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River Plate v Velez Sarsfield BA
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
River Plate (Local)
Predicción 57.27%1.75momio equitativo
EV -3.22%
Ventaja -1.91%
Kelly -4.67%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.69
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
55.44%57.25%57.31%58.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.501.621.621.6966.67%61.87%61.73%59.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Velez Sarsfield BA (Visitante)
Predicción 15.47%6.46momio equitativo
EV +3.05%
Ventaja +0.457%
Kelly +0.538%
Crecimiento +0.016%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.66
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
14.41%15.46%15.47%16.32%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.405.966.006.6618.52%16.77%16.67%15.02%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 27.26%3.67momio equitativo
EV -2.95%
Ventaja -0.829%
Kelly -1.15%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.56
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.92%27.29%27.21%28.82%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.103.403.403.5632.26%29.42%29.41%28.09%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: River Plate (Local): 57.27%; Velez Sarsfield BA (Visitante): 15.47%; Empate: 27.26%. Para Velez Sarsfield BA (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 6.46. 6 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 6.66, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +3.05%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (38 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -3.22%E -1.91%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 6.66I 15.02%NM 14.41%EV +3.05%E +0.457%K +0.538%G +0.016% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 28.82%EV -9.22%E -2.77%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-23 22:09 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.46%EV -3.79%E -2.26%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 6.56I 15.24%NM 14.72%EV +1.50%E +0.229%K +0.270%G +0.004% | 3.47I 28.82%NM 27.82%EV -5.40%E -1.56%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-08-23 21:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.94%EV -4.37%E -2.61%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.89%EV +0.571%E +0.088%K +0.104%G +0.001% | 3.56I 28.09%NM 27.18%EV -2.95%E -0.829%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-23 22:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.94%EV -4.37%E -2.61%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.89%EV +0.571%E +0.088%K +0.104%G +0.001% | 3.56I 28.09%NM 27.18%EV -2.95%E -0.829%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-23 22:04 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.94%EV -4.37%E -2.61%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.89%EV +0.571%E +0.088%K +0.104%G +0.001% | 3.56I 28.09%NM 27.18%EV -2.95%E -0.829%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-23 22:04 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.41%EV -7.23%E -4.46%K -11.66%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV +0.571%E +0.088%K +0.104%G +0.001% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.03%EV -4.59%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-23 22:09 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.50%EV -7.23%E -4.46%K -11.66%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.81%EV -0.976%E -0.153%K -0.181%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.69%EV -3.22%E -0.908%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-23 22:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.69%EV -6.66%E -4.08%K -10.56%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.05%EV -3.30%E -0.528%K -0.628%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -5.95%E -1.72%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-23 22:04 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.23%EV -6.66%E -4.08%K -10.56%G +0.000% | 6.15I 16.26%NM 15.17%EV -4.84%E -0.788%K -0.941%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 27.60%EV -7.86%E -2.32%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-23 22:09 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.26%EV -5.51%E -3.34%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.75%EV -7.17%E -1.19%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -4.59%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-23 21:49 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.41%EV -6.08%E -3.71%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.69%EV -7.17%E -1.19%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -4.59%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-23 22:09 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.41%EV -6.08%E -3.71%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.69%EV -7.17%E -1.19%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -4.59%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-23 22:09 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.19%EV -6.08%E -3.71%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -7.17%E -1.19%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -5.95%E -1.72%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-23 21:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.81%EV -5.51%E -3.34%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -7.17%E -1.19%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -7.31%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-23 22:04 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.86%EV -7.80%E -4.85%K -12.79%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.53%EV -7.17%E -1.19%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -4.59%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-23 22:09 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.26%EV -7.23%E -4.46%K -11.66%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV -7.17%E -1.19%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -7.31%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-23 22:09 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.41%EV -7.80%E -4.85%K -12.79%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.40%EV -7.17%E -1.19%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -7.31%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-23 22:04 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.56%EV -8.37%E -5.23%K -13.96%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.35%EV -7.17%E -1.19%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -7.31%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-23 21:44 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.79%EV -7.23%E -4.46%K -11.66%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.33%EV -7.17%E -1.19%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -10.04%E -3.04%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-23 21:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.56%EV -10.09%E -6.43%K -17.70%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.06%EV -7.17%E -1.19%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -10.04%E -3.04%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-23 22:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.56%EV -10.09%E -6.43%K -17.70%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.06%EV -7.17%E -1.19%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -10.04%E -3.04%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-23 22:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.22%EV -3.79%E -2.26%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.01%EV -8.71%E -1.48%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.78%EV -7.31%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-23 21:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.22%EV -3.79%E -2.26%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.01%EV -8.71%E -1.48%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.78%EV -7.31%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-23 21:54 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 56.59%EV -11.24%E -7.25%K -20.43%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.12%EV -10.26%E -1.77%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.29%EV -15.49%E -5.00%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-08-23 22:09 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.37%EV -14.10%E -9.40%K -28.20%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.10%EV -10.26%E -1.77%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.53%EV -10.04%E -3.04%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-08-23 22:09 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.87%EV -5.51%E -3.34%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.32%EV -11.03%E -1.92%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -4.59%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-23 21:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.87%EV -5.51%E -3.34%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.32%EV -11.03%E -1.92%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -4.59%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-23 21:49 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.20%EV -5.51%E -3.34%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.13%EV -11.03%E -1.92%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.68%EV -8.68%E -2.59%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-23 22:09 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.40%EV -8.37%E -5.23%K -13.96%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.97%EV -11.03%E -1.92%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.62%EV -5.95%E -1.72%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-23 21:54 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.18%EV -8.37%E -5.23%K -13.96%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.91%EV -11.03%E -1.92%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -7.31%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-23 21:44 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 57.49%EV -9.52%E -6.02%K -16.41%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.80%EV -11.03%E -1.92%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.72%EV -7.31%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-23 21:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.16%EV -10.66%E -6.84%K -19.04%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 15.92%EV -11.81%E -2.07%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -4.59%E -1.31%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-23 22:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 57.87%EV -11.81%E -7.67%K -21.87%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 15.91%EV -13.35%E -2.38%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -7.31%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-23 22:09 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.08%EV -8.37%E -5.23%K -13.96%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.31%EV -14.90%E -2.71%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.61%EV -11.40%E -3.51%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-23 22:04 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 55.44%EV -7.80%E -4.85%K -12.79%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.23%EV -14.90%E -2.71%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.33%EV -14.13%E -4.48%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-23 22:07 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 56.70%EV -10.66%E -6.84%K -19.04%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.08%EV -14.90%E -2.71%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.22%EV -11.40%E -3.51%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-23 22:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 56.70%EV -10.66%E -6.84%K -19.04%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.08%EV -14.90%E -2.71%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.22%EV -11.40%E -3.51%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-23 22:09 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 56.69%EV -11.24%E -7.25%K -20.43%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.27%EV -16.45%E -3.05%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.04%EV -11.40%E -3.51%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-08-23 22:10 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.50% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.62% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88% | 0.6% | 2026-08-23 22:04 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.50% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.62% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88% | 0.6% | 2026-08-23 22:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.50% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.62% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88% | 0.6% | 2026-08-23 22:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.53% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.90% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.57% | 1.7% | 2026-08-23 22:10 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.91% | 6.67I 14.99%NM 14.67% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.41% | 2.2% | 2026-08-23 22:05 |