La escuela de los momiosEspañol
Fortaleza v Sport Recife
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Fortaleza (Local)
Predicción 50.25%1.99momio equitativo
EV -4.01%
Ventaja -2.10%
Kelly -4.41%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.91
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
48.99%50.29%50.31%53.06%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.701.821.831.9158.82%55.03%54.64%52.36%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Sport Recife (Visitante)
Predicción 21.91%4.56momio equitativo
EV +2.98%
Ventaja +0.634%
Kelly +0.805%
Crecimiento +0.024%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.70
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.61%21.84%21.85%22.99%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.904.214.254.7025.64%23.73%23.53%21.28%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 27.84%3.59momio equitativo
EV -5.36%
Ventaja -1.58%
Kelly -2.23%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.97%27.87%27.84%29.54%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.273.303.4034.72%30.62%30.30%29.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (48 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.48%EV -10.55%E -5.93%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.88%EV +2.98%E +0.634%K +0.805%G +0.024% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 27.64%EV -5.92%E -1.75%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-28 21:20 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.06%EV -14.57%E -8.57%K -20.81%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV +0.788%E +0.171%K +0.219%G +0.002% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -8.14%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-06-28 21:20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.61%EV -4.52%E -2.38%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 4.59I 21.79%NM 20.95%EV +0.569%E +0.124%K +0.158%G +0.001% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 28.45%EV -5.92%E -1.75%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-06-28 21:20 |
| Unibet | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.10%EV -8.54%E -4.69%K -10.41%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -3.59%E -0.817%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -6.75%E -2.02%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-28 21:09 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.10%EV -8.54%E -4.69%K -10.41%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -3.59%E -0.817%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -6.75%E -2.02%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-28 21:10 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.10%EV -8.54%E -4.69%K -10.41%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -3.59%E -0.817%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -6.75%E -2.02%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-28 21:09 |
| Casumo | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.10%EV -8.54%E -4.69%K -10.41%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -3.59%E -0.817%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -6.75%E -2.02%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-28 21:10 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.10%EV -8.54%E -4.69%K -10.41%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -3.59%E -0.817%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -6.75%E -2.02%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-28 21:10 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.10%EV -8.54%E -4.69%K -10.41%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -3.59%E -0.817%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -6.75%E -2.02%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-28 21:10 |
| betPARX | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.10%EV -8.54%E -4.69%K -10.41%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -3.59%E -0.817%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -6.75%E -2.02%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-28 21:09 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.66%EV -8.04%E -4.39%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.07%EV -3.59%E -0.817%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 28.27%EV -8.70%E -2.65%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-06-28 21:09 |
| Bovada | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.41%EV -8.04%E -4.39%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.21%EV -4.69%E -1.08%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.38%EV -9.53%E -2.93%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-06-28 21:18 |
| BetUS | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.41%EV -8.04%E -4.39%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.21%EV -4.69%E -1.08%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.38%EV -9.53%E -2.93%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-06-28 21:19 |
| Betway | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.31%EV -7.03%E -3.80%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.49%EV -5.13%E -1.18%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.20%EV -8.14%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-28 21:19 |
| 888sport | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.41%EV -7.03%E -3.80%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.11%EV -5.13%E -1.18%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -13.71%E -4.42%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-06-28 21:20 |
| William Hill | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.41%EV -7.03%E -3.80%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.11%EV -5.13%E -1.18%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -13.71%E -4.42%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-06-28 21:19 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.41%EV -7.03%E -3.80%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.11%EV -5.13%E -1.18%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -13.71%E -4.42%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-06-28 21:20 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.41%EV -7.03%E -3.80%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.11%EV -5.13%E -1.18%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -13.71%E -4.42%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-06-28 21:19 |
| DraftKings | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.64%EV -4.01%E -2.10%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.05%EV -5.79%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV -6.75%E -2.02%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-28 21:19 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.70%EV -5.02%E -2.66%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -5.79%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -8.14%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-28 21:20 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.70%EV -5.02%E -2.66%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -5.79%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -8.14%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-28 21:20 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.84I 54.35%NM 50.24%EV -7.53%E -4.09%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.75%EV -6.88%E -1.62%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.01%EV -8.14%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-28 21:10 |
| Betsson | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.72%EV -8.54%E -4.69%K -10.41%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.72%EV -6.88%E -1.62%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.56%EV -6.75%E -2.02%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-28 21:10 |
| NordicBet | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.72%EV -8.54%E -4.69%K -10.41%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.72%EV -6.88%E -1.62%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.56%EV -6.75%E -2.02%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-28 21:09 |
