Independiente v Newells Old Boys

2026-07-31 00:15 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

54%

18%

28%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Independiente (Local)

Prediction 54.21%1.84fair odd

EV -4.05%

Edge -2.29%

Kelly -5.26%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

51.96%54.19%54.21%54.51%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.581.671.691.7763%60%59%56%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Newells Old Boys (Visit)

Prediction 18.04%5.54fair odd

EV -4.57%

Edge -0.863%

Kelly -1.06%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

17.82%18.11%18.04%20.04%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

4.334.884.905.2923%21%20%19%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 27.75%3.60fair odd

EV -4.26%

Edge -1.24%

Kelly -1.74%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

27.14%27.70%27.75%28.02%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

3.053.263.333.4533%31%30%29%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Fanatics	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.83%EV -4.05%E -2.29%K -5.26%G +0.000%	5.25I 19.05%NM 18.15%EV -5.29%E -1.01%K -1.24%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 28.02%EV -5.65%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-07-17 16:59
1xBet	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.23%EV -5.13%E -2.93%K -6.85%G +0.000%	5.29I 18.90%NM 17.94%EV -4.57%E -0.863%K -1.06%G +0.000%	3.41I 29.33%NM 27.83%EV -5.37%E -1.58%K -2.23%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-17 18:04
SportsBet	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.13%EV -6.22%E -3.59%K -8.52%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.73%EV -9.80%E -1.96%K -2.45%G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99%NM 27.14%EV -4.26%E -1.24%K -1.74%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-07-17 16:24
Marathon Bet	1.72I 58.14%NM 54.22%EV -6.76%E -3.93%K -9.39%G +0.000%	5.20I 19.23%NM 17.94%EV -6.19%E -1.19%K -1.47%G +0.000%	3.35I 29.85%NM 27.84%EV -7.04%E -2.10%K -2.99%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-07-17 18:04
FanDuel	1.71I 58.48%NM 54.20%EV -7.30%E -4.27%K -10.28%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.54%EV -9.80%E -1.96%K -2.45%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -5.65%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-07-17 16:23
Codere (IT)	1.70I 58.82%NM 54.51%EV -7.84%E -4.61%K -11.21%G +0.000%	5.20I 19.23%NM 17.82%EV -6.19%E -1.19%K -1.47%G +0.000%	3.35I 29.85%NM 27.66%EV -7.04%E -2.10%K -2.99%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-07-17 16:49
Paddy Power	1.67I 59.88%NM 53.83%EV -9.47%E -5.67%K -14.14%G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05%NM 18.93%EV -14.31%E -3.01%K -3.82%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -8.42%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%	11.2%	2026-07-17 16:29
Sky Bet	1.67I 59.88%NM 51.96%EV -9.47%E -5.67%K -14.14%G +0.000%	4.33I 23.09%NM 20.04%EV -21.88%E -5.05%K -6.57%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 27.99%EV -13.97%E -4.51%K -6.65%G +0.000%	15.2%	2026-07-17 16:24
Winamax (DE)	1.62I 61.73%NM 53.81%EV -12.18%E -7.52%K -19.65%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 18.95%EV -17.01%E -3.70%K -4.73%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 27.24%EV -11.20%E -3.50%K -5.09%G +0.000%	14.7%	2026-07-17 16:49
Betclic (FR)	1.59I 62.89%NM 54.23%EV -13.81%E -8.68%K -23.40%G +0.000%	4.80I 20.83%NM 17.96%EV -13.41%E -2.79%K -3.53%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 27.81%EV -13.97%E -4.51%K -6.65%G +0.000%	16.0%	2026-07-17 16:49
Unibet (FR)	1.58I 63.29%NM 53.93%EV -14.35%E -9.08%K -24.74%G +0.000%	4.70I 21.28%NM 18.13%EV -15.21%E -3.24%K -4.11%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 27.94%EV -15.36%E -5.04%K -7.49%G +0.000%	17.4%	2026-07-17 16:49
Winamax (FR)	1.58I 63.29%NM 53.27%EV -14.35%E -9.08%K -24.74%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 19.13%EV -20.62%E -4.69%K -6.07%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 27.60%EV -15.36%E -5.04%K -7.49%G +0.000%	18.8%	2026-07-17 16:50

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.