La escuela de los momiosBotafogo v Avai
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Botafogo (Local)
Predicción 54.01%1.85momio equitativo
EV -3.85%
Ventaja -2.16%
Kelly -4.94%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.78
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
51.82%53.93%53.99%56.42%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.601.721.721.7862.50%58.18%58.14%56.18%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Avai (Visitante)
Predicción 18.53%5.40momio equitativo
EV +0.272%
Ventaja +0.050%
Kelly +0.062%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.41
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.03%18.67%18.57%20.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.254.814.785.4123.53%20.81%20.94%18.48%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 27.45%3.64momio equitativo
EV -3.65%
Ventaja -1.04%
Kelly -1.45%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.51
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.55%27.40%27.44%28.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.203.343.303.5131.25%29.97%30.30%28.49%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (46 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.88%EV -5.47%E -3.13%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 5.41I 18.48%NM 17.75%EV +0.272%E +0.050%K +0.062%G +0.000% | 3.51I 28.49%NM 27.36%EV -3.65%E -1.04%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-06 21:50 |
| SportsBet | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.92%EV -8.17%E -4.81%K -11.68%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.62%EV -1.77%E -0.333%K -0.411%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -6.67%E -1.96%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-06 21:30 |
| FanDuel | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.07%EV -8.71%E -5.16%K -12.63%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.56%EV -1.77%E -0.333%K -0.411%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -6.67%E -1.96%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-06 21:30 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.42%EV -13.58%E -8.49%K -22.63%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.03%EV -1.77%E -0.333%K -0.411%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.55%EV -6.67%E -1.96%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-07-06 21:15 |
| 1xBet | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.72%EV -6.01%E -3.46%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 5.23I 19.12%NM 17.87%EV -3.06%E -0.586%K -0.724%G +0.000% | 3.29I 30.40%NM 28.41%EV -9.69%E -2.94%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.45%EV -7.09%E -4.12%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.01%EV -3.62%E -0.696%K -0.862%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -6.67%E -1.96%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.45%EV -7.09%E -4.12%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.01%EV -3.62%E -0.696%K -0.862%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -6.67%E -1.96%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| Betsson | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.13%EV -7.09%E -4.12%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.08%EV -4.55%E -0.883%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -8.04%E -2.40%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-06 21:40 |
| NordicBet | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.13%EV -7.09%E -4.12%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.08%EV -4.55%E -0.883%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -8.04%E -2.40%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-06 21:40 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.23%EV -7.63%E -4.46%K -10.75%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.01%EV -4.55%E -0.883%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 27.76%EV -8.32%E -2.49%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-06 21:54 |
| Bovada | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.47%EV -8.71%E -5.16%K -12.63%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.05%EV -5.47%E -1.07%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -8.04%E -2.40%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-06 21:49 |
| BetUS | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.47%EV -8.71%E -5.16%K -12.63%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.05%EV -5.47%E -1.07%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -8.04%E -2.40%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-06 21:54 |
| DraftKings | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.20%EV -6.01%E -3.46%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.86%EV -7.33%E -1.47%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.94%EV -3.92%E -1.12%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-06 21:44 |
| Betway | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.77%EV -8.17%E -4.81%K -11.68%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -7.33%E -1.47%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -3.92%E -1.12%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-06 21:20 |
| William Hill | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.24%EV -6.55%E -3.79%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.42%EV -7.33%E -1.47%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.34%EV -10.79%E -3.32%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.24%EV -6.55%E -3.79%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.42%EV -7.33%E -1.47%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.34%EV -10.79%E -3.32%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -8.17%E -4.81%K -11.68%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -7.33%E -1.47%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.77%EV -9.41%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-06 21:40 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -8.17%E -4.81%K -11.68%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -7.33%E -1.47%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.77%EV -9.41%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-06 21:40 |
| Paddy Power | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.35%EV -9.80%E -5.87%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.15%EV -7.33%E -1.47%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -9.41%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-07-06 21:14 |
| LeoVegas | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.03%EV -8.17%E -4.81%K -11.68%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.56%EV -8.25%E -1.67%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.42%EV -8.04%E -2.40%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-07-06 21:44 |
| 888sport | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -5.47%E -3.13%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.16%EV -11.03%E -2.30%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -10.79%E -3.32%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -5.47%E -3.13%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.16%EV -11.03%E -2.30%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -10.79%E -3.32%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.04%EV -8.17%E -4.81%K -11.68%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.78%EV -11.03%E -2.30%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.18%EV -12.16%E -3.80%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-07-06 20:15 |
