The School of OddsBotafogo v Avai
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
Head to Head
Botafogo (Local)
Prediction 54.01%1.85fair odd
EV -3.85%
Edge -2.16%
Kelly -4.94%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.78
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.82%53.93%53.99%56.42%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.601.721.721.7863%58%58%56%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Avai (Visit)
Prediction 18.53%5.40fair odd
EV +0.272%
Edge +0.050%
Kelly +0.062%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 5.41
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.03%18.67%18.57%20.67%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.254.814.785.4124%21%21%18%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Draw
Prediction 27.45%3.64fair odd
EV -3.65%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -1.45%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.51
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.55%27.40%27.44%28.41%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.203.343.303.5131%30%30%28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.88%EV -5.47%E -3.13%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 5.41I 18.48%NM 17.75%EV +0.272%E +0.050%K +0.062%G +0.000% | 3.51I 28.49%NM 27.36%EV -3.65%E -1.04%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-06 21:50 |
| SportsBet | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.92%EV -8.17%E -4.81%K -11.68%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.62%EV -1.77%E -0.333%K -0.411%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -6.67%E -1.96%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-06 21:30 |
| FanDuel | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.07%EV -8.71%E -5.16%K -12.63%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.56%EV -1.77%E -0.333%K -0.411%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -6.67%E -1.96%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-06 21:30 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.42%EV -13.58%E -8.49%K -22.63%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.03%EV -1.77%E -0.333%K -0.411%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.55%EV -6.67%E -1.96%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-07-06 21:15 |
| 1xBet | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.72%EV -6.01%E -3.46%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 5.23I 19.12%NM 17.87%EV -3.06%E -0.586%K -0.724%G +0.000% | 3.29I 30.40%NM 28.41%EV -9.69%E -2.94%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.45%EV -7.09%E -4.12%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.01%EV -3.62%E -0.696%K -0.862%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -6.67%E -1.96%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.45%EV -7.09%E -4.12%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.01%EV -3.62%E -0.696%K -0.862%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -6.67%E -1.96%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| Betsson | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.13%EV -7.09%E -4.12%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.08%EV -4.55%E -0.883%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -8.04%E -2.40%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-06 21:40 |
| NordicBet | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.13%EV -7.09%E -4.12%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.08%EV -4.55%E -0.883%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -8.04%E -2.40%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-06 21:40 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.23%EV -7.63%E -4.46%K -10.75%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.01%EV -4.55%E -0.883%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 27.76%EV -8.32%E -2.49%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-06 21:54 |
| Bovada | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.47%EV -8.71%E -5.16%K -12.63%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.05%EV -5.47%E -1.07%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -8.04%E -2.40%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-06 21:49 |
| BetUS | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.47%EV -8.71%E -5.16%K -12.63%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.05%EV -5.47%E -1.07%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -8.04%E -2.40%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-06 21:54 |
| DraftKings | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.20%EV -6.01%E -3.46%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.86%EV -7.33%E -1.47%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.94%EV -3.92%E -1.12%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-06 21:44 |
| Betway | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.77%EV -8.17%E -4.81%K -11.68%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -7.33%E -1.47%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -3.92%E -1.12%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-06 21:20 |
| William Hill | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.24%EV -6.55%E -3.79%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.42%EV -7.33%E -1.47%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.34%EV -10.79%E -3.32%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.24%EV -6.55%E -3.79%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.42%EV -7.33%E -1.47%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.34%EV -10.79%E -3.32%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -8.17%E -4.81%K -11.68%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -7.33%E -1.47%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.77%EV -9.41%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-06 21:40 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -8.17%E -4.81%K -11.68%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -7.33%E -1.47%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.77%EV -9.41%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-06 21:40 |
| Paddy Power | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.35%EV -9.80%E -5.87%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.15%EV -7.33%E -1.47%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -9.41%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-07-06 21:14 |
| LeoVegas | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.03%EV -8.17%E -4.81%K -11.68%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.56%EV -8.25%E -1.67%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.42%EV -8.04%E -2.40%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-07-06 21:44 |
| 888sport | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -5.47%E -3.13%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.16%EV -11.03%E -2.30%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -10.79%E -3.32%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -5.47%E -3.13%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.16%EV -11.03%E -2.30%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -10.79%E -3.32%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.04%EV -8.17%E -4.81%K -11.68%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.78%EV -11.03%E -2.30%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.18%EV -12.16%E -3.80%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-07-06 20:15 |
