A Escola das Odds

Union Santa Fe v Talleres

Início: 2026-05-02 21:45 UTC

Final: Union Santa Fe 1–1 Talleres

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

38 casas de apostas (15 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: IQM

Union Santa Fe (Local)

Previsão 45.28%2.21odd justa
EV -2.19%
Vantagem -1.01%
Kelly -1.89%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.16

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
43.54%45.32%45.44%47.23%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.912.052.052.1652.36%48.87%48.78%46.30%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Talleres (Visitante)

Previsão 24.70%4.05odd justa
EV +2.25%
Vantagem +0.544%
Kelly +0.718%
Crescimento +0.016%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.14

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
22.87%24.71%24.51%26.32%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
3.353.733.734.1429.85%26.79%26.85%24.15%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Empate

Previsão 30.02%3.33odd justa
EV +0.558%
Vantagem +0.166%
Kelly +0.237%
Crescimento +0.001%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.35

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
28.62%29.97%30.05%30.94%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
2.803.073.103.3535.71%32.58%32.26%29.85%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Odds das casas de apostas (38 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Pinnacle2.03I 49.26%NM 46.84%EV -8.07%E -3.98%K -7.84%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 22.97%EV +2.25%E +0.544%K +0.718%G +0.016%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.19%EV -5.45%E -1.73%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-02 21:40
FanDuel2.00I 50.00%NM 46.88%EV -9.43%E -4.72%K -9.43%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV +1.27%E +0.309%K +0.408%G +0.005%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.25%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 21:39
Everygame2.00I 50.00%NM 46.88%EV -9.43%E -4.72%K -9.43%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV +1.27%E +0.309%K +0.408%G +0.005%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.25%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 21:39
SportsBet2.00I 50.00%NM 46.15%EV -9.43%E -4.72%K -9.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -1.20%E -0.301%K -0.401%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -9.95%E -3.32%K -4.97%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 21:39
1xBet2.03I 49.26%NM 47.23%EV -8.07%E -3.98%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.97I 25.19%NM 24.15%EV -1.95%E -0.490%K -0.655%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.62%EV +0.558%E +0.166%K +0.237%G +0.001%4.3%2026-05-02 21:40
LowVig.ag2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -4.00%E -1.89%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.12%EV -2.44%E -0.618%K -0.827%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.94%EV -7.55%E -2.45%K -3.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-02 21:30
BetOnline.ag2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -4.00%E -1.89%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.12%EV -2.44%E -0.618%K -0.827%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.94%EV -7.55%E -2.45%K -3.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-02 21:30
BetAnything2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -4.00%E -1.89%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.12%EV -2.44%E -0.618%K -0.827%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.94%EV -7.55%E -2.45%K -3.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-02 21:30
DraftKings2.05I 48.78%NM 46.09%EV -7.17%E -3.50%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.92%EV -2.44%E -0.618%K -0.827%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.99%EV -5.45%E -1.73%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-02 21:40
Marathon Bet2.02I 49.50%NM 46.14%EV -8.53%E -4.22%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -2.44%E -0.618%K -0.827%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.26%EV -7.55%E -2.45%K -3.63%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-02 21:40
Ladbrokes (UK)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.73%EV -7.17%E -3.50%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.04%EV -3.67%E -0.942%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.24%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-02 21:40
Betsson2.05I 48.78%NM 45.73%EV -7.17%E -3.50%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.04%EV -3.67%E -0.942%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.24%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-02 21:40
NordicBet2.05I 48.78%NM 45.73%EV -7.17%E -3.50%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.04%EV -3.67%E -0.942%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.24%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-02 21:40
PlayUp2.02I 49.50%NM 45.95%EV -8.53%E -4.22%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.11%EV -4.91%E -1.28%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-02 21:40
BetMGM2.05I 48.78%NM 45.44%EV -7.17%E -3.50%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -6.14%E -1.62%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 21:40
BoyleSports1.95I 51.28%NM 46.68%EV -11.70%E -6.00%K -12.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -6.14%E -1.62%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-02 21:40
Paddy Power1.95I 51.28%NM 46.23%EV -11.70%E -6.00%K -12.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.72%EV -6.14%E -1.62%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.05%EV -9.95%E -3.32%K -4.97%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-02 21:40
Betway2.00I 50.00%NM 46.33%EV -9.43%E -4.72%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -7.38%E -1.97%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.96%EV -3.94%E -1.23%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-02 21:40
