La escuela de los momiosIdioma:Español
Velez Sarsfield BA v Newells Old Boys
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Velez Sarsfield BA (Local)
Predicción 49.82%2.01momio equitativo
EV -4.34%
Ventaja -2.26%
Kelly -4.72%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.92
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
48.47%50.04%49.67%53.10%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.701.841.851.9258.82%54.49%54.05%52.08%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Newells Old Boys (Visitante)
Predicción 21.71%4.61momio equitativo
EV +5.73%
Ventaja +1.18%
Kelly +1.48%
Crecimiento +0.085%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.87
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.36%21.60%21.88%23.52%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.754.314.204.8726.67%23.21%23.81%20.53%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 28.47%3.51momio equitativo
EV +1.06%
Ventaja +0.299%
Kelly +0.416%
Crecimiento +0.004%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.55
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.47%28.36%28.46%29.31%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.273.283.5533.33%30.60%30.49%28.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (37 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.58%EV -7.33%E -3.94%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 4.87I 20.53%NM 19.70%EV +5.73%E +1.18%K +1.48%G +0.085% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 28.72%EV -4.92%E -1.47%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-04 22:09 |
| FanDuel | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.49%EV -11.82%E -6.68%K -15.34%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.36%EV +4.21%E +0.877%K +1.11%G +0.047% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -6.06%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-04 22:03 |
| Unibet | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.85%EV -10.82%E -6.04%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.13%EV +2.04%E +0.434%K +0.551%G +0.011% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.03%EV -0.363%E -0.104%K -0.145%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-04 22:10 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.85%EV -10.82%E -6.04%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.13%EV +2.04%E +0.434%K +0.551%G +0.011% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.03%EV -0.363%E -0.104%K -0.145%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-04 22:09 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.57%EV -6.34%E -3.37%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.45%EV +0.954%E +0.205%K +0.261%G +0.002% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 28.99%EV -6.63%E -2.02%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-04 22:08 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.57%EV -6.34%E -3.37%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.45%EV +0.954%E +0.205%K +0.261%G +0.002% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 28.99%EV -6.63%E -2.02%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-04 22:09 |
| BetRivers | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.10%EV -11.82%E -6.68%K -15.34%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.43%EV -0.132%E -0.029%K -0.037%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV +1.06%E +0.299%K +0.416%G +0.004% | 6.4% | 2026-05-04 22:00 |
| SportsBet | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.00%EV -8.83%E -4.82%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.29%EV -0.132%E -0.029%K -0.037%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -7.48%E -2.30%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-04 22:04 |
| Fanatics | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.92%EV -4.84%E -2.53%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -2.30%E -0.512%K -0.658%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.89%EV -6.06%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-04 21:54 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.96%EV -14.31%E -8.32%K -19.87%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.24%EV -2.30%E -0.512%K -0.658%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -3.21%E -0.944%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-04 22:10 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.96%EV -14.31%E -8.32%K -19.87%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.24%EV -2.30%E -0.512%K -0.658%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -3.21%E -0.944%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-04 22:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.04%EV -15.30%E -9.00%K -21.86%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.04%EV -2.30%E -0.512%K -0.658%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.92%EV -4.63%E -1.38%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-04 22:09 |
| Paddy Power | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.19%EV -12.81%E -7.32%K -17.08%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.91%EV -2.30%E -0.512%K -0.658%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -11.75%E -3.79%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-05-04 22:04 |
| Pinnacle | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.81%EV -4.84%E -2.53%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 4.49I 22.27%NM 21.19%EV -2.52%E -0.561%K -0.722%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 29.00%EV -6.63%E -2.02%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-04 21:59 |
| Everygame | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.37%EV -5.34%E -2.81%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.32%EV -4.47%E -1.02%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.31%EV -8.90%E -2.78%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-04 21:54 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.86I 53.76%NM 50.17%EV -7.33%E -3.94%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.21%EV -4.47%E -1.02%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 3.26I 30.67%NM 28.62%EV -7.20%E -2.21%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-04 22:08 |
| Sky Bet | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.80%EV -12.81%E -7.32%K -17.08%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.53%EV -5.99%E -1.38%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.67%EV -11.75%E -3.79%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-05-04 22:04 |
| DraftKings | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.43%EV -4.84%E -2.53%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -6.64%E -1.55%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.61%EV -6.06%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-04 22:00 |
