Language:English
River Plate v Velez Sarsfield BA
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
River Plate (Local)
Prediction 57.27%1.75fair odd
EV -3.22%
Edge -1.91%
Kelly -4.67%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.69
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.44%57.25%57.31%58.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.621.621.6966.67%61.87%61.73%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Velez Sarsfield BA (Visit)
Prediction 15.47%6.46fair odd
EV +3.05%
Edge +0.457%
Kelly +0.538%
Growth +0.016%
assuming max odds 6.66
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.41%15.46%15.47%16.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.405.966.006.6618.52%16.77%16.67%15.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.26%3.67fair odd
EV -2.95%
Edge -0.829%
Kelly -1.15%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.56
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.92%27.29%27.21%28.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.403.403.5632.26%29.42%29.41%28.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: River Plate (Local): 57.27%; Velez Sarsfield BA (Visit): 15.47%; Draw: 27.26%. For Velez Sarsfield BA (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.46. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.66, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.05%.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -3.22%E -1.91%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 6.66I 15.02%NM 14.41%EV +3.05%E +0.457%K +0.538%G +0.016% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 28.82%EV -9.22%E -2.77%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-23 22:09 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.46%EV -3.79%E -2.26%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 6.56I 15.24%NM 14.72%EV +1.50%E +0.229%K +0.270%G +0.004% | 3.47I 28.82%NM 27.82%EV -5.40%E -1.56%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-08-23 21:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.94%EV -4.37%E -2.61%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.89%EV +0.571%E +0.088%K +0.104%G +0.001% | 3.56I 28.09%NM 27.18%EV -2.95%E -0.829%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-23 22:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.94%EV -4.37%E -2.61%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.89%EV +0.571%E +0.088%K +0.104%G +0.001% | 3.56I 28.09%NM 27.18%EV -2.95%E -0.829%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-23 22:04 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.94%EV -4.37%E -2.61%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.89%EV +0.571%E +0.088%K +0.104%G +0.001% | 3.56I 28.09%NM 27.18%EV -2.95%E -0.829%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-23 22:04 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.41%EV -7.23%E -4.46%K -11.66%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV +0.571%E +0.088%K +0.104%G +0.001% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.03%EV -4.59%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-23 22:09 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.50%EV -7.23%E -4.46%K -11.66%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.81%EV -0.976%E -0.153%K -0.181%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.69%EV -3.22%E -0.908%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-23 22:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.69%EV -6.66%E -4.08%K -10.56%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.05%EV -3.30%E -0.528%K -0.628%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -5.95%E -1.72%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-23 22:04 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.23%EV -6.66%E -4.08%K -10.56%G +0.000% | 6.15I 16.26%NM 15.17%EV -4.84%E -0.788%K -0.941%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 27.60%EV -7.86%E -2.32%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-23 22:09 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.26%EV -5.51%E -3.34%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.75%EV -7.17%E -1.19%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -4.59%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-23 21:49 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.41%EV -6.08%E -3.71%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.69%EV -7.17%E -1.19%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -4.59%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-23 22:09 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.41%EV -6.08%E -3.71%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.69%EV -7.17%E -1.19%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -4.59%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-23 22:09 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.19%EV -6.08%E -3.71%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -7.17%E -1.19%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -5.95%E -1.72%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-23 21:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.81%EV -5.51%E -3.34%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -7.17%E -1.19%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -7.31%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-23 22:04 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.86%EV -7.80%E -4.85%K -12.79%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.53%EV -7.17%E -1.19%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -4.59%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-23 22:09 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.26%EV -7.23%E -4.46%K -11.66%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV -7.17%E -1.19%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -7.31%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-23 22:09 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.41%EV -7.80%E -4.85%K -12.79%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.40%EV -7.17%E -1.19%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -7.31%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-23 22:04 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.56%EV -8.37%E -5.23%K -13.96%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.35%EV -7.17%E -1.19%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -7.31%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-23 21:44 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.79%EV -7.23%E -4.46%K -11.66%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.33%EV -7.17%E -1.19%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -10.04%E -3.04%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-23 21:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.56%EV -10.09%E -6.43%K -17.70%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.06%EV -7.17%E -1.19%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -10.04%E -3.04%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-23 22:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.56%EV -10.09%E -6.43%K -17.70%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.06%EV -7.17%E -1.19%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -10.04%E -3.04%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-23 22:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.22%EV -3.79%E -2.26%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.01%EV -8.71%E -1.48%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.78%EV -7.31%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-23 21:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.22%EV -3.79%E -2.26%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.01%EV -8.71%E -1.48%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.78%EV -7.31%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-23 21:54 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 56.59%EV -11.24%E -7.25%K -20.43%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.12%EV -10.26%E -1.77%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.29%EV -15.49%E -5.00%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-08-23 22:09 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.37%EV -14.10%E -9.40%K -28.20%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.10%EV -10.26%E -1.77%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.53%EV -10.04%E -3.04%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-08-23 22:09 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.87%EV -5.51%E -3.34%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.32%EV -11.03%E -1.92%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -4.59%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-23 21:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.87%EV -5.51%E -3.34%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.32%EV -11.03%E -1.92%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -4.59%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-23 21:49 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.20%EV -5.51%E -3.34%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.13%EV -11.03%E -1.92%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.68%EV -8.68%E -2.59%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-23 22:09 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.40%EV -8.37%E -5.23%K -13.96%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.97%EV -11.03%E -1.92%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.62%EV -5.95%E -1.72%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-23 21:54 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.18%EV -8.37%E -5.23%K -13.96%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.91%EV -11.03%E -1.92%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -7.31%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-23 21:44 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 57.49%EV -9.52%E -6.02%K -16.41%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.80%EV -11.03%E -1.92%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.72%EV -7.31%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-23 21:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.16%EV -10.66%E -6.84%K -19.04%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 15.92%EV -11.81%E -2.07%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -4.59%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-23 22:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 57.87%EV -11.81%E -7.67%K -21.87%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 15.91%EV -13.35%E -2.38%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -7.31%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-23 22:09 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.08%EV -8.37%E -5.23%K -13.96%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.31%EV -14.90%E -2.71%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.61%EV -11.40%E -3.51%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-23 22:04 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 55.44%EV -7.80%E -4.85%K -12.79%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.23%EV -14.90%E -2.71%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.33%EV -14.13%E -4.48%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-23 22:07 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 56.70%EV -10.66%E -6.84%K -19.04%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.08%EV -14.90%E -2.71%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.22%EV -11.40%E -3.51%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-23 22:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 56.70%EV -10.66%E -6.84%K -19.04%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.08%EV -14.90%E -2.71%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.22%EV -11.40%E -3.51%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-23 22:09 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 56.69%EV -11.24%E -7.25%K -20.43%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.27%EV -16.45%E -3.05%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.04%EV -11.40%E -3.51%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-08-23 22:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.50% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.62% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88% | 0.6% | 2026-08-23 22:04 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.50% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.62% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88% | 0.6% | 2026-08-23 22:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.50% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.62% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88% | 0.6% | 2026-08-23 22:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.53% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.90% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.57% | 1.7% | 2026-08-23 22:10 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.91% | 6.67I 14.99%NM 14.67% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.41% | 2.2% | 2026-08-23 22:05 |