Sky Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 45.61%EV -11.70%E -6.00%K -12.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.72%EV -7.38%E -1.97%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -12.95%E -4.47%K -6.82%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-02 21:40
Bovada2.10I 47.62%NM 44.54%EV -4.90%E -2.34%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -8.61%E -2.33%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 21:36
theScore Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.54%EV -4.90%E -2.34%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -8.61%E -2.33%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 21:35
Unibet2.16I 46.30%NM 43.70%EV -2.19%E -1.01%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.86%EV -9.85%E -2.70%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.45%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 21:40
Unibet (SE)2.16I 46.30%NM 43.70%EV -2.19%E -1.01%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.86%EV -9.85%E -2.70%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.45%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 21:40
Fanatics2.15I 46.51%NM 44.07%EV -2.64%E -1.23%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -11.08%E -3.08%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -3.94%E -1.23%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-02 21:20
BetRivers2.16I 46.30%NM 43.54%EV -2.19%E -1.01%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -11.08%E -3.08%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 21:29
Unibet (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -4.90%E -2.34%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -11.08%E -3.08%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-02 21:35
betfred_uk2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -7.17%E -3.50%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -11.08%E -3.08%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 21:40
Bet Right2.05I 48.78%NM 44.67%EV -7.17%E -3.50%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.79%EV -12.32%E -3.47%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.54%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-02 21:40
Unibet (FR)1.99I 50.25%NM 44.97%EV -9.89%E -4.97%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.21%EV -12.32%E -3.47%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.83%EV -9.95%E -3.32%K -4.97%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-02 21:35
Winamax (DE)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -7.17%E -3.50%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -13.55%E -3.87%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-02 21:35
Virgin Bet2.08I 48.08%NM 43.71%EV -5.81%E -2.79%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.98%EV -13.55%E -3.87%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -9.95%E -3.32%K -4.97%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-02 21:40
LiveScore Bet2.08I 48.08%NM 43.71%EV -5.81%E -2.79%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.98%EV -13.55%E -3.87%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -9.95%E -3.32%K -4.97%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-02 21:40
Betr (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -9.43%E -4.72%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -13.55%E -3.87%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-02 21:40
LeoVegas (SE)2.06I 48.54%NM 43.73%EV -6.72%E -3.26%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.74%EV -13.55%E -3.87%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.54%EV -11.45%E -3.88%K -5.87%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-02 21:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 44.89%EV -13.51%E -7.07%K -14.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.50%EV -13.55%E -3.87%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.62%EV -15.95%E -5.70%K -8.86%G +0.000%16.6%2026-05-02 21:40
Betclic (FR)2.03I 49.26%NM 43.89%EV -8.07%E -3.98%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -16.02%E -4.71%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 29.90%EV -10.55%E -3.54%K -5.33%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-02 21:32
NetBet (FR)1.98I 50.51%NM 43.92%EV -10.34%E -5.22%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.57%EV -16.02%E -4.71%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.51%EV -14.45%E -5.07%K -7.81%G +0.000%15.0%2026-05-02 21:35
Winamax (FR)1.98I 50.51%NM 44.42%EV -10.34%E -5.22%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.26%EV -17.26%E -5.15%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.32%EV -9.95%E -3.32%K -4.97%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-02 21:35
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Kalshi2.17I 46.08%NM 46.04%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.96%3.33I 30.03%NM 30.00%0.1%2026-05-02 21:40
Matchbook2.12I 47.17%NM 46.86%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.58%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.57%0.7%2026-05-02 21:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 47.09%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.48%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.43%1.1%2026-05-02 21:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 46.85%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.88%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.27%1.6%2026-05-02 21:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.10I 47.62%NM 46.85%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.88%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.27%1.6%2026-05-02 21:40
Smarkets2.08I 48.08%NM 46.61%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.09%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.30%3.1%2026-05-02 21:40