| BetMGM | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.24%EV -7.63%E -4.46%K -10.75%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.17%EV -11.96%E -2.52%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -9.41%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| Bet Victor | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.83%EV -9.80%E -5.87%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.93%EV -11.96%E -2.52%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -9.41%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-07-06 21:48 |
| BoyleSports | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.59%EV -12.50%E -7.71%K -20.15%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.62%EV -11.96%E -2.52%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.80%EV -9.41%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-07-06 20:00 |
| Unibet | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.55%EV -3.85%E -2.16%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -14.74%E -3.20%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -5.30%E -1.53%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| Casumo | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.55%EV -3.85%E -2.16%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -14.74%E -3.20%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -5.30%E -1.53%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.55%EV -3.85%E -2.16%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -14.74%E -3.20%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -5.30%E -1.53%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.55%EV -3.85%E -2.16%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -14.74%E -3.20%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -5.30%E -1.53%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| betPARX | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.55%EV -3.85%E -2.16%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -14.74%E -3.20%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -5.30%E -1.53%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-06 21:54 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.69%EV -4.39%E -2.48%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -14.74%E -3.20%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -5.30%E -1.53%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.69%EV -4.39%E -2.48%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -14.74%E -3.20%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -5.30%E -1.53%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| theScore Bet | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.91%EV -6.01%E -3.46%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -14.74%E -3.20%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -6.67%E -1.96%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-06 20:05 |
| PlayUp | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.54%EV -7.09%E -4.12%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.65%EV -14.74%E -3.20%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -10.79%E -3.32%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.82%EV -4.39%E -2.48%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -16.59%E -3.69%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.80%EV -9.41%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-06 20:10 |
| betfred_uk | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.17%EV -6.55%E -3.79%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.06%EV -16.59%E -3.69%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.77%EV -10.79%E -3.32%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-07-06 20:05 |
| Neds | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.61%EV -8.17%E -4.81%K -11.68%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.87%EV -16.59%E -3.69%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -10.79%E -3.32%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.61%EV -8.17%E -4.81%K -11.68%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.87%EV -16.59%E -3.69%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -10.79%E -3.32%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| Coral | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.61%EV -8.17%E -4.81%K -11.68%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.87%EV -16.59%E -3.69%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -10.79%E -3.32%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-06 21:54 |
| BetRivers | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.87%EV -5.47%E -3.13%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.63%EV -18.45%E -4.19%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -9.41%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-07-06 21:45 |
| Grosvenor | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.30%EV -7.09%E -4.12%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.44%EV -18.45%E -4.19%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.26%EV -9.41%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| TABtouch | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.25%EV -8.17%E -4.81%K -11.68%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.42%EV -19.37%E -4.45%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.33%EV -10.79%E -3.32%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.71I 58.48%NM 51.98%EV -7.63%E -4.46%K -10.75%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.67%EV -20.30%E -4.72%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.35%EV -10.79%E -3.32%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.68I 59.52%NM 52.20%EV -9.25%E -5.51%K -13.61%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.39%EV -20.30%E -4.72%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.41%EV -12.16%E -3.80%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.68I 59.52%NM 52.08%EV -9.25%E -5.51%K -13.61%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 20.59%EV -21.23%E -4.99%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.34%EV -12.16%E -3.80%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-07-06 21:54 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets | 1.95I 51.28%NM 52.91% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 18.43% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 28.66% | -3.1% | 2026-07-06 21:50 |
| Matchbook | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.59% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.15% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.26% | 0.5% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.42% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.40% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.18% | 0.8% | 2026-07-06 21:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.42% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.40% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.18% | 0.8% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.42% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.40% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.18% | 0.8% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |