38%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.81%EV -4.64%E -1.04%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.40%EV -8.05%E -2.56%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-10 22:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.29%EV -7.16%E -3.81%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.30%EV -6.78%E -1.56%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -8.05%E -2.56%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-10 21:24 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.05%EV -7.16%E -3.81%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.20%EV -6.78%E -1.56%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -9.51%E -3.07%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-10 21:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.05%EV -7.16%E -3.81%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.20%EV -6.78%E -1.56%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -9.51%E -3.07%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-10 21:19 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.13%EV -5.68%E -2.98%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.23%EV -7.21%E -1.66%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -12.43%E -4.14%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-10 22:24 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.13%EV -5.68%E -2.98%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.23%EV -7.21%E -1.66%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -12.43%E -4.14%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-10 22:24 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.13%EV -5.68%E -2.98%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.23%EV -7.21%E -1.66%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -12.43%E -4.14%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-10 22:25 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.07%EV -7.66%E -4.10%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.34%EV -7.85%E -1.83%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -9.51%E -3.07%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-10 21:24 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.09%EV -6.18%E -3.25%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.21%EV -9.99%E -2.38%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -5.14%E -1.58%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-10 21:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.09%EV -6.18%E -3.25%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.21%EV -9.99%E -2.38%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -5.14%E -1.58%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-10 21:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.27%EV -7.66%E -4.10%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.94%EV -9.99%E -2.38%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -6.59%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-10 21:29 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.27%EV -7.66%E -4.10%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.94%EV -9.99%E -2.38%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -6.59%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-10 21:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.21%EV -7.16%E -3.81%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.58%EV -9.99%E -2.38%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.21%EV -12.43%E -4.14%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-10 22:04 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -11.11%E -6.17%K -13.89%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -9.99%E -2.38%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -9.51%E -3.07%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-05-10 21:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.56%EV -7.66%E -4.10%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.15%EV -12.14%E -2.96%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.29%EV -9.51%E -3.07%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-10 22:19 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.10%EV -9.63%E -5.26%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.92%EV -12.14%E -2.96%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -9.51%E -3.07%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-10 22:23 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.42%EV -5.68%E -2.98%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -14.28%E -3.57%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -5.14%E -1.58%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-10 22:24 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -5.68%E -2.98%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -14.28%E -3.57%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -6.59%E -2.06%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-10 21:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.30%EV -5.68%E -2.98%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.59%EV -14.28%E -3.57%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -12.43%E -4.14%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-10 22:24 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.56%EV -8.65%E -4.67%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -14.28%E -3.57%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -9.51%E -3.07%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-10 22:24 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.56%EV -8.65%E -4.67%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -14.28%E -3.57%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -9.51%E -3.07%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-10 22:24 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.56%EV -8.65%E -4.67%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -14.28%E -3.57%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -9.51%E -3.07%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-10 22:19 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.56%EV -8.65%E -4.67%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -14.28%E -3.57%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -9.51%E -3.07%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-10 22:24 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.56%EV -8.65%E -4.67%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -14.28%E -3.57%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -9.51%E -3.07%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-10 21:29 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.83%EV -9.63%E -5.26%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -14.28%E -3.57%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -9.51%E -3.07%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-10 21:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 47.37%EV -9.63%E -5.26%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.67%EV -14.28%E -3.57%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 30.96%EV -18.27%E -6.53%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 15.4% | 2026-05-10 21:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.94I 51.55%NM 50.84% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.72% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.44% | 1.4% | 2026-05-10 22:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.94I 51.55%NM 50.84% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.72% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.44% | 1.4% | 2026-05-10 22:14 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.94I 51.55%NM 50.84% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.72% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.44% | 1.4% | 2026-05-10 22:14 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.97% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.67% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.36% | 1.7% | 2026-05-10 22:24 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.67% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.85% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.48% | 2.8% | 2026-05-10 22:24 |