| Betsson | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.04%EV -4.34%E -2.26%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.42%EV -8.82%E -2.10%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -6.06%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-04 22:10 |
| NordicBet | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.04%EV -4.34%E -2.26%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.42%EV -8.82%E -2.10%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -6.06%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-04 22:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -4.84%E -2.53%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%EV -8.82%E -2.10%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.06%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-04 22:09 |
| theScore Bet | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -4.84%E -2.53%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%EV -8.82%E -2.10%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.06%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-04 21:50 |
| Bovada | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.96%EV -4.84%E -2.53%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.27%EV -8.82%E -2.10%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -7.48%E -2.30%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-04 21:56 |
| BetMGM | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.70%EV -6.83%E -3.65%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -8.82%E -2.10%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -6.06%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-04 22:10 |
| Betway | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.97%EV -7.83%E -4.23%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.01%EV -8.82%E -2.10%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -6.06%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-04 22:10 |
| BoyleSports | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.27%EV -6.83%E -3.65%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.94%EV -8.82%E -2.10%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -8.90%E -2.78%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-04 21:54 |
| BetAnything | 1.89I 52.91%NM 48.96%EV -5.84%E -3.09%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.57%EV -10.99%E -2.68%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.47%EV -7.48%E -2.30%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-04 22:00 |
| PlayUp | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.61%EV -5.34%E -2.81%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.53%EV -10.99%E -2.68%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.90%E -2.78%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-04 22:09 |
| Bet Right | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.71%EV -7.83%E -4.23%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -10.99%E -2.68%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -6.06%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-04 22:10 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.72I 58.14%NM 50.65%EV -14.31%E -8.32%K -19.87%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.25%EV -10.99%E -2.68%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.10%EV -11.75%E -3.79%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-05-04 22:10 |
| betfred_uk | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.70%EV -8.83%E -4.82%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -13.16%E -3.29%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -6.06%E -1.84%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-04 22:09 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.82I 54.95%NM 49.63%EV -9.32%E -5.12%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -13.16%E -3.29%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -7.48%E -2.30%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-04 22:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.73I 57.80%NM 49.77%EV -13.81%E -7.98%K -18.92%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.53%EV -13.16%E -3.29%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.70%EV -14.60%E -4.87%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 16.1% | 2026-05-04 22:04 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.83%EV -8.83%E -4.82%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.62%EV -14.24%E -3.61%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 3.13I 31.95%NM 28.55%EV -10.90%E -3.48%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-04 21:48 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.86I 53.76%NM 48.80%EV -7.33%E -3.94%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.27%EV -15.33%E -3.93%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -7.48%E -2.30%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-04 21:50 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.79I 55.87%NM 48.59%EV -10.82%E -6.04%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 22.89%EV -17.50%E -4.61%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.52%EV -13.17%E -4.32%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 15.0% | 2026-05-04 21:45 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.82I 54.95%NM 48.47%EV -9.32%E -5.12%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.52%EV -18.59%E -4.96%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.01%EV -10.33%E -3.28%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-05-04 21:50 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (6)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.60% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.53% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.87% | 0.4% | 2026-05-04 22:10 |
| Matchbook | 1.91I 52.36%NM 52.08% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.50% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.42% | 0.5% | 2026-05-04 22:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.91I 52.36%NM 51.86% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.42% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.71% | 0.9% | 2026-05-04 22:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.91I 52.36%NM 51.86% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.42% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.71% | 0.9% | 2026-05-04 22:10 |
| Smarkets | 1.90I 52.63%NM 51.58% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.60% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.82% | 2.0% | 2026-05-04 22:10 |
| Kalshi | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.44% | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.38% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.18% | 3.1% | 2026-05-04 22:10 |