Language:English
Union Santa Fe v Talleres
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Union Santa Fe (Local)
Prediction 45.28%2.21fair odd
EV -2.19%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -1.89%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.16
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.54%45.32%45.44%47.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.052.052.1652.36%48.87%48.78%46.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Talleres (Visit)
Prediction 24.70%4.05fair odd
EV +2.25%
Edge +0.544%
Kelly +0.718%
Growth +0.016%
assuming max odds 4.14
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.87%24.71%24.51%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.733.734.1429.85%26.79%26.85%24.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 30.02%3.33fair odd
EV +0.558%
Edge +0.166%
Kelly +0.237%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 3.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.62%29.97%30.05%30.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.073.103.3535.71%32.58%32.26%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Union Santa Fe (Local): 45.28%; Talleres (Visit): 24.70%; Draw: 30.02%. For Talleres (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.05. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.14, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.25%.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 46.84%EV -8.07%E -3.98%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 4.14I 24.15%NM 22.97%EV +2.25%E +0.544%K +0.718%G +0.016% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.19%EV -5.45%E -1.73%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.88%EV -9.43%E -4.72%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV +1.27%E +0.309%K +0.408%G +0.005% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.25%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-02 21:39 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.88%EV -9.43%E -4.72%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV +1.27%E +0.309%K +0.408%G +0.005% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.25%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-02 21:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.15%EV -9.43%E -4.72%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -1.20%E -0.301%K -0.401%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -9.95%E -3.32%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-02 21:39 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 47.23%EV -8.07%E -3.98%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 3.97I 25.19%NM 24.15%EV -1.95%E -0.490%K -0.655%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.62%EV +0.558%E +0.166%K +0.237%G +0.001% | 4.3% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -4.00%E -1.89%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.12%EV -2.44%E -0.618%K -0.827%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.94%EV -7.55%E -2.45%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-02 21:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -4.00%E -1.89%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.12%EV -2.44%E -0.618%K -0.827%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.94%EV -7.55%E -2.45%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-02 21:30 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -4.00%E -1.89%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.12%EV -2.44%E -0.618%K -0.827%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.94%EV -7.55%E -2.45%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-02 21:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.09%EV -7.17%E -3.50%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.92%EV -2.44%E -0.618%K -0.827%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.99%EV -5.45%E -1.73%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.14%EV -8.53%E -4.22%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -2.44%E -0.618%K -0.827%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.26%EV -7.55%E -2.45%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.73%EV -7.17%E -3.50%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.04%EV -3.67%E -0.942%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.24%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.73%EV -7.17%E -3.50%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.04%EV -3.67%E -0.942%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.24%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.73%EV -7.17%E -3.50%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.04%EV -3.67%E -0.942%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.24%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.95%EV -8.53%E -4.22%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.11%EV -4.91%E -1.28%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.44%EV -7.17%E -3.50%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -6.14%E -1.62%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.68%EV -11.70%E -6.00%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -6.14%E -1.62%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.23%EV -11.70%E -6.00%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.72%EV -6.14%E -1.62%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.05%EV -9.95%E -3.32%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.33%EV -9.43%E -4.72%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -7.38%E -1.97%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.96%EV -3.94%E -1.23%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.61%EV -11.70%E -6.00%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.72%EV -7.38%E -1.97%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -12.95%E -4.47%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.54%EV -4.90%E -2.34%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -8.61%E -2.33%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-02 21:36 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.54%EV -4.90%E -2.34%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -8.61%E -2.33%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-02 21:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.70%EV -2.19%E -1.01%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.86%EV -9.85%E -2.70%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.45%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.70%EV -2.19%E -1.01%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.86%EV -9.85%E -2.70%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.45%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.07%EV -2.64%E -1.23%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -11.08%E -3.08%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -3.94%E -1.23%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-02 21:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.54%EV -2.19%E -1.01%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -11.08%E -3.08%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-02 21:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -4.90%E -2.34%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -11.08%E -3.08%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-02 21:35 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -7.17%E -3.50%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -11.08%E -3.08%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.67%EV -7.17%E -3.50%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.79%EV -12.32%E -3.47%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.54%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 44.97%EV -9.89%E -4.97%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.21%EV -12.32%E -3.47%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.83%EV -9.95%E -3.32%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-05-02 21:35 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -7.17%E -3.50%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -13.55%E -3.87%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-02 21:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.71%EV -5.81%E -2.79%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.98%EV -13.55%E -3.87%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -9.95%E -3.32%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.71%EV -5.81%E -2.79%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.98%EV -13.55%E -3.87%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -9.95%E -3.32%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -9.43%E -4.72%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -13.55%E -3.87%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 43.73%EV -6.72%E -3.26%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.74%EV -13.55%E -3.87%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.54%EV -11.45%E -3.88%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 44.89%EV -13.51%E -7.07%K -14.84%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.50%EV -13.55%E -3.87%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 30.62%EV -15.95%E -5.70%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 16.6% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 43.89%EV -8.07%E -3.98%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -16.02%E -4.71%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 29.90%EV -10.55%E -3.54%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-05-02 21:32 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 43.92%EV -10.34%E -5.22%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.57%EV -16.02%E -4.71%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.51%EV -14.45%E -5.07%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 15.0% | 2026-05-02 21:35 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 44.42%EV -10.34%E -5.22%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.26%EV -17.26%E -5.15%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.32%EV -9.95%E -3.32%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-05-02 21:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 2.17I 46.08%NM 46.04% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.96% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 30.00% | 0.1% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.12I 47.17%NM 46.86% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.58% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.57% | 0.7% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.09% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.48% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.43% | 1.1% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.85% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.88% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.27% | 1.6% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.85% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.88% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.27% | 1.6% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.61% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.09% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.30% | 3.1% | 2026-05-02 21:40 |