Language:English
Independiente v Newells Old Boys
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Independiente (Local)
Prediction 60.59%1.65fair odd
EV -2.45%
Edge -1.52%
Kelly -4.01%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.61
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.66%60.55%60.58%62.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.541.551.6169.93%64.96%64.52%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Newells Old Boys (Visit)
Prediction 15.10%6.62fair odd
EV +2.71%
Edge +0.398%
Kelly +0.467%
Growth +0.013%
assuming max odds 6.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.04%15.04%15.08%16.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.606.216.056.8017.86%16.10%16.53%14.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 24.30%4.11fair odd
EV -0.356%
Edge -0.087%
Kelly -0.115%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.41%24.41%24.34%27.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.763.804.1029.85%26.62%26.32%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Independiente (Local): 60.59%; Newells Old Boys (Visit): 15.10%; Draw: 24.30%. For Newells Old Boys (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.62. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.71%.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.12%EV -6.08%E -3.92%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.16%EV +2.71%E +0.398%K +0.467%G +0.013% | 4.06I 24.63%NM 23.72%EV -1.33%E -0.327%K -0.434%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-31 00:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.87%EV -2.45%E -1.52%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.04%EV +1.95%E +0.289%K +0.339%G +0.007% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -14.94%E -4.27%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-31 00:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.87%EV -2.45%E -1.52%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.04%EV +1.95%E +0.289%K +0.339%G +0.007% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -14.94%E -4.27%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-31 00:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.02%EV -5.48%E -3.51%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 6.73I 14.86%NM 14.38%EV +1.65%E +0.245%K +0.288%G +0.005% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.60%EV -0.356%E -0.087%K -0.115%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-07-30 23:59 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.02%EV -5.48%E -3.51%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 6.73I 14.86%NM 14.38%EV +1.65%E +0.245%K +0.288%G +0.005% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.60%EV -0.356%E -0.087%K -0.115%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-07-31 00:04 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.71%EV -3.05%E -1.91%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -1.83%E -0.281%K -0.332%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -14.94%E -4.27%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-30 23:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.59%EV -7.90%E -5.20%K -15.19%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -1.83%E -0.281%K -0.332%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.01%EV -5.22%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-31 00:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.22%EV -10.32%E -6.97%K -21.51%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -1.83%E -0.281%K -0.332%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -5.22%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-31 00:04 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.84%EV -5.48%E -3.51%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.83%EV -3.34%E -0.521%K -0.618%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.33%EV -5.22%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-31 00:10 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.99%EV -6.08%E -3.92%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.77%EV -3.34%E -0.521%K -0.618%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -5.22%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-30 23:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.74%EV -4.26%E -2.70%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.75%EV -3.34%E -0.521%K -0.618%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -10.08%E -2.72%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-31 00:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.74%EV -4.26%E -2.70%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.75%EV -3.34%E -0.521%K -0.618%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -10.08%E -2.72%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-31 00:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.66%EV -6.08%E -3.92%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.21%EV -3.34%E -0.521%K -0.618%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.14%EV -18.58%E -5.55%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-31 00:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.66%EV -6.08%E -3.92%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.21%EV -3.34%E -0.521%K -0.618%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.14%EV -18.58%E -5.55%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-31 00:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.97%EV -7.29%E -4.77%K -13.76%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.10%EV -3.34%E -0.521%K -0.618%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.93%EV -18.58%E -5.55%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-07-31 00:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.60%EV -4.26%E -2.70%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 6.34I 15.77%NM 15.10%EV -4.24%E -0.669%K -0.794%G +0.000% | 3.94I 25.38%NM 24.30%EV -4.24%E -1.08%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-31 00:10 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.08%EV -7.29%E -4.77%K -13.76%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.95%EV -5.60%E -0.896%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -5.22%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-31 00:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.55%EV -6.69%E -4.34%K -12.38%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.92%EV -5.60%E -0.896%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -7.65%E -2.01%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-31 00:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 61.56%EV -12.14%E -8.37%K -26.98%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.63%EV -7.87%E -1.29%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.80%EV -8.86%E -2.36%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-07-30 23:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.43%EV -5.48%E -3.51%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -9.38%E -1.56%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.86%EV -4.00%E -1.01%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-30 23:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.71%EV -4.87%E -3.10%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -9.38%E -1.56%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -7.65%E -2.01%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-30 23:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.71%EV -4.87%E -3.10%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -9.38%E -1.56%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -7.65%E -2.01%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-30 23:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.05%EV -5.48%E -3.51%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -9.38%E -1.56%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -6.43%E -1.67%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-30 23:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.51%EV -4.87%E -3.10%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -9.38%E -1.56%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -8.86%E -2.36%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-30 23:59 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.02%EV -6.08%E -3.92%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.50%EV -9.38%E -1.56%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -7.65%E -2.01%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-30 23:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.71%EV -7.29%E -4.77%K -13.76%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.48%EV -9.38%E -1.56%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.82%EV -5.22%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-30 23:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.82%EV -6.08%E -3.92%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -9.38%E -1.56%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.73%EV -8.86%E -2.36%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-30 23:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.62%EV -6.08%E -3.92%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.40%EV -9.38%E -1.56%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.98%EV -10.08%E -2.72%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-31 00:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.33%EV -7.29%E -4.77%K -13.76%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -9.38%E -1.56%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV -7.65%E -2.01%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-31 00:10 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.13%EV -7.29%E -4.77%K -13.76%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.33%EV -9.38%E -1.56%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -8.86%E -2.36%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-30 23:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.09%EV -7.90%E -5.20%K -15.19%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.22%EV -9.38%E -1.56%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.69%EV -10.08%E -2.72%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-30 23:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.80%EV -9.11%E -6.07%K -18.22%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.20%EV -9.38%E -1.56%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -7.65%E -2.01%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-30 23:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 59.68%EV -7.90%E -5.20%K -15.19%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.12%EV -9.38%E -1.56%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.20%EV -12.51%E -3.47%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-07-30 23:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 61.35%EV -13.35%E -9.34%K -31.05%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.62%EV -9.38%E -1.56%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.03%EV -11.29%E -3.09%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-07-31 00:04 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.37%EV -10.32%E -6.97%K -21.51%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.14%EV -10.89%E -1.85%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.48%EV -11.29%E -3.09%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-07-30 23:49 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.86%EV -9.11%E -6.07%K -18.22%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.74%EV -12.40%E -2.14%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.41%EV -5.22%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-30 23:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.61%EV -9.11%E -6.07%K -18.22%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.55%EV -13.15%E -2.29%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -12.51%E -3.47%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-31 00:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 60.31%EV -9.72%E -6.52%K -19.83%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.05%EV -15.42%E -2.75%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.65%EV -7.65%E -2.01%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-07-30 23:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.05% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.38% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.57% | 1.0% | 2026-07-31 00:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.05% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.38% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.57% | 1.0% | 2026-07-31 00:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.05% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.38% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.57% | 1.0% | 2026-07-31 00:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 62.82% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.70% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.48% | 1.4% | 2026-07-31 00:10 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.74% | 6.67I 14.99%NM 14.72% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.54% | 1.9% | 2026-07-31 00:05 |