Language:English
Velez Sarsfield BA v Newells Old Boys
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Velez Sarsfield BA (Local)
Prediction 49.82%2.01fair odd
EV -4.34%
Edge -2.26%
Kelly -4.72%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.92
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.47%50.04%49.67%53.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.841.851.9258.82%54.49%54.05%52.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Newells Old Boys (Visit)
Prediction 21.71%4.61fair odd
EV +5.73%
Edge +1.18%
Kelly +1.48%
Growth +0.085%
assuming max odds 4.87
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.36%21.60%21.88%23.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.314.204.8726.67%23.21%23.81%20.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.47%3.51fair odd
EV +1.06%
Edge +0.299%
Kelly +0.416%
Growth +0.004%
assuming max odds 3.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.47%28.36%28.46%29.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.273.283.5533.33%30.60%30.49%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Velez Sarsfield BA (Local): 49.82%; Newells Old Boys (Visit): 21.71%; Draw: 28.47%. For Newells Old Boys (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.61. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.87, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.73%.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.58%EV -7.33%E -3.94%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 4.87I 20.53%NM 19.70%EV +5.73%E +1.18%K +1.48%G +0.085% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 28.72%EV -4.92%E -1.47%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-04 22:09 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.49%EV -11.82%E -6.68%K -15.34%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.36%EV +4.21%E +0.877%K +1.11%G +0.047% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -6.06%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-04 22:03 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.85%EV -10.82%E -6.04%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.13%EV +2.04%E +0.434%K +0.551%G +0.011% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.03%EV -0.363%E -0.104%K -0.145%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-04 22:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.85%EV -10.82%E -6.04%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.13%EV +2.04%E +0.434%K +0.551%G +0.011% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.03%EV -0.363%E -0.104%K -0.145%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-04 22:09 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.57%EV -6.34%E -3.37%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.45%EV +0.954%E +0.205%K +0.261%G +0.002% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 28.99%EV -6.63%E -2.02%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-04 22:08 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.57%EV -6.34%E -3.37%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.45%EV +0.954%E +0.205%K +0.261%G +0.002% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 28.99%EV -6.63%E -2.02%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-04 22:09 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.10%EV -11.82%E -6.68%K -15.34%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.43%EV -0.132%E -0.029%K -0.037%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV +1.06%E +0.299%K +0.416%G +0.004% | 6.4% | 2026-05-04 22:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.00%EV -8.83%E -4.82%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.29%EV -0.132%E -0.029%K -0.037%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -7.48%E -2.30%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-04 22:04 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.92%EV -4.84%E -2.53%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -2.30%E -0.512%K -0.658%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.89%EV -6.06%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-04 21:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.96%EV -14.31%E -8.32%K -19.87%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.24%EV -2.30%E -0.512%K -0.658%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -3.21%E -0.944%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-04 22:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.96%EV -14.31%E -8.32%K -19.87%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.24%EV -2.30%E -0.512%K -0.658%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -3.21%E -0.944%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-04 22:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.04%EV -15.30%E -9.00%K -21.86%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.04%EV -2.30%E -0.512%K -0.658%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.92%EV -4.63%E -1.38%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-04 22:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.19%EV -12.81%E -7.32%K -17.08%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.91%EV -2.30%E -0.512%K -0.658%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -11.75%E -3.79%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-05-04 22:04 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.81%EV -4.84%E -2.53%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 4.49I 22.27%NM 21.19%EV -2.52%E -0.561%K -0.722%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 29.00%EV -6.63%E -2.02%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-04 21:59 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.37%EV -5.34%E -2.81%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.32%EV -4.47%E -1.02%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.31%EV -8.90%E -2.78%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-04 21:54 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 50.17%EV -7.33%E -3.94%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.21%EV -4.47%E -1.02%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 3.26I 30.67%NM 28.62%EV -7.20%E -2.21%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-04 22:08 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.80%EV -12.81%E -7.32%K -17.08%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.53%EV -5.99%E -1.38%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.67%EV -11.75%E -3.79%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-05-04 22:04 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.43%EV -4.84%E -2.53%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -6.64%E -1.55%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.61%EV -6.06%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-04 22:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.04%EV -4.34%E -2.26%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.42%EV -8.82%E -2.10%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -6.06%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-04 22:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.04%EV -4.34%E -2.26%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.42%EV -8.82%E -2.10%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -6.06%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-04 22:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -4.84%E -2.53%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%EV -8.82%E -2.10%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.06%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-04 22:09 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -4.84%E -2.53%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%EV -8.82%E -2.10%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.06%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-04 21:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.96%EV -4.84%E -2.53%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.27%EV -8.82%E -2.10%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -7.48%E -2.30%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-04 21:56 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.70%EV -6.83%E -3.65%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -8.82%E -2.10%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -6.06%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-04 22:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.97%EV -7.83%E -4.23%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.01%EV -8.82%E -2.10%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -6.06%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-04 22:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.27%EV -6.83%E -3.65%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.94%EV -8.82%E -2.10%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -8.90%E -2.78%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-04 21:54 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 48.96%EV -5.84%E -3.09%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.57%EV -10.99%E -2.68%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.47%EV -7.48%E -2.30%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-04 22:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.61%EV -5.34%E -2.81%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.53%EV -10.99%E -2.68%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.90%E -2.78%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-04 22:09 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.71%EV -7.83%E -4.23%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -10.99%E -2.68%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -6.06%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-04 22:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 50.65%EV -14.31%E -8.32%K -19.87%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.25%EV -10.99%E -2.68%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.10%EV -11.75%E -3.79%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-05-04 22:10 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.70%EV -8.83%E -4.82%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -13.16%E -3.29%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -6.06%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-04 22:09 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 49.63%EV -9.32%E -5.12%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -13.16%E -3.29%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -7.48%E -2.30%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-04 22:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 49.77%EV -13.81%E -7.98%K -18.92%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.53%EV -13.16%E -3.29%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.70%EV -14.60%E -4.87%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 16.1% | 2026-05-04 22:04 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.83%EV -8.83%E -4.82%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.62%EV -14.24%E -3.61%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 3.13I 31.95%NM 28.55%EV -10.90%E -3.48%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-04 21:48 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 48.80%EV -7.33%E -3.94%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.27%EV -15.33%E -3.93%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -7.48%E -2.30%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-04 21:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 48.59%EV -10.82%E -6.04%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 22.89%EV -17.50%E -4.61%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.52%EV -13.17%E -4.32%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 15.0% | 2026-05-04 21:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 48.47%EV -9.32%E -5.12%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.52%EV -18.59%E -4.96%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.01%EV -10.33%E -3.28%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-05-04 21:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.60% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.53% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.87% | 0.4% | 2026-05-04 22:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.91I 52.36%NM 52.08% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.50% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.42% | 0.5% | 2026-05-04 22:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.91I 52.36%NM 51.86% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.42% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.71% | 0.9% | 2026-05-04 22:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.91I 52.36%NM 51.86% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.42% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.71% | 0.9% | 2026-05-04 22:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 51.58% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.60% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.82% | 2.0% | 2026-05-04 22:10 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.44% | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.38% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.18% | 3.1% | 2026-05-04 22:10 |