| BetRivers | 1.79I 55.87%NM 50.71%EV -10.05%E -5.61%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.36%EV -6.88%E -1.62%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -9.53%E -2.93%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-06-28 21:09 |
| Coolbet | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.99%EV -5.52%E -2.94%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -7.98%E -1.90%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -5.36%E -1.58%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-28 21:09 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.38%EV -8.54%E -4.69%K -10.41%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.83%EV -7.98%E -1.90%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -8.14%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-06-28 21:09 |
| Grosvenor | 1.76I 56.82%NM 50.79%EV -11.55%E -6.56%K -15.20%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.28%EV -7.98%E -1.90%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.93%EV -10.93%E -3.41%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-06-28 21:09 |
| SportsBet | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.12%EV -7.03%E -3.80%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -10.17%E -2.48%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -5.36%E -1.58%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-06-28 21:10 |
| FanDuel | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.39%EV -8.04%E -4.39%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -10.17%E -2.48%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -5.36%E -1.58%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-06-28 21:08 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.67%EV -12.06%E -6.89%K -16.07%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.63%EV -10.17%E -2.48%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.71%EV -10.93%E -3.41%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-06-28 21:09 |
| TABtouch | 1.74I 57.47%NM 50.81%EV -12.56%E -7.22%K -16.97%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.56%EV -10.17%E -2.48%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.63%EV -10.93%E -3.41%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-06-28 21:09 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.72I 58.14%NM 50.88%EV -13.56%E -7.89%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.34%EV -10.17%E -2.48%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.78%EV -12.32%E -3.91%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-06-28 21:10 |
| LeoVegas | 1.72I 58.14%NM 50.88%EV -13.56%E -7.89%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.34%EV -10.17%E -2.48%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.78%EV -12.32%E -3.91%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-06-28 21:10 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.72I 58.14%NM 50.88%EV -13.56%E -7.89%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.34%EV -10.17%E -2.48%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.78%EV -12.32%E -3.91%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-06-28 21:09 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.16%EV -6.02%E -3.22%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -12.36%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -8.14%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-06-28 21:10 |
| theScore Bet | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.11%EV -8.04%E -4.39%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -12.36%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -5.36%E -1.58%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-06-28 21:09 |
| BetMGM | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -7.03%E -3.80%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -12.36%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -8.14%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-06-28 21:10 |
| betfred_uk | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.49%EV -8.04%E -4.39%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -12.36%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.87%EV -9.53%E -2.93%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-06-28 21:09 |
| PlayUp | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.49%EV -8.04%E -4.39%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -12.36%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.87%EV -9.53%E -2.93%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-06-28 21:09 |
| Paddy Power | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.11%EV -9.54%E -5.30%K -11.93%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -12.36%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -8.14%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-06-28 21:10 |
| Bet Victor | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.11%EV -9.54%E -5.30%K -11.93%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -12.36%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -8.14%E -2.47%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-06-28 21:09 |
| BoyleSports | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.61%EV -12.06%E -6.89%K -16.07%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.14%EV -12.36%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.25%EV -9.53%E -2.93%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-06-28 21:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.73I 57.80%NM 49.18%EV -13.06%E -7.55%K -17.89%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.27%EV -12.36%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.54%EV -19.83%E -6.89%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 17.5% | 2026-06-28 21:09 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.99%EV -8.04%E -4.39%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.99%EV -14.55%E -3.73%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -10.93%E -3.41%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-06-28 21:09 |
| Neds | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.99%EV -8.04%E -4.39%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.99%EV -14.55%E -3.73%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -10.93%E -3.41%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-06-28 21:09 |
| Coral | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.99%EV -8.04%E -4.39%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.99%EV -14.55%E -3.73%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -10.93%E -3.41%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-06-28 21:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.99%EV -8.04%E -4.39%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.99%EV -14.55%E -3.73%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -10.93%E -3.41%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-06-28 21:10 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 1.94I 51.55%NM 51.28% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.30% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.42% | 0.5% | 2026-06-28 21:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.94I 51.55%NM 51.28% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.30% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.42% | 0.5% | 2026-06-28 21:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.94I 51.55%NM 51.28% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.30% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.42% | 0.5% | 2026-06-28 21:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.94I 51.55%NM 51.28% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.30% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.42% | 0.5% | 2026-06-28 21:20 |
| Smarkets | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.11% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.44% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.44% | 1.9% | 2026-06-28 21:20 |