Language:English
Fortaleza v Sport Recife
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Fortaleza (Local)
Prediction 50.25%1.99fair odd
EV -4.01%
Edge -2.10%
Kelly -4.41%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.91
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.99%50.29%50.31%53.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.821.831.9158.82%55.03%54.64%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sport Recife (Visit)
Prediction 21.91%4.56fair odd
EV +2.98%
Edge +0.634%
Kelly +0.805%
Growth +0.024%
assuming max odds 4.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.61%21.84%21.85%22.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.214.254.7025.64%23.73%23.53%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.84%3.59fair odd
EV -5.36%
Edge -1.58%
Kelly -2.23%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.97%27.87%27.84%29.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.273.303.4034.72%30.62%30.30%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fortaleza (Local): 50.25%; Sport Recife (Visit): 21.91%; Draw: 27.84%. For Sport Recife (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.56. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.98%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.48%EV -10.55%E -5.93%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.88%EV +2.98%E +0.634%K +0.805%G +0.024% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 27.64%EV -5.92%E -1.75%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-28 21:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.06%EV -14.57%E -8.57%K -20.81%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV +0.788%E +0.171%K +0.219%G +0.002% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -8.14%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-06-28 21:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.61%EV -4.52%E -2.38%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 4.59I 21.79%NM 20.95%EV +0.569%E +0.124%K +0.158%G +0.001% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 28.45%EV -5.92%E -1.75%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-06-28 21:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.10%EV -8.54%E -4.69%K -10.41%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -3.59%E -0.817%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -6.75%E -2.02%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-28 21:09 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.10%EV -8.54%E -4.69%K -10.41%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -3.59%E -0.817%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -6.75%E -2.02%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-28 21:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.10%EV -8.54%E -4.69%K -10.41%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -3.59%E -0.817%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -6.75%E -2.02%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-28 21:09 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.10%EV -8.54%E -4.69%K -10.41%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -3.59%E -0.817%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -6.75%E -2.02%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-28 21:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.10%EV -8.54%E -4.69%K -10.41%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -3.59%E -0.817%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -6.75%E -2.02%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-28 21:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.10%EV -8.54%E -4.69%K -10.41%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -3.59%E -0.817%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -6.75%E -2.02%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-28 21:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.10%EV -8.54%E -4.69%K -10.41%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -3.59%E -0.817%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -6.75%E -2.02%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-28 21:09 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.66%EV -8.04%E -4.39%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.07%EV -3.59%E -0.817%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 28.27%EV -8.70%E -2.65%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-06-28 21:09 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.41%EV -8.04%E -4.39%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.21%EV -4.69%E -1.08%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.38%EV -9.53%E -2.93%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-06-28 21:18 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.41%EV -8.04%E -4.39%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.21%EV -4.69%E -1.08%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.38%EV -9.53%E -2.93%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-06-28 21:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.31%EV -7.03%E -3.80%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.49%EV -5.13%E -1.18%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.20%EV -8.14%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-28 21:19 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.41%EV -7.03%E -3.80%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.11%EV -5.13%E -1.18%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -13.71%E -4.42%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-06-28 21:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.41%EV -7.03%E -3.80%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.11%EV -5.13%E -1.18%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -13.71%E -4.42%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-06-28 21:19 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.41%EV -7.03%E -3.80%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.11%EV -5.13%E -1.18%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -13.71%E -4.42%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-06-28 21:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.41%EV -7.03%E -3.80%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.11%EV -5.13%E -1.18%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -13.71%E -4.42%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-06-28 21:19 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.64%EV -4.01%E -2.10%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.05%EV -5.79%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV -6.75%E -2.02%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-28 21:19 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.70%EV -5.02%E -2.66%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -5.79%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -8.14%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-28 21:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.70%EV -5.02%E -2.66%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -5.79%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -8.14%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-28 21:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 50.24%EV -7.53%E -4.09%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.75%EV -6.88%E -1.62%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.01%EV -8.14%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-28 21:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.72%EV -8.54%E -4.69%K -10.41%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.72%EV -6.88%E -1.62%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.56%EV -6.75%E -2.02%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-28 21:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.72%EV -8.54%E -4.69%K -10.41%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.72%EV -6.88%E -1.62%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.56%EV -6.75%E -2.02%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-28 21:09 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 50.71%EV -10.05%E -5.61%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.36%EV -6.88%E -1.62%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -9.53%E -2.93%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-06-28 21:09 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.99%EV -5.52%E -2.94%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -7.98%E -1.90%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -5.36%E -1.58%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-28 21:09 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.38%EV -8.54%E -4.69%K -10.41%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.83%EV -7.98%E -1.90%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -8.14%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-06-28 21:09 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 50.79%EV -11.55%E -6.56%K -15.20%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.28%EV -7.98%E -1.90%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.93%EV -10.93%E -3.41%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-06-28 21:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.12%EV -7.03%E -3.80%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -10.17%E -2.48%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -5.36%E -1.58%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-06-28 21:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.39%EV -8.04%E -4.39%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -10.17%E -2.48%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -5.36%E -1.58%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-06-28 21:08 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.67%EV -12.06%E -6.89%K -16.07%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.63%EV -10.17%E -2.48%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.71%EV -10.93%E -3.41%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-06-28 21:09 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 50.81%EV -12.56%E -7.22%K -16.97%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.56%EV -10.17%E -2.48%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.63%EV -10.93%E -3.41%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-06-28 21:09 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 50.88%EV -13.56%E -7.89%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.34%EV -10.17%E -2.48%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.78%EV -12.32%E -3.91%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-06-28 21:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 50.88%EV -13.56%E -7.89%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.34%EV -10.17%E -2.48%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.78%EV -12.32%E -3.91%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-06-28 21:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 50.88%EV -13.56%E -7.89%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.34%EV -10.17%E -2.48%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.78%EV -12.32%E -3.91%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-06-28 21:09 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.16%EV -6.02%E -3.22%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -12.36%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -8.14%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-06-28 21:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.11%EV -8.04%E -4.39%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -12.36%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -5.36%E -1.58%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-06-28 21:09 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -7.03%E -3.80%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -12.36%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -8.14%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-06-28 21:10 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.49%EV -8.04%E -4.39%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -12.36%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.87%EV -9.53%E -2.93%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-06-28 21:09 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.49%EV -8.04%E -4.39%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -12.36%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.87%EV -9.53%E -2.93%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-06-28 21:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.11%EV -9.54%E -5.30%K -11.93%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -12.36%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -8.14%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-06-28 21:10 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.11%EV -9.54%E -5.30%K -11.93%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -12.36%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -8.14%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-06-28 21:09 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.61%EV -12.06%E -6.89%K -16.07%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.14%EV -12.36%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.25%EV -9.53%E -2.93%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-06-28 21:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 49.18%EV -13.06%E -7.55%K -17.89%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.27%EV -12.36%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.54%EV -19.83%E -6.89%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 17.5% | 2026-06-28 21:09 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.99%EV -8.04%E -4.39%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.99%EV -14.55%E -3.73%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -10.93%E -3.41%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-06-28 21:09 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.99%EV -8.04%E -4.39%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.99%EV -14.55%E -3.73%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -10.93%E -3.41%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-06-28 21:09 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.99%EV -8.04%E -4.39%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.99%EV -14.55%E -3.73%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -10.93%E -3.41%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-06-28 21:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.99%EV -8.04%E -4.39%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.99%EV -14.55%E -3.73%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -10.93%E -3.41%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-06-28 21:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.94I 51.55%NM 51.28% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.30% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.42% | 0.5% | 2026-06-28 21:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.94I 51.55%NM 51.28% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.30% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.42% | 0.5% | 2026-06-28 21:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.94I 51.55%NM 51.28% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.30% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.42% | 0.5% | 2026-06-28 21:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.94I 51.55%NM 51.28% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.30% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.42% | 0.5% | 2026-06-28 21:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.11% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.44% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.44% | 1.9% | 2026-06-28 21:20 |