| BetMGM | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.24%EV -7.63%E -4.46%K -10.75%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.17%EV -11.96%E -2.52%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -9.41%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| Bet Victor | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.83%EV -9.80%E -5.87%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.93%EV -11.96%E -2.52%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -9.41%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-07-06 21:48 |
| BoyleSports | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.59%EV -12.50%E -7.71%K -20.15%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.62%EV -11.96%E -2.52%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.80%EV -9.41%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-07-06 20:00 |
| Unibet | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.55%EV -3.85%E -2.16%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -14.74%E -3.20%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -5.30%E -1.53%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| Casumo | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.55%EV -3.85%E -2.16%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -14.74%E -3.20%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -5.30%E -1.53%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.55%EV -3.85%E -2.16%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -14.74%E -3.20%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -5.30%E -1.53%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.55%EV -3.85%E -2.16%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -14.74%E -3.20%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -5.30%E -1.53%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| betPARX | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.55%EV -3.85%E -2.16%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -14.74%E -3.20%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -5.30%E -1.53%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-06 21:54 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.69%EV -4.39%E -2.48%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -14.74%E -3.20%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -5.30%E -1.53%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.69%EV -4.39%E -2.48%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -14.74%E -3.20%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -5.30%E -1.53%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| theScore Bet | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.91%EV -6.01%E -3.46%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -14.74%E -3.20%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -6.67%E -1.96%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-06 20:05 |
| PlayUp | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.54%EV -7.09%E -4.12%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.65%EV -14.74%E -3.20%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -10.79%E -3.32%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.82%EV -4.39%E -2.48%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -16.59%E -3.69%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.80%EV -9.41%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-06 20:10 |
| betfred_uk | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.17%EV -6.55%E -3.79%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.06%EV -16.59%E -3.69%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.77%EV -10.79%E -3.32%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-07-06 20:05 |
| Neds | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.61%EV -8.17%E -4.81%K -11.68%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.87%EV -16.59%E -3.69%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -10.79%E -3.32%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.61%EV -8.17%E -4.81%K -11.68%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.87%EV -16.59%E -3.69%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -10.79%E -3.32%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| Coral | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.61%EV -8.17%E -4.81%K -11.68%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.87%EV -16.59%E -3.69%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -10.79%E -3.32%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-06 21:54 |
| BetRivers | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.87%EV -5.47%E -3.13%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.63%EV -18.45%E -4.19%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -9.41%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-07-06 21:45 |
| Grosvenor | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.30%EV -7.09%E -4.12%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.44%EV -18.45%E -4.19%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.26%EV -9.41%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| TABtouch | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.25%EV -8.17%E -4.81%K -11.68%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.42%EV -19.37%E -4.45%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.33%EV -10.79%E -3.32%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.71I 58.48%NM 51.98%EV -7.63%E -4.46%K -10.75%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.67%EV -20.30%E -4.72%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.35%EV -10.79%E -3.32%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.68I 59.52%NM 52.20%EV -9.25%E -5.51%K -13.61%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.39%EV -20.30%E -4.72%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.41%EV -12.16%E -3.80%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.68I 59.52%NM 52.08%EV -9.25%E -5.51%K -13.61%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 20.59%EV -21.23%E -4.99%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.34%EV -12.16%E -3.80%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-07-06 21:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets | 1.95I 51.28%NM 52.91% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 18.43% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 28.66% | -3.1% | 2026-07-06 21:50 |
| Matchbook | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.59% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.15% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.26% | 0.5% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.42% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.40% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.18% | 0.8% | 2026-07-06 21:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.42% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.40% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.18% | 0.8% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.42% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.40% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.18% | 0